The Herd, Vaccine and Natural Immunity Thread....
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
We bounce back after wars, we bounce back after this and there will be dividends in new medicine. A lot of the planet had three months to think, whats coming will be interesting.
The majority of humanity want to preserve life and have taken the higher path. A three fifths compromise or similar on the value of older lives, I'm afraid not.
Full lockdown early has multiple advantages. You always delay death and this oh the economy stuff, shit happens sometimes. We could have caught an asteroid, surprise super volcano. The humans have been getting pretty complacent, a common cause crisis has come, let's get the most out of it.
There is cool stuff coming, always is after such a large scale event.
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Reply to your post is inline, below,
="jem, post: 5138251, member: 8212"]good question...
I like evidence too.
so think about this .
the under 30 group who is healthy dies about as much from this virus as the flu.
for instance in my area San Diego there are no deaths for people under 19 and 3 deaths under 30. And if you know people in hospitals these facts were apparent to everyone in health care within days. Old people with co morbidity... very deadly. Young people who are healthy... its the flu. People die from the flu.. but we don't destroy peoples lives all over the country for it.
Hopefully you are not characterizing wearing PPE as “Destroy peoples lives all over the country for it”.
so would the proper strategy be to isolate the high risk and let those under 30 in San Diego live life and work? I think that was the case here and for 95% of the country.
On the surface, the strategy of vulnerable groups taking steps to protect themselves seems most efficient, however we allow this virus to become fully integrated with our population, any lapse in protection of older people can have serious consequences. In addition, vulnerable groups may require less vulnerable groups(Who may be infected) to assist them. Of course, care providers are required to wear protection when providing care to vulnerable groups.
Another aspect to consider is the massive descretionary spending of the Baby Boomers. Should this group fear eating out or travelling because they feel their health is at risk, there will be severe economic repercussions for certain industries. However, Boomer spending may evolve to activities that can done at home, similar to “Nesting” activity post 9-11.
Those who are aged thirty or forty something are next up for serious complications of this disease if it is still endemic as they age. What happens when Covid-19 mutates, as other influenza viruses do? We know Covid-19 mutates because it is zoonotic, that is, it leap from one species, possibly bats to humans, and the alleged fact there are currently two different strains in the United States right now. The strains are called the “West Coast strain” and the more deadly “East Coast strain”.
A significant number of Asians have been wearing PPE ever since SARS, showing it is possible for a population to adapt to prevailing conditions. It seems these PPE wearing Asians have not “Had their lives destroyed all over the country for it”.
We knew all this very early on because Italy released their data. Old people with comorbidities were dying. The whole time we knew hospitals in most areas around the country were well below capacity.
People without comorbidities are dying as well, although obviously in much smaller numbers. What about the 15% of people who come down with severe disease? They survive, but they become short or long term disabled and now have a comorbidity in a country that does not take Covid-19 seriously. Imagine the impact of a forty something becoming disabled or impaired because of this virus. How about impact of long term human suffering and financial implications to his family or to certain parts of our economic system?
Now as we open up we target areas where there are clusters. We tailor responses to how this virus spreads and we keep hospitals open by customizing are responses to local areas.
Read the above statement again. Read it and think about what you are saying. Think about it HARD. We live in a society that is highly mobile, whether it is commuting a couple of hours each day to work or travelling. In other words, a virus outbreak in one area of our country will almost always manifest itself in an outbreak elsewhere.
How do we tell if there has been an outbreak? People start feeling sick starting after the typical 4 to 5 day, although sometimes as long as 14 day incubation period. Many people delay seeking medical treatment for several days after feeling sick. So these patients have been asymptomatic for the incubation period and potentially infecting others with this respiratory virus for several days. What has this infected person been doing while they are infectious? That’s right, many of them have been travelling. To work, to schools, to restaurants, to airports, to theaters, to sporting events, on vacation. The people this infectious person meets along the way also travel. Hopefully now you are getting the picture why diligent wearing of PPE is so important.
I do think that if people go into crowded spots like bars they should consent to downloading a testing and tracing app. So they can be tested and traced if a cluster breaks out.
Sounds resource intensive and not effective for reasons stated above.
How to handle Covid-19 is not rocket science. Our guy fooked up, plain and simple. I hate it, but lets own it and move on. By owning it and moving on, I mean recognizing Covid-19 as the serious disease it is and agreeing to take protective measures.
It is almost as if God said “Get along, or else!”. Indeed, if we don’t cooperate, this virus will remain a scourge for generations to come, with every person as they age doing a roll of the dice each time they get reinfected.
="jem, post: 5138251, member: 8212"]good question...
I like evidence too.
so think about this .
the under 30 group who is healthy dies about as much from this virus as the flu.
for instance in my area San Diego there are no deaths for people under 19 and 3 deaths under 30. And if you know people in hospitals these facts were apparent to everyone in health care within days. Old people with co morbidity... very deadly. Young people who are healthy... its the flu. People die from the flu.. but we don't destroy peoples lives all over the country for it.
Hopefully you are not characterizing wearing PPE as “Destroy peoples lives all over the country for it”.
so would the proper strategy be to isolate the high risk and let those under 30 in San Diego live life and work? I think that was the case here and for 95% of the country.
On the surface, the strategy of vulnerable groups taking steps to protect themselves seems most efficient, however we allow this virus to become fully integrated with our population, any lapse in protection of older people can have serious consequences. In addition, vulnerable groups may require less vulnerable groups(Who may be infected) to assist them. Of course, care providers are required to wear protection when providing care to vulnerable groups.
Another aspect to consider is the massive descretionary spending of the Baby Boomers. Should this group fear eating out or travelling because they feel their health is at risk, there will be severe economic repercussions for certain industries. However, Boomer spending may evolve to activities that can done at home, similar to “Nesting” activity post 9-11.
Those who are aged thirty or forty something are next up for serious complications of this disease if it is still endemic as they age. What happens when Covid-19 mutates, as other influenza viruses do? We know Covid-19 mutates because it is zoonotic, that is, it leap from one species, possibly bats to humans, and the alleged fact there are currently two different strains in the United States right now. The strains are called the “West Coast strain” and the more deadly “East Coast strain”.
A significant number of Asians have been wearing PPE ever since SARS, showing it is possible for a population to adapt to prevailing conditions. It seems these PPE wearing Asians have not “Had their lives destroyed all over the country for it”.
We knew all this very early on because Italy released their data. Old people with comorbidities were dying. The whole time we knew hospitals in most areas around the country were well below capacity.
People without comorbidities are dying as well, although obviously in much smaller numbers. What about the 15% of people who come down with severe disease? They survive, but they become short or long term disabled and now have a comorbidity in a country that does not take Covid-19 seriously. Imagine the impact of a forty something becoming disabled or impaired because of this virus. How about impact of long term human suffering and financial implications to his family or to certain parts of our economic system?
Now as we open up we target areas where there are clusters. We tailor responses to how this virus spreads and we keep hospitals open by customizing are responses to local areas.
Read the above statement again. Read it and think about what you are saying. Think about it HARD. We live in a society that is highly mobile, whether it is commuting a couple of hours each day to work or travelling. In other words, a virus outbreak in one area of our country will almost always manifest itself in an outbreak elsewhere.
How do we tell if there has been an outbreak? People start feeling sick starting after the typical 4 to 5 day, although sometimes as long as 14 day incubation period. Many people delay seeking medical treatment for several days after feeling sick. So these patients have been asymptomatic for the incubation period and potentially infecting others with this respiratory virus for several days. What has this infected person been doing while they are infectious? That’s right, many of them have been travelling. To work, to schools, to restaurants, to airports, to theaters, to sporting events, on vacation. The people this infectious person meets along the way also travel. Hopefully now you are getting the picture why diligent wearing of PPE is so important.
I do think that if people go into crowded spots like bars they should consent to downloading a testing and tracing app. So they can be tested and traced if a cluster breaks out.
Sounds resource intensive and not effective for reasons stated above.
How to handle Covid-19 is not rocket science. Our guy fooked up, plain and simple. I hate it, but lets own it and move on. By owning it and moving on, I mean recognizing Covid-19 as the serious disease it is and agreeing to take protective measures.
It is almost as if God said “Get along, or else!”. Indeed, if we don’t cooperate, this virus will remain a scourge for generations to come, with every person as they age doing a roll of the dice each time they get reinfected.
Definately denial. Recognizing this virus means admitting Trump screwed up. It also means the inconvenience of wearing PPE in public places and possibly work. There are also long term economic dislocations that will likely weigh on certain industries.
We live in a new reality now and it is best to recognize this fact and adjust to it. By adjusting, I mean Conservatives doing more than replaying 2016 YouTube election victory videos while in their basements.
Your post above makes the cost of my ET subscription so worth it!
The risks of bioterrorism are reduced with people wearing PPE. It seems likely there will ultimately be a greater sense of community out of this crisis, as more and more see things as “We are all in this together” and that “What I do and what the other guy does effect us both”. I can see complacency and pettiness declining as people gain better focus on things that are more real.
History shows when a population group comes under a stressor, it usually come out stronger than it was. Never mind those population groups we don’t hear about anymore!
The younger generations might turn out quite formatible, I mean formidable, given their relatively large numbers “Participating” in “protests”, when they mature.
Kudos for displaying a state of macro awareness and compiling an intelligent, vitriol free post. It's indeed an interesting slice in time. Being present in a micro dot of history that will eventually be rendered a fulcrum in the teeter totter of humanity's grappling with unbounded freedom to create is instructive.
1. If your only argument is that we should wear ppe and social distance... OK.
We have difference of opinion. The vast majority of studies that actually tried to test masks have shown no efficacy. But a few of the recent studies lump them in with social distancing and observe they may have worked.
We can have a difference of opinion on that. I think social distancing is useful in that it should help prevent large groups from fitting inside small rooms with bad ventilation.
That is where this virus is spread by the super spreaders and where clusters begin.
2. Shut down of low risk groups.
With respect to that...
you did not balance the harm the shutdown causes against the benefit.
Sure if you look at the benefit some lives are saved. Some health benefits maybe be saved in the short run. But... in the long run many will still have to catch the virus.
Then you need to balance that speculative benefit against
all the damage being done to peoples lives and health.
Shutdown also kills people.
Shutdown also destroys lives in the long run and the short.
We have also suffered a massive delusion about the costs.
3. The short run delusion of spending trillions...
Trillions have been spent without being earned.
While the fed creates trillions out of thin air, our states do not.
We have been living a financial delusion.
There will likely be heavy payment paid by many in the future from inflation to taxes to state jobs and retirement programs.
Summary
The shutdown of low risk groups was never supported by data or science. It did very little good after the first 3 weeks and has caused massive harm.
We can not just look at the benefits, if we wish to really determine the best course of action.
We have difference of opinion. The vast majority of studies that actually tried to test masks have shown no efficacy. But a few of the recent studies lump them in with social distancing and observe they may have worked.
We can have a difference of opinion on that. I think social distancing is useful in that it should help prevent large groups from fitting inside small rooms with bad ventilation.
That is where this virus is spread by the super spreaders and where clusters begin.
2. Shut down of low risk groups.
With respect to that...
you did not balance the harm the shutdown causes against the benefit.
Sure if you look at the benefit some lives are saved. Some health benefits maybe be saved in the short run. But... in the long run many will still have to catch the virus.
Then you need to balance that speculative benefit against
all the damage being done to peoples lives and health.
Shutdown also kills people.
Shutdown also destroys lives in the long run and the short.
We have also suffered a massive delusion about the costs.
3. The short run delusion of spending trillions...
Trillions have been spent without being earned.
While the fed creates trillions out of thin air, our states do not.
We have been living a financial delusion.
There will likely be heavy payment paid by many in the future from inflation to taxes to state jobs and retirement programs.
Summary
The shutdown of low risk groups was never supported by data or science. It did very little good after the first 3 weeks and has caused massive harm.
We can not just look at the benefits, if we wish to really determine the best course of action.
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Some communities and states simply chose their path and we can't do anything about it. What will be a battle will be how can we isolate those situations and not spread the problems created into our own communities and homes. Many Americans are making this difficult there is a selfishness involved that isn't acceptable in my opinion.
There are two ways to see this. A balance should be struck. But, you are dick for calling the other side selfish... your views are delusional and self centered. Why should those under 30 be locked down when we can accomplish the same thing with more finely tuned measures?
Many older people understand the young should not be punished. You can see it as very selfish of you and those demanding the young and healthy be locked down.
Many older people understand the young should not be punished. You can see it as very selfish of you and those demanding the young and healthy be locked down.
Vietnam, Taiwan and many other countries with experience of prior epidemics and knowing China, shut the heck down in January and sensibly over-reacted until they knew what they were dealing with.
There is no question this was the smart move. It will be the smart move the next time. They are facing neither economic disaster or simply delaying deaths.
There is no question this was the smart move. It will be the smart move the next time. They are facing neither economic disaster or simply delaying deaths.