The game behind BOJ intervention, USD vs JPY
- Thread starter tsfx
- Start date
I respect your analysis but are you actually long too? With real capital?
I dunno how tight you trade but any new high can easily get an intervention type 100 pip gap down where 10-20-30 pip stop losses can get huge slippages.
I dont trade/follow gold but yeah, usd denom commodities tend to trade opposite to commodith prices. But again i dont trust that relationship cause i've seen everything with regards to intermarket correlations.
Alright, my bad then.
Everyone have their own strategies. I CAN use stops too i just have a better idea
https://www.reuters.com/markets/cur...-market-past-month-mof-data-shows-2023-10-31/
so reuters came out with an article saying apparently Japan "did not" intervene in FX over the past month
which is crazy given the moves, with all that sudden hammering
it sure raises a few qns,
- how it's possible for moves of such magnitude eg. straight flushing of all the bids to occur in such a large market as dollar yen if it's not a central bank with unlimited deep pockets? esp as it doesn't seem to make much sense profit wise, as surely it'd be easier to just trade with the trend as opposed to fighting the market, which has been swiftly rebounding?
- unless it's a cartel doing reverse psychology where they let everyone think it's BoJ, but really they're trying to get the market to where it best suits them - eg. like the South African rand smashing reported in the news, where they 'needed' the option to trade through a certain price so they jammed a few hundred mils through on Boxing day? but this is dollar yen so would need so much more to move it that much, vs. a few cents when they did it on the rand
= eg. the previous 'cartels' (confirmed with arrests/ text messages, billion dollar fines) have included those for Libor, precious metals, oil, etc etc to name a few lol
- or maybe it's a "shadow" desk where they wouldn't have to report it officially, but are still affiliated with the central bank, eg. kind of like PPT's ramping of S&P, where everyone knows it's them coming in, but their work/ precise tactics are off the records somehow
regardless, it sure seems like someone with deep pockets has a vested interest in controlling dollar yen
if it's not actually BoJ or their affiliate though, it kind of changes the dynamic a little as that would mean they don't *actually* have unlimited money, and in that case if dollar yen gets above a certain limit, perhaps it might move even more sharply on the bullish side as the group is forced to cut losses etc. unless the BoJ then steps in at that point like last year
so reuters came out with an article saying apparently Japan "did not" intervene in FX over the past month
which is crazy given the moves, with all that sudden hammering
it sure raises a few qns,
- how it's possible for moves of such magnitude eg. straight flushing of all the bids to occur in such a large market as dollar yen if it's not a central bank with unlimited deep pockets? esp as it doesn't seem to make much sense profit wise, as surely it'd be easier to just trade with the trend as opposed to fighting the market, which has been swiftly rebounding?
- unless it's a cartel doing reverse psychology where they let everyone think it's BoJ, but really they're trying to get the market to where it best suits them - eg. like the South African rand smashing reported in the news, where they 'needed' the option to trade through a certain price so they jammed a few hundred mils through on Boxing day? but this is dollar yen so would need so much more to move it that much, vs. a few cents when they did it on the rand
= eg. the previous 'cartels' (confirmed with arrests/ text messages, billion dollar fines) have included those for Libor, precious metals, oil, etc etc to name a few lol
- or maybe it's a "shadow" desk where they wouldn't have to report it officially, but are still affiliated with the central bank, eg. kind of like PPT's ramping of S&P, where everyone knows it's them coming in, but their work/ precise tactics are off the records somehow
regardless, it sure seems like someone with deep pockets has a vested interest in controlling dollar yen
if it's not actually BoJ or their affiliate though, it kind of changes the dynamic a little as that would mean they don't *actually* have unlimited money, and in that case if dollar yen gets above a certain limit, perhaps it might move even more sharply on the bullish side as the group is forced to cut losses etc. unless the BoJ then steps in at that point like last year
USDJPY is too liquid and too large for being controlled by anyone. Impossible. There would be by far too big losses in many billions US Dollars for everyone. I thought first it was a typing error and someone missed the value of JPY to USD, like a fat finger approach. But when it appears to be more often the case, also not possible. There must be some root to the central bank or I do not get it. Anyone knows more .... ?
I trade price (futs), not rumors.
Now we're getting somewhere
CB's intention with this intervention rhetoric is NOT to get the price down. And could they? Usdjpy is a proxy for US bonds and has a dollar component. And suddenly BOJ is so powerful to override all markets? Come on.
If the UJ comes down, it will do so because of bonds and usd. Just like the last time. The hell it was just BOJ's intervention last year. It was coordinated with FED at least. Came in at the most convenient time when SP500 was tanking like a madman to 3500. So be aware of stocks. They're down too but there's more room to go before this type of intervention becomes plausible again. And noise can happen anytime, a 300pt spike down out of nowhere.
Didnt really answer my question but ok.
Im pretty sure none of you are actually long here. With real money, anyway.
I could show my hand. Would it really matter? I haven't seen yours yet.
Anyway I almost exclusively trade intra day. So I'm flat ATM.
But when the trend is a strong as it is, and has been since July, I try not to out-think things.
Here's 5 minute CME Yen (which of course trades inversely to FX):-