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The Greece bull market journal
- Thread starter Ghost of Cutten
- Start date
Quote from rsi80:
The Greek stock market has now returned to the level at which GoC started this thread. Would anyone care to provide an update?
Thanks in advance.
Sure - the Greek stock market is back where it was in early 2012, but the situation is far less critical and bad than it was then. The long-term chart is still bullish - higher lows, and higher highs; pullbacks lasting less than rallies, and being smaller etc. Therefore I think it is an excellent opportunity for long-term positions. If I'm wrong then the market should break decisively lower from here, fundamentals fall apart, Greece exits the Euro, market shifts to a long-term downtrend etc.
In a post-crash bull market, bad headlines and deep corrections are usually buy signals not sell signals.
Greece continues to follow the classic post-disaster bull market pattern: most people are pessimistic, fundamentals are poor (but not quite as bad as they were), stocks are cheap, and the price moves higher with periodic corrections big enough to scare most people from investing.
I remain long and I expect we will see significantly higher prices in the years ahead. If you can stomach 30% pullbacks in return for a potential double or triple, Greece is still an interesting investment opportunity.
I remain long and I expect we will see significantly higher prices in the years ahead. If you can stomach 30% pullbacks in return for a potential double or triple, Greece is still an interesting investment opportunity.
Greece continues to follow the classic post-disaster bull market pattern: most people are pessimistic, fundamentals are poor (but not quite as bad as they were), stocks are cheap, and the price moves higher with periodic corrections big enough to scare most people from investing.
I remain long and I expect we will see significantly higher prices in the years ahead. If you can stomach 30% pullbacks in return for a potential double or triple, Greece is still an interesting investment opportunity.
Hmm. So, I bought a hundred NBG in Dec, having seen that it was actually upgraded by Moody's. It's an option, or maybe a lottery ticket. Seeing red on that tiny investment now. Should I scale in in your opinion?
Jan 15 $10 calls are trading @.05
I don't follow Europe. What's preventing NBG from doubling in 2014?
I don't follow Europe. What's preventing NBG from doubling in 2014?
Jan 15 $10 calls are trading @.05
I don't follow Europe. What's preventing NBG from doubling in 2014?
Odd question. It's a bank, which means it's leveraged, by definition. So it could move in either direction fast. Right now, down is it; my basis was 5.69, it's now at 4.90. It's there so if it shows signs of life I'll do something, but right now, nothing.
As the joke goes, massive support at zero. At this rate, we might get there.
Greece continues to follow the classic post-disaster bull market pattern: most people are pessimistic, fundamentals are poor (but not quite as bad as they were), stocks are cheap, and the price moves higher with periodic corrections big enough to scare most people from investing.
I remain long and I expect we will see significantly higher prices in the years ahead. If you can stomach 30% pullbacks in return for a potential double or triple, Greece is still an interesting investment opportunity.
Can you share your specific long position? (eg. long GREK?)
I'm not sure if you've seen this
(http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/greece-needs-another-bailout-before-may.html) but my uneducated guess is that financial markets have not yet started to price in further Greece default concerns described in that article.
What's your opinion of long NBG OTM calls? Expiration maybe 2 years from now.
Hmm. So, I bought a hundred NBG in Dec, having seen that it was actually upgraded by Moody's. It's an option, or maybe a lottery ticket. Seeing red on that tiny investment now. Should I scale in in your opinion?
NBG was downgraded to sell by HSBC analysts in early December.
NBG was downgraded to sell by HSBC analysts in early December.
Eh, whatevs. Biggest risk to NBG is that idiot Erdogan, who is single-handedly destroying Turkey and therefore endangering any value they might get out of a sale of Finansbank.
We'll see how it works out. At this point it's too small for anything but entertainment value anyway.