I am not attempting to make an argument against Base Rate Fallacy.
Just plug 42% into the model rather than 95% efficacy rate and then look at the numbers.
Ok...I misunderstood.
Also, I don't have access to the % of use for each of those vaccines being used in Iceland. I think you keep mentioning 42% in reference to Pfizer that may have (they used the words
"may be") for what was occurring in
Minnesota in which the study has
not yet been peer-reviewed.
Personally, I'm not interested in efficacy dropping because I learned in college... it's normal for efficacy to decline from month to month and from year to year.
Yet, I'm more interested in a vaccine's ability to prevent
hospitalization,
ICU admissions, and
death.
You mention Pfizer but I'm fully vaccinated with Moderna. Thus, I'll compare the two.
- Both were also highly effective against hospitalization (Moderna 91.6%, Pfizer 85%), ICU admission (Moderna 93.3%, Pfizer 87%), and death from COVID-19 (no cases found).
Excellent vaccine numbers in my opinion because the above three categories (e.g. hospitalization, ICU admission, deaths) are what people should be using to decide if they're going to be vaccinated and then which vaccine they want to be vaccinated with.
In fact, there's a growing phenomenon called "Vaccine Tourism" in which the elite are traveling to countries that offer a specific vaccine with those types of good numbers.
Don't misunderstand, I'm not trying to convince you to be vaccinated. I'm fully vaccinated for a while, so are my teenagers and family members living in other countries.
I'm using my academic background in Immunology and Genetics plus the help of a few family members that are Doctors / Nurses with my Doctor to navigate this Pandemic clusterfuck.
- Fuck anyone that's not vaccinated and refuses to wear a face mask...trying to put others in danger.
wrbtrader
