The IBD Experiment: Trade $100k into $1M In (4) Years

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At EliteTrader.com, I know, the majority that frequent the site have an strong affinity towards day-trading. That being said, I'm sure many have strong ties to <u>long-term investing</u>.

I follow these results (http://www.canslimpc.com/MonthlyReport.pdf),

canslimpc2011nov.jpg


because I believe it to closely resemble a truly successful approach - one that can capitalizes using a high growth strategy for many, many years.

This, of course, is the underlying principle behind the miracle of compounding. :p

As illustrated, the early bear market malaise of the prior decade was avoided, while strong gains were added, beginning very near the exact bottom in 2003 and beyond.

Prior to July 2005, results are hypothetical and since ~40% in gains have been added amidst a faltering sublime S&P 500 gain.

Which bring me to the present with The IBD Experiment, that I am happy you are following. With only about 1 trade a month my futures system has gained about 11% (see Profile for more info) in the span of about a year -- which beat this stellar funds' -9% showing.

We can only gain what the market will give, and since 2005 the CAN SLIM Private Clients fund return has been tempered. With a 20% out-performance to even this stellar fund, we only now look forward to even better gains once the market works through it's excesses.

Still, compounding a high average annual return is unlike any other (long- or short-term) trading venture.

- G

It's true we've seen an unprecedented decade, however the basic underlying principle behind the market (human psychology: fear & greed) will (according to IBD) always remain the same.

All told, it can be seen that the featured fund has twice doubled, even during this period. <u>Doubling a fund every 5 years is quite remarkable indeed</u>!

Keep following <b>The IBD Experiment</b> as I look to improve upon even these really good results.
 
Paysense, you probably know this, but the real mutual funds based on "canslim", at least two of them started by O'Neil himself, have been failures. Good luck, nevertheless! I think you'll need that.
 
The Technical Indicator: U.S. markets hold major support

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-markets-hold-major-support-2011-12-13

CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) — While the major benchmarks remain range-bound, the market recovery attempt is intact.

Consider that the S&P 500, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq Composite have each drawn buyers near major support, as detailed below.

The S&P 500’s hourly chart highlights the past three weeks.

The S&P has drawn buyers at first support, bottoming Monday at 1,227.

From current levels, modest resistance holds around 1,240, and is followed by the 200-day moving average, currently 1,262.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials’ near-term backdrop is similar.

Consider that its 200-day moving average currently holds at 11,943, and the index bottomed Monday at 11,940.

Looking ahead, its first notable resistance holds in the 12,200 area, matching the November peak and last week’s close.

And the Nasdaq Composite is also holding a two-week range.

First support now rests just above 2,590. Last week’s low held at 2,592, and the index bottomed Monday at 2,591.

Conversely, initial resistance holds around 2,620, and is followed by the 200-day moving average, currently 2,669.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the Nasdaq is digesting the late-November spike. Resistance holds at the 200-day moving average.

Looking ahead, a violation of the 2,590-to-2,600 area would raise a caution flag, and a break below gap support at 2,582 places the Nasdaq back in the technical muck.

Moving to the Dow, its six-month backdrop remains stronger.

Again, its 200-day moving average currently holds at 11,943, and its recovery attempt is intact barring a violation of this area.

And the S&P 500’s backdrop remains volatile, though technical.

As detailed previously, the bull/bear tension generally rests between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The bigger picture

For better or worse, the U.S. benchmarks are holding a two-week range.

Still, the price action is technical — relatively orderly — and that’s useful.

Returning to the S&P 500’s three-week view makes the point.

As detailed in Monday’s review, two general areas stand out:

* S&P resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently 1,262.
* S&P support spanning from 1,215 to 1,226. The S&P’s 50-day moving average (not illustrated) currently holds at 1,224.

Against this backdrop, the S&P has bottomed this week at 1,227, closely matching support.

Stepping back slightly, consider that the late-November spike was technically impressive — driven by strong volume, and bullish internals — while this month’s pullback has been flat by comparison.

So the S&P is working off its overbought condition, and that’s constructive.

And to the extent that support continues to hold — S&P 1,215 to 1,226 — the market recovery attempt is technically intact.
 
The Technical Indicator: Market bulls challenge the breakdown point

CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) — Market bulls haven’t completely thrown in the towel despite a shaky technical backdrop.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-bulls-challenge-the-breakdown-point-2011-12-20-1225450

In fact, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite have both rallied to significant resistance, detailed below.

The S&P 500’s hourly chart details the past three weeks.

The S&P has drawn sellers at its breakdown point.

Looking ahead, significant resistance spans from 1,226 to 1,231, and is followed by additional overhead in the 1,250 area.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials’ near-term backdrop is similar.

Consider that its breakdown point effectively matches the 200-day moving average, currently 11,936.

The index is trading above this area with Tuesday’s strong start, and its next significant overhead holds just under the 12,200 mark, matching the November peak.

And the Nasdaq Composite’s backdrop remains the weakest.

Its breakdown point — spanning from 2,582 to 2,591 — marks significant resistance, and a retest is underway as this is written.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the Nasdaq has plunged back to “crash” territory, filling the November gap.

Again, first resistance holds in the 2,582-to-2,591 area, and a close higher would mark a first step toward stabilization.

Moving to the Dow, its six-month backdrop is stronger, but doesn’t exactly scream “raging bull.”

Consider that its 200-day moving average currently holds at 11,936, and the index has reclaimed this level in Tuesday’s early action.

On further strength, additional overhead holds around 12,200 — better illustrated on the hourly chart — and is followed by significant resistance at 12,284, matching a four-month high.

And the S&P 500 faces the U.S. markets’ headline technical test.

Two inflection points stand out:

* The S&P’s 50-day moving average, currently 1,230.6.
* The post-breakdown peak of 1,231, better illustrated on the hourly chart.

Technically, a sustained close atop this area would place the brakes on bearish momentum.

The bigger picture

Despite recent weakness, market bulls haven’t completely thrown in the towel.

In fact, the immediate technical test is straightforward.

Consider three different time frames on the S&P 500:

Starting with the S&P 500’s 11-year view, two technical areas stand out.

Specifically:

* S&P resistance at 1,227, matching a former 15-month range top.
* The S&P’s 20-month moving average, currently 1,221.

Against this backdrop, the S&P’s 20-month moving average has been a useful longer-term trending indicator, with a posture higher signaling a bullish bias.

Moving to the S&P’s six-month view, notable resistance holds at 1,231.

Again, this level matches its 50-day moving average, and the late-August peak.

And narrowing to the S&P’s three-week view highlights the tension around these longer-term technical levels.

Consider that the index topped late last week at 1,231, matching resistance on the longer-term charts.

Summing up the backdrop

The S&P 500 is trading in the low 1,230’s with Tuesday’s strong start — just above major resistance

At the same time, the Nasdaq is challenging its breakdown point spanning from about 2,580 to 2,590.

And from a technical standpoint, these areas would be expected to draw sellers on the second retest.

Nonetheless, price action ultimately sets the tone, and a close above resistance would place the brakes on bearish momentum.

All told, a tactical approach remains warranted — this isn’t an “all-in” market on either side of the trade — and Tuesday’s response to resistance should add color to the technical backdrop.
 
12/22/2011
6 Market Signals To Look For Before Investing In 2012
William Scott O'Neil, Contributor

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...signals-to-look-for-before-investing-in-2012/

Anyone trying to predict next year’s stock market is nuts. No one can consistently and accurately foresee what the market will do, especially this news driven market. Nonetheless, there is no shortage of people predicting that 2012 will be a good, even a great year. Most are citing low stock valuations that “continue getting better.” Others have noted that election years are typically good for the stock market. While both predictions contain some factual evidence, at the end of the day, all predictions are ultimately opinions. And positioning now for a theoretical rally based on an opinion is dangerous.

MarketSmiths do not invest based on predictions. We invest based on facts and proper market interpretation. We hold a set of expectations for what a healthy market should do, then before we commit capital to the market, we wait for confirmation that those expectations have been met.

For example, after a new rally in the market begins, we look for confirmation of strength and institutional participation in the form of a follow through day (FTD): a day where a major index is up at least 1.7% in price with higher volume than the previous day. A great example is the NASDAQ FTD on October 18, 1990. Typically this occurs 4-7 days after a new rally begins and significantly increases the chances of a sustainable uptrend. No bull market has ever started without one. We also look for technical strength and recognizable chart patterns on leading growth stocks with the emergence of leadership in traditional growth industry groups.

Waiting for confirmation allows us to protect our capital for the next bull market. Being patient can be difficult, but it is reassuring to know that if a new rally is real, there will be plenty of stocks to choose from and time to capitalize on it.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have a good market to operate in. But before investing aggressively on the long side in 2012, investors should be looking for the environment to prove itself in the following ways:

* A FTD, as described above, accompanied by leading stocks breaking out from sound consolidation areas (recognizable chart patterns).
* Because the market environment has been so poor, I’d like to see a second FTD. Given the lack of conviction seen in individual stock breakouts and weak rally attempts lately, the next market rally needs to prove itself, in a big way.
* I’d like to see at least one real catalyst. None of the major economic or political issues weighing on the market have been resolved.
* I’d also like to see more new issues in the IPO market. (splashy IPOs such as Zynga and LinkedIn aren’t enough)
* New leadership should be emerging in traditional growth industry groups (such as, financial, technology, retail).
* Fewer short setups on leading growth stocks and more constructive long chart patterns.

Keep in mind these are not predictions, but rather expectations that may or may not be met. Until they are, keep your powder dry and your watch list fresh. Our day will come.
 
Quote from paysense:

12/22/2011
6 Market Signals To Look For Before Investing In 2012
William Scott O'Neil, Contributor

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...signals-to-look-for-before-investing-in-2012/

Anyone trying to predict next year’s stock market is nuts. No one can consistently and accurately foresee what the market will do, especially this news driven market. Nonetheless, there is no shortage of people predicting that 2012 will be a good, even a great year. Most are citing low stock valuations that “continue getting better.” Others have noted that election years are typically good for the stock market. While both predictions contain some factual evidence, at the end of the day, all predictions are ultimately opinions. And positioning now for a theoretical rally based on an opinion is dangerous.

MarketSmiths do not invest based on predictions. We invest based on facts and proper market interpretation. We hold a set of expectations for what a healthy market should do, then before we commit capital to the market, we wait for confirmation that those expectations have been met.

For example, after a new rally in the market begins, we look for confirmation of strength and institutional participation in the form of a follow through day (FTD): a day where a major index is up at least 1.7% in price with higher volume than the previous day. A great example is the NASDAQ FTD on October 18, 1990. Typically this occurs 4-7 days after a new rally begins and significantly increases the chances of a sustainable uptrend. No bull market has ever started without one. We also look for technical strength and recognizable chart patterns on leading growth stocks with the emergence of leadership in traditional growth industry groups.

Waiting for confirmation allows us to protect our capital for the next bull market. Being patient can be difficult, but it is reassuring to know that if a new rally is real, there will be plenty of stocks to choose from and time to capitalize on it.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have a good market to operate in. But before investing aggressively on the long side in 2012, investors should be looking for the environment to prove itself in the following ways:

* A FTD, as described above, accompanied by leading stocks breaking out from sound consolidation areas (recognizable chart patterns).
* Because the market environment has been so poor, I’d like to see a second FTD. Given the lack of conviction seen in individual stock breakouts and weak rally attempts lately, the next market rally needs to prove itself, in a big way.
* I’d like to see at least one real catalyst. None of the major economic or political issues weighing on the market have been resolved.
* I’d also like to see more new issues in the IPO market. (splashy IPOs such as Zynga and LinkedIn aren’t enough)
* New leadership should be emerging in traditional growth industry groups (such as, financial, technology, retail).
* Fewer short setups on leading growth stocks and more constructive long chart patterns.

Keep in mind these are not predictions, but rather expectations that may or may not be met. Until they are, keep your powder dry and your watch list fresh. Our day will come.

this is a buy the dips and sell the rips market.
 
India tycoon's got tons of cash, nowhere to invest

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-tycoons-got-tons-cash-064653323.html

Indian billionaire with $3.8 billion pile of cash can't find worthy domestic investment

Associated Press
By Erika Kinetz
Dec 27, 2011 10:12 AM EST

MUMBAI, India (AP) -- Ajay Piramal is sitting on a mountain of cash. Yet the billionaire Indian tycoon, working in one of the world's fastest growing economies, is struggling to figure out what to do with the money.

The problem isn't opportunity, he said. It's India.

"Every large investment, there was no transparency," Piramal said.

His dilemma is a worrying sign for India. With the country mired in corruption, bureaucratic red tape and unclear and changing government policies, many of the men who made their billions here are saying maybe it's time to quit India. It's got to be easier to do business elsewhere.

In May last year, Piramal's healthcare business sold its generic drug operations to U.S. pharmaceutical giant Abbott Laboratories for $3.8 billion. Piramal, a tall big man in a country that still measures prosperity by girth, was eager to set that cash pile to work. He wanted to expand one of his chemical plants, but was told it would take five years.

"The same plant could be set up in China in two years," he said. "I love India, but my customer is not going to wait."

India, still a beacon of relatively fast growth despite a troubled world economy, should be a magnet for capital. Instead, since the beginning of 2010, the amount that Indians have invested in businesses overseas has exceeded the amount foreigners are investing in India, according to central bank figures.

In part this reflects the confidence and aptitude of India's maturing companies and the current malaise in the global economy and financial markets. But it also reflects deep problems at home. India's big coporations may be cash rich but the failure to invest that money domestically is bad news for a developing country that needs capital to build the roads, power plants and food warehouses that could help lift hundreds of millions out of dire poverty.

The frustration of India's business elite with corruption, political paralysis, log-jammed approvals, regulatory flip-flops, lack of access to natural resources and land acquisition battles — to pick a few of the top complaints — has reached a pitch perhaps not heard since India began liberalizing its economy in the early 1990s.

"If you are an honest businessman in India, it's very difficult to start up anything," said Jamshyd Godrej, chairman of manufacturing giant Godrej & Boyce. "Companies are going to operate where they see the best opportunities and efficiency for their capital."

Increasingly, that's outside India.

In 2008, foreigners poured roughly twice as much direct investment into India — $33 billion — as Indians plowed into businesses overseas. By 2010, that had reversed: Indians invested $40 billion abroad — twice as much as foreigners invested in India — a trend that's continued this year.

There is another, unspoken element to all the complaints. To the extent that business in India ran on corruption, some of the old, dirty ways of doing things are being disrupted, freezing India's already glacial bureaucracy, business leaders say.

Scandals in the staging of the Commonwealth Games, the pilfering of homes meant for war widows and the irregular auction of cellphone spectrum that cost the country billions has sent parliamentarians and even a Cabinet minister to prison.

With Indians tiring of the incessant graft, tens of thousands of middle-class protesters poured into the streets and pushed an anti-corruption bill onto the floor of Parliament.

Steelmakers can't get enough iron ore because a massive mining scandal in the southern state of Karnataka prompted a court to order the closure of illicit mines that account for a fifth of iron ore production in the country.

The bureaucrats — even the honest ones — are reportedly so scared of being punished they are refusing to make the decisions needed to make the country run.

Piramal is not unpatriotic. Each room in his executive suite is named after an Indian epic hero: Arjuna, the most pure; Dhananjay, acquirer and master of wealth. There's a quote from the Upanishads scriptures on the wall.

His office sits in a one million square foot office park in Mumbai his family built. The buildings around him — white with blue glass that flashes back the unforgiving sun — bear his own name in large black letters: Piramal Towers.

Piramal had the will and the means to build power plants and roads.

Instead, his Piramal Group's largest investment to date has been in one of the office park's tenants: the Indian subsidiary of the British telecom giant Vodafone Plc.

Last September, when he got the first payout, of $2.2 billion, from Abbott, the phone started ringing.

"Because people knew we had money, we had so many people approaching us for projects in the infrastructure sector," he said. "These people had no experience and no knowledge and no track record of having built a business in any area. And yet they were coming to us saying we have licenses and approvals. That just didn't sound right or smell right."

Each day, they paraded through his office: The investment banker who decided to build a 500 megawatt power plant, the coal trader assured of a government coal allocation, small-time miners with pretty presentations promising land, licenses and financing.

"They'd name politicians from the center and the state who had it all tied up for them," he said. "It didn't sound right. Obviously there were things going on in the system."

Road and port projects weren't much better, he said.

Piramal also looked at investing in engineering and infrastructure services companies, but couldn't make sense of their books.

"We couldn't find anything," he said. "People get greedy. In their desire to get good valuations they resort to, if I can say, creative accounting."

Today, India's infrastructure companies are known as great wealth destroyers.

"Infrastructure investment has become untouchable, a sure way of losing money," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of research at SMC Global Securities. He calculates that four of India's top infrastructure companies — GMR Infrastructure, GVK Power and Infrastructure, Lanco Infratech and Punj Lloyd — have lost over 80 percent of their value since 2007. A fifth, Larson & Toubro is down 50 percent.

Piramal may have dodged a bullet, but shareholders in Piramal Healthcare aren't happy. Despite a $600 million special dividend and share buyback, the share price has sagged since the Abbott deal was announced on May 21 last year. They'd like to see the Abbott cash productively deployed. Instead, much of it is sitting in fixed deposit accounts.

Piramal said he really does want to run a pharmaceutical company and be the first Indian company to discover a world-class drug — despite his dabbling in telecom, financial services and real estate financing. It's just that pharma can't absorb all his cash. He plans to sell the 5.5 percent stake he picked up in Vodafone Essar for $640 million in a few years, when Vodafone Essar issues shares in an initial public offering, he said.

He has also launched Piramal Capital, to make real estate and infrastructure loans, and spent about $50 million to acquire IndiaReit, a real estate investment company.

Meanwhile, his thoughts have turned to Boston, where he set up IndUS Growth Partners with a professor from Harvard Business School to look for buying opportunities in the U.S., in security, financial services and biotechnology. And he said he's still planning to spend over a billion dollars on biotechnology acquisitions in North America and Europe.

"India was going more towards capitalism than socialism," Piramal said. "I think we're going back. Capitalism went to too much excess. Corruption levels went to the extreme."

He said he'll announce his first overseas acquisition by March.
 
The Technical Indicator: Charting a strong 2012 start

CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) — The major U.S. benchmarks have started 2012 with a bang.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charting-a-strong-2012-start-2012-01-03-123990

In fact, each benchmark has knifed from significant resistance, though the question now is sustainability and follow through.

More plainly, is Tuesday’s spike a first-day-of-the-year wonder?

The S&P 500’s six-month chart includes Tuesday’s early action.

The S&P has spiked atop overhead at its 200-day moving average, raising the flag to a primary trend shift.

On further strength, next resistance holds at the October peak of 1,292.

Conversely, first support rests at 1,269 — matching last week’s high — and is followed by the 200-day moving average, currently 1,259.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is outpacing the other benchmarks.

In its case, the index has spiked to five-month highs, confirming its recovery attempt.

From current levels, the breakout point rests around 12,290 marking its first significant support.

Conversely, next resistance holds at the June peak of 12,570, and is followed by major overhead around 12,753, matching the July peak.

And the Nasdaq Composite has also come to life, though it’s lagging behind the broader markets.

The index has gapped atop the 50-day moving average and a two-month downtrend.

Moreover, it’s challenging the 200-day moving average, currently 2,660.6, and this area marks the bull/bear battleground.

Looking ahead, next resistance holds at the December peak of 2,674.

Conversely, support points hold at 2,657 and 2,633 bracketing the top, and bottom, of this week’s gap.

The bigger picture

As detailed above, the U.S. markets have started 2012 on a strong note.

Nonetheless, the backdrop remains bifurcated, with the Dow industrials leading the markets while the Nasdaq Composite lags behind.

Fortunately, the S&P 500 is the most widely-tracked, and most representative major benchmark, and its backdrop serves as a useful proxy for the bigger picture.

Two technical areas stand out:

* S&P resistance at the October peak of 1,292.
* S&P support at the 200-day moving average, currently 1,259.

As always, the 200-day moving average generally defines the longer-term trend, with a posture higher signaling a primary uptrend.

Meanwhile, the first day of the year traditionally carries a bullish bias, raising a question mark as to sustainability and follow through.

Nonetheless, price action trumps other indicators — as well as seasonal considerations — and the S&P’s path of least resistance technically points higher barring a violation of the 200-day. Its response to this area is worth tracking.

And looking ahead, a break from the October peak would mark a “higher high” further strengthening the bull case.
 
2011 was a wild & crazy year. In the end, the indexes finished about where they started. We managed modest (hypothetical) gains, relative to our expected heady average.

Our proven, successful, long-term trading systems may take a while to appear as such, since "risk-adjusted" returns are...appropriately tempered. All told <i>we not only beat the market</i>, but came in well ahead of what I consider <b>the two very best trading system approaches:</b> Bouchard Capital - http://autumngold.com/Advisor/Statistics/cta_profile.php?id=113479 (successor to Chris Freeman's C2 system, <b>Exlence</b>) & CANSLIM Private Clients - http://www.canslimpc.com/MonthlyReport.pdf

These true long-term trading successes make a bucket-load, both for clients and managers.

Hypothetical results show that my <b>Futures System</b> gained 9.78%, while my <b>ETF System</b> gained 6.16% in 2011, versus 0% for the S&P 500, 9.8% <i>loss</i> (thru November) for CANSLIM Private Clients and 1.91% <i>loss</i> (thru November) for Bouchard Capital.

My 2011 Futures System:

futures_11.jpg


My 2011 ETF System:

etf_10.jpg


Our EOD 100% mechanical futures system, according to hypothetical results now tracked for nearly 15 months by C2, is now up 14.79% versus the S&P 500's 9.94% rise.

Our EOD 100% mechanical ETF system, according to hypothetical results now tracked for nearly 13.5 months by C2, is now up 4.22% versus the S&P 500's 6.59% rise.

<u>Best to all in 2012!</u>
 
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