the great depression revisited?

I always liked the oral and more informal histories best. Had an uncle that rode freight trains across the country looking for work when he was a young buck.

Maybe ask your grandparents about it if you still have them, or people their age. We're losing them fast, along with the WW2 vets and the last of the great blues and jazz men.

I've recoommended many times Frederick Lewis Allen's classic Only Yesterday - An Informal History of the 1920's published for the first time in 1931.

Lately I've been picking around some in a fascinating website that the family of Pierre Rinfret has kept on line since his death this summer at 82. He was a NY conservative and well versed in economics.

http://www.parida.com/depresarticles.html

or here

http://www.rinfret.com/index.htm

I loved his vignettes on famous pols and economists he knew. He hated a lot of Fed Chairmen of his day.

http://www.parida.com/people.html



It's your history, grab it while you can. Absent the destruction of the United States capital base by some calamity, I don't see something like this in the cards again. Back then the First World was only the US and Europe. These days much of the whole world wants up and I bet they get it!

http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/photoessay.htm
 
Quote from annaland:

Does anyone believe that we may be going into another great depression?
More...

Never going to happen, unless you read the "star" or whatever that paper is called. Apparently on 6-6-06 there was supposed to be a stock market crash. Guess what didn't happen!!

We learned from 1929 and this will never occur again. Simple as that. There will always be recessions but that is about the extent of it.

You want to get out of this - vote DEMOCRAT on the next ticket.
(I would be interested to know how many times a bull market was in effect when the Dem's had office as opposed to those garden shrubs... bushes? ) anyway. . . The answer is NO NO NO

NO depression ever. Look what happened at 9-11 to prevent panic the market was closed for several days. If it did not, we may have had a depression. There are too many powerful brains behind this game.

:cool:
 
Quote from gnome:

I've already got more than my share of debt... I just hope I get in on the debauchery.. and SOON!
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depends on the laws of the country you live in and whether you are willing to go to jail.

what country are you leaving?
what country are you going to?

go for it,guy.

sounds worthwhile to start a thread with your line above.
 
The next great depreesion will happen when Central Banks around the world dump dollars......What might cause them to do that.....My best guess is this....

Article written from a recent Standard and Poors press release........

According to a new report from Standard & Poor's, the U.S. is in serious danger of losing its superior "AAA" credit rating as a result of budget pressures and the impact of a rapidly aging population.
"Unless the government takes measures to cut its fiscal deficit, the country's credit rating would fall to single-A after 2015, and as low as 'BBB' by 2020," S&P said in a press release, according to Reuters.

S&P's chief economist for the United States, David Wyss, says that "unless steps are taken, total age-related public spending will double as a share of gross domestic product to 20% by 2050 from 10% in 2005 ... In this scenario, government deficits and net debt would rise sharply to 29% and 350% of GDP, respectively, by 2050," according to a story in USA Today.

While the famed ratings company reminded that this a projection – and not an actual prediction – it added that such a credit deterioration would bring the U.S. into line with those nations classified with "speculative-grade" sovereign debt ratings, also known as "junk status."

But S&P says this is merely simulation to show the effects of current trends in age-related government spending on credit-worthiness. "In reality, it is highly unlikely that governments will allow debt and deficit burdens to spiral out of control," S&P said.


$COSTAverageMAN
 
Maybe.

Probably in a lot of people's situations, a decline in the USD wouldn't be quite so bad. Yes, you would have trouble with your european and japanese imports, and it might be pricey to get a new 60" flat screen (updated model) for a few years, or some high end ligne roset furniture (which is pricey anyway), but if you're buying that category you might not be so price specific.

Oil would hurt, yes, but eventually we would adjust. And if GM/Ford are turned into multinational conglomerates, there might not be quite so much need to protect those industries, right? The consumer might eventually get access to better/cheaper car tech from China.

And most importantly, between a declining dollar (and a rising yuan in return) manufacturing might be able to return to the states in some manner.

Inflation would return wage growth so long as oil prices don't change with the dollar. That's the big issue. If oil rises in tandem with the dollars decline, I think all bets are off.

I agree with some of the posters that there are some very smart people running this game and keeping it going. Unfortunately, as all of us system traders realize, there are simply times when the model doesn't predict the three sigma event and the sh-t hits the proverbial fan. What happens in that situation is anyone's guess, and that's the most likely cause of global depression and the sack of the dollar - the one we haven't considered.
 
mixed emotions....

the great depression was caused by the following

1. Poor distribution of wealth (not happening now)
2. massive stock market speculation..without short selling as an instrument (without short selling the market is like a ponzi scheme really)
3. few checcks and balances to prevent such an event.


Based on that.......NO.

however, I think there is a new set of circumstances that coul arise.

1. Massive government and personal debt which is unabale *or unwilling) to be paid off
2. Risging interest rates with a falling stock market, and resl estate market
3. Jobs moving over seas
4. political unrest.
5. Fewer international allies willing to help us due to poor realtions


do i think we are heading for recession? without a doubt...one of the biggest in history.

great depression....no..too many checks and balances.
 
Quote from dac8555:



1. Poor distribution of wealth (not happening now)
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You are joking right? No really, I have a very hard time believing you are being serious, cause u never came off as a clueless individual.
This country is turning into Mexico as we speak, middle class is slowly dissipating while the rich are consolidating. Median wages have not risen in almost 10 years while inflation has been chugging along steadily at 5% (much higher actually but let's play pretend where government statistics are reliable. Corruption is rising, both corporate and government while the police forces are being dehumanized and slowly move toward fascist policies under the pretense of the "War on Terror".

Quote from Aok:


Two things eventually end all empires. Debt and debuchery.
More...

I thought it was also cronyism, corruption and moral degradation. The first two have been creeping up for a while but the last has recently started to concern me.
I'm no goody two shoes, but the appeal of such "celebs" as Paris Hilton and the reality shows is quite alarming. Or just the fact that G. Bush was "elected" 2 times, the man is borderline retarded with an administration that cannot mutter an honest word if the whole country depended on it.

My guess for the spark is when a hurricane hits NYC. Just like the fiat money Ponzi scheme, it's not a question of "if" but a question of "when".
 
Quote from dac8555:

the great depression was caused by the following

1. Poor distribution of wealth (not happening now)
2. massive stock market speculation..without short selling as an instrument (without short selling the market is like a ponzi scheme really)
3. few checcks and balances to prevent such an event.

...
More...

The great depression was caused and exacerbated by government intervention.
 
Quote from Aok:

Based on what?

Two things eventually end all empires. Debt and debuchery.
More...


ELIMINATE The privately owned central banks.

The treasury should float its own currency backed by the good faith and credit of the US Government ( read US Taxpayer) . That way the government does'nt have to pay spurious interest rates to private banks.

If the privately owned federal reserve can make money out of thin air, why can't the government? Why can't the goverment create its own currency and not have to pay spurious interest rates. Not only is the taxpayer paying b.s. interest rates, but by allowing a private entity to control interest rates, the citizens have effectively handed the reigns of the economy to a handful of private bankers.

I predict that the Fed keeps on raising interest rates. Maybe there will be a pause, but the rates will go higher. The same thing that happened in the great depression will happen again, after the coming crash, once there is blood in the streets, the private bankers will consolidate even more power and assets will again be bought up very cheaply by those in the know. Once their next few generations of idle rich squander away the family fortune, the game is orchestrated again.
 
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