The Great Depression Starts Today

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

The world has turned.

Commodities and big name tech getting smoked.

The Dollar (I shorted Euro's last night) has made a bottom. The rally from here could be quick and hard. Despite yield differentials between ECB's and Treasuries making new highs this week the Euro's been breaking.

Treasuries are weak on a day of commodity bearishness and dovish Fed talk.

Stocks? I'm not sure and I'm stuck short there. My guess is stocks break but only after every half ass bear like myself get's smoked. Way too many shorts.

IMO stocks won't test the lows for a few months! Rallies will be muted but I'm open to the notion of SPX trading as high as 1530 again. (hopefully not next week, lol)
More...

I suspect you are right and have been changing from outright longs to option plays as I feel they are more controllable right now, and if anything does go nuts, the gamma will be supportive.

Flight into safety exists for a REASON.

Dollar strength could occur in global weakness. I don't think the turning point is here though, but I do not have a strong conviction.

Commodities ex oil I suspect will remain more bid than expected due to structural issues. Oil is really anyone's guess at this point. While I do expect lower oil prices, with the world situation I don't think its predictable. I remain on the sidelines there.

We're still OK until January, perhaps march. After that - who knows?
 
Im reasonably convinced that the fed did a 180 on rates this week for a reason and it has nothing to do with macro economics, jobs, etc

A major major player is in serious trouble.
 
Agreed the FED is a private bank there for the sole purpose of helping its investors i.e. investment banks.

I put money on it that a BIG investment bank has a real issue with credit default swaps (CDSs) insurance they have issued.

Think about it with all the MBS, CDOs and other AAA rated toxic waste that had CDS's issued against them. With all classes of MBS/CDOs falling in value along with the rating agencies dropping them to junk ratings the CDS insurance is being called upon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap
 
Quote from Trendytrader:

Agreed the FED is a private bank there for the sole purpose of helping its investors i.e. investment banks.

I put money on it that a BIG investment bank has a real issue with credit default swaps (CDSs) insurance they have issued.

Think about it with all the MBS, CDOs and other AAA rated toxic waste that had CDS's issued against them. With all classes of MBS/CDOs falling in value along with the rating agencies dropping them to junk ratings the CDS insurance is being called upon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap
More...

Thanks Trendy. A post that really makes us think, or should. A reason some of us put up with all the crap on ET is for posts like yours. Thanks again.
 
The Great Depression II has been postponed by the Terminator II to coincide with the year Elliott predicted, 2012. :D
They will drag on until the bubble is as big as the earth.

Governor Strikes Deal to Freeze ARM Rates: Rates could be frozen for as long as five years, depending on each individual situation.
http://www.ruthmillsteam.com/real_estate/2_1122_freeze_arm_rates.html

Banks may agree to plan that freezes ARM rates
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/30/real_estate/ARM_rate_freeze/index.htm
Rate freeze plan for ARMs gains traction
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/30/real_estate/ARM_rate_freeze/index.htm
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

Im reasonably convinced that the fed did a 180 on rates this week for a reason and it has nothing to do with macro economics, jobs, etc

A major major player is in serious trouble.
More...

I tend to think this also. The FED knows its hammering the $, even though price stability is their major purpose. I think they are really scared about something, but tight lipped so as not to scare everyone else.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top