The Greatest Site Ever To Watch The Housing Bubble Go Pop!

If the public and realtors knew what was happening on the high end in high end places they'd sht. Rich coming in with both feet. Soaring buyer quality. Soaring private cash sales w/o realtors or bank loans whil eeveryone else bleeds to death for years. :D
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

My brother-in-law just sent me this about the WSJ:

"I just read in this weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal about, "Next year, interest rates are set to rise-or "reset"-on $362 Billion worth of adjustable-rate subprime mortgages. Now the real crest of the reset wave is coming, and that promises more pain for borrowers, lenders and Wall Street.""

Don't know any more than this little blurb, but if this is true it's going to just get uglier...
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This is nothing new, In march of 2008 $100 Billion worth of ARMS are going to reset. This housing problem still has years before it finds a bottom. ARMS resetting will send millions of houses into foreclosures.

2007: Right now approx 500,000-600,000 foreclosures

End of 2008: between 1.5-2 Million housing going into foreclosure.

The bottom is far from over, expect a bottom sometime in 2010, flat for a few years, I dont see housing picking up till at least 2013 or further.
 
Quote from S2007S:

The bottom is far from over, expect a bottom sometime in 2010, flat for a few years, I dont see housing picking up till at least 2013 or further.
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Bingo.
Story: buddy of mine got into real estate back in 1988 - pushed by his father who had done so well.
1992: tried to sell his place, no bids at his purchase price.
1994: the same
1996: the same
1999: finally sold at his purchase price: zero percent return

Of course real estate zoomed right after that, but look at that 10 YEAR period....absolutely flat.
Same will happen 2008 -> 2018.
 
Quote from syswizard:

Bingo.
Story: buddy of mine got into real estate back in 1988 - pushed by his father who had done so well.
1992: tried to sell his place, no bids at his purchase price.
1994: the same
1996: the same
1999: finally sold at his purchase price: zero percent return

Of course real estate zoomed right after that, but look at that 10 YEAR period....absolutely flat.
Same will happen 2008 -> 2018.
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I hear stories like that all the time, people buying in the mid 80's and early 90's only to wait 10 years to break even....the same is going to happen now, I have people telling me the time to buy is now and I laugh, this is coming from a guy who has a house in Florida on the market for nearly 12 months, he says buy now for the long term (which I agree) but I know for a fact that housing will come down another 5-10% by the end of 2008. There is still plenty of problems in the housing area which I have stated probably more than 3 dozen times here since mid 2006. I think bankruptcy in the homebuilders along with mergers will complete somewhat of a bottom in housing, after that it will take years before housing prices even start to come back. Remember that foreclosures are still on the rise and that when a house in an area goes into foreclosure it brings down the prices on avg between 5-10k. There are probably another 1.5 million foreclosures in the making by the end of 2008.
 
How is it possible for real estate to be booming in Bahrain and Dubai and at the same time busting in USA, United Kingdom and Europe?

http://www.multi-housingnews.com/mu...stry-news/e3i419b11e3f5ee89b30be232fcbb2bd4c5

Bahrain Real Estate Market Shows No Signs of Slowing Down
Published: November 30, 2007


Manama--Bahrain's real estate sector should see continuous growth next year, the Gulf Daily News reports.

Even with a booming housing supply -- as the first of the real estate projects due for completion in 2008 hit the market --many industry experts are confident construction won't slow down.

"The demand for real estate in the Gulf is increasing as foreign investment is becoming more popular due to the sub-prime crisis in the US," Century 21 Bahrain real estate professional Hind Yassine told the GDN during the Bipex 2007 conference. "The boom in the region is maturing and we expect there to be continuous growth in the sector for the next 10 years.

Citing Bahrain's untapped potential and more centrally located land, Yassine compared it to Dubai, another prospering Middle East construction market.
 
Quote from Hook N. Sinker:

How is it possible for real estate to be booming in Bahrain and Dubai and at the same time busting in USA, United Kingdom and Europe?

http://www.multi-housingnews.com/mu...stry-news/e3i419b11e3f5ee89b30be232fcbb2bd4c5

Bahrain Real Estate Market Shows No Signs of Slowing Down
Published: November 30, 2007


Manama--Bahrain's real estate sector should see continuous growth next year, the Gulf Daily News reports.

Even with a booming housing supply -- as the first of the real estate projects due for completion in 2008 hit the market --many industry experts are confident construction won't slow down.

"The demand for real estate in the Gulf is increasing as foreign investment is becoming more popular due to the sub-prime crisis in the US," Century 21 Bahrain real estate professional Hind Yassine told the GDN during the Bipex 2007 conference. "The boom in the region is maturing and we expect there to be continuous growth in the sector for the next 10 years.

Citing Bahrain's untapped potential and more centrally located land, Yassine compared it to Dubai, another prospering Middle East construction market.
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Because we're fucking overpriced and gave loans to people who had no way of ever paying back or affording it in the first place.

A monthly mortgage payment (30-year fixed amortized principal and interest, taxes, and insurance) should not exceed 1/3rd of the household after-tax income.

That should put the median american home price at around 150k. All this 300k to 500k bullshit in Cali and South Florida will come to a harsh reality quick. Anyone with free cash is going to see some amazing bargains when the dust finally settles.
 
I went to one of those big convention center bank owned real-estate sales around a month ago. 300+ properties about ½ from Countrywide. I was high bidder on 1 but it didn’t meet the reserve and 4 weeks later the told me they are rejecting it. I just checked and Countrywide seems to have around 20% more properties for sale in my area than they did before the auction. My guess is around 60% of the properties sold at the auction.

I still think it is too early to buy but I am building my bank and am planning on going on a spending spree late in 08.
 
275 all cash or mortgage? Does the 35K include your carrying costs, mortgage, taxes, insurance or just upgrades to the house?

You have it under agreement for 352.9k. Is there a broker involved? If so at what percent?

I ask because I have done this for years and see those flip those house shows and they never ever factor in the costs I ask about. It’s always we estimate our profit will be or we sold it for x without accounting for the expenses. If these shows factor these expenses and the taxes that would be owed on any remaining profit you end up with razor slim margins with huge risk.
 
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