The Future Of America

[GermanTrader]

Quote from dagobaz:

This is just cyclical behavior. all societies oscillate between two extremes: strong central authority / weak nobles; weak central authority / strong nobles.

dagobaz, you are correct. Some of us have been around to see more than one cycle through this economy. Regardless of the enemy with nukes, regardless of the value of the dollar, regardless of the political bent, we are merely in a cyclincal move down, bound to be corrected in time. If you are a professional trader, you should be making money in good times or bad.

To the doubters and/or panicked traders, I quote the bumper sticker: "Sit down, hang on and shut up."

 

[piezoe]

Quote from Gringinho:

The problem is not really the people - it's the trust-model that you attribute to trusting the judgement of ordinary people or strangers.

If you have seen some of my posts about e-democracy and the transition from today's open democracy into an e-democracy using representative direct democracy - you would see that it is possible to move the trust of people honouring, caring for and executing the democratic model that we all agree on can easily be transferred to a technological platform open for audit, verification, transparency and traceability so that you can easily trust the execution of the model.

So, it's essentially the trust-model for society that needs attention - not really that people need to become improved versions of themselves.


As the deficiencies of any type of society/rule etc. develops - society is challenged because it is dynamic, and people adapt to whatever rule there is. In case of open democracy - we have increasingly more politicians, increasing government, more bureaucracy, more judicial processes, increasingly complicated legislation to counter the flaws, more punitive reaction and ultimately less freedom with an over-complicated society. Then a change comes after the patience and trust is eroded away. One can call this evolution in waves or cyclical trends - but it happens and has done so throughout history of humankind.

Interesting comments. Thank you.

 

[drsteph]

Quote from gnome:

And they will again.. BY RAISING TAXES... any dumbf*ck can do that.

One day, THEY WILL "TAKE IT ALL"... And no matter how hard you work, no matter what you accomplish... you will NEVER HAVE ANYTHING...then for what will you cheer?

But gnome,

What difference is it between a stated tax like what the democrats will enact and an implied tax through perpetual currency debasement and competitive devaluations?

I mean, if top tax rate is 35% and we are debasing 12% a year, then tax rate is actually 47%.

If you raise the tax rate to 47% and stop debasing the currency, what's the difference? Apart how it applies across the spectrum?

To my simple mind, no real difference. In practicality there is a difference because of the progressive income tax. But really, otherwise no real difference.

Biggest mistake the FED made in this last round of manipulation was not allowing wages to rise. That killed the deal and is causing a near term deflation. Which, by the way, favors those whos ill gotten gains have been made already (if they can avoid the forfeiture from bank closures!)

 

[achilles28]

Quote from gnome:

I believe the "future of America" is one of ever higher inflation, and continued stagflation... UNTIL THE BOOMER GENERATION DIES OFF!!!

If/when there is "recovery", it will be from a much lower level of all things economic and AFTER we Boomers are gone.

Yes, that's right..... 30-40 years of economic malaise, at best.... plan for it.

I hope I'm wrong...

Agree 100%.

The only way Social Security and Medicaid can meet their 60 Trillion in unfunded liabilities is to turn on the printing press.

Dollar is friggen toast, long term.

American voters are beyond reason. They're over-taxed, stupid and broke. Now they expect Uncle Sam to pay their medical bills into dementia.

Nothing wrong with it. The Government promised it, after all. We take x% every year, you get an old age pension.

Well, guess what? That pension money is gone. Money for Mediaid, doesn't exist.

The Government fucked us. Big time.

Now they'll turn to the FED, print literally tens of trillions over the span of a few decades, and blow out every last vestige of private wealth this country had.

There's no way in hell the Global Economy can right itself from that kind of shock.

This won't be some liquidity trap where insolvent banks recapitalize their underwater balance sheets.

This will be raw, money injected straight into the System - hospitals, drug makers, staff. etc.

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Quote from achilles28:

Agree 100%.

The only way Social Security and Medicaid can meet their 60 Trillion in unfunded liabilities is to turn on the printing press.

Dollar is friggen toast, long term.

American voters are beyond reason. They're over-taxed, stupid and broke. Now they expect Uncle Sam to pay their medical bills into dementia.

Nothing wrong with it. The Government promised it, after all. We take x% every year, you get an old age pension.

Well, guess what? That pension money is gone. Money for Mediaid, doesn't exist.

The Government fucked us. Big time.

Now they'll turn to the FED, print literally tens of trillions over the span of a few decades, and blow out every last vestige of private wealth this country had.

There's no way in hell the Global Economy can right itself from that kind of shock.

This won't be some liquidity trap where insolvent banks recapitalize their underwater balance sheets.

This will be raw, money injected straight into the System - hospitals, drug makers, staff. etc.

I agree, but your last statement isn't clear. Do you mean to say "da Fed" is gonna give money to hospitals and drug makers??...
Please elaborate. thanks

 

[achilles28]

Quote from IanMacQuaide:

I agree, but your last statement isn't clear. Do you mean to say "da Fed" is gonna give money to hospitals and drug makers??...
Please elaborate. thanks

Pretty much.

The Government is charged with financing 60 Trillion in unfunded bills.

The Government has no way in hell of getting this money. The Government would have to institute something like an 80% flat tax to get this money.

What will happen = Government issues 60 Trillion in T-Bills over the course of 2 or 3 decades.

No one buys them. Its below junk bond status. Its crap. Toilet paper.

The net effect of infusing 60 Trillion in 20 years is 3 Trillion a year - or ~20% YOY inflation. Not too mention all the speculative bubbles, crashes, hoarding and shortages that will result by association.

So they turn to the FED.

FED buys those T-Bills by conjuring electronic money from thin air, gets transferred to Government coffers, who in turn give it to Social Security and Medicaid Departments or whatever Comptroller stewards those programs, then the money goes out to pay real bills for goods and services supplied by the private sector.

Inflation will be out-of-control. Literally.

We think "wage-price-spiral" inflation is dead. One only needs to look to Zimbabwe to see its alive and well.

We haven't seen it in America because the liquidity trap has kept money out of the System. Banks are recapitalizing from the spread.

In this scenerio, there is no bank.

Even if the credit crisis is still around in 10 years time, it won't matter.

Because all that Government money to pay for drugs, surgeries, plastic hips and nurses goes directly INTO the private sector.

There is no banking "firewall" to block that money from getting into the common System.

What that means is inflation WILL be out of control. We WILL see wage-price spiral, and I'd be surprised if the US didn't undergo some major political revolt along with economic catastrophe.

Think about it. The dollar will be toast. China, Taiwan, every oil producing State will decouple.

Prices will go through the roof. Wages never keep up to Real Inflation.

We're about to see Real American Income go down the Toilet. Thousands of dollars, every year, erased from our GDP per capita. Guaranteed.

There's a reason every Central Bank was Chartered on "Hawkish" inflationary policy. Once it gets out of control, we go back to Volker. 25% interest rates.

Or kiss the Economy good-bye.

Can you imagine? 20% interest rates just to keep the economy from blowing apart while the Government pumps in Trillions to pay medical bills??

Think 1970's Inflation meets 1930's recession.

It will be chaotic. Crime. People starving. Cities of roaming unemployed. Shanty towns.

Who knows what will happen to the CDO market. Pfft. That'll be some other foreigners problem by then.

 

[ammo]

Quote from LEAPup:

I'm a Libertarian, and thus do not want big government as it doesn't work. NOR is it what our founding Fathers meant it to be.

This used to be a free Country, but is no more. I love America, and am saddened by what it has come to vs. what I knew it as when I was a kid.

With an Obama in the White House, I can't imagine how many decades it will take to "un do" what he will do.

These are scary times, no question.

i'm not for or against obama,but any one that can undo some of the deals being made like the one that got us in this credit crunch and used our good credit name to fleece foriegn investors,i'll vot e him in,we saw in 04 with bush and the chads that big business will not allow it,there is too much profit to be lost,hell, it's probably too late anyway,unless we are forgiven our debt as we have forgiven those who have borrowed from us

 

[libertad]

Future of America....


Much better with Palin (capitalist).......

The move away from socialism (Obama) is a good thing......

The move towards blatant honesty, actual participation, coming from being "For Real" is fresh and important change.....

With Palin.....if she likes a pure consumption tax......she will get it done.....

The rest of the pack .....ARE BULLSHITTER POLITICIANS.....

 

[gnome]

Quote from drsteph:

But gnome,

What difference is it between a stated tax like what the democrats will enact and an implied tax through perpetual currency debasement and competitive devaluations?

I mean, if top tax rate is 35% and we are debasing 12% a year, then tax rate is actually 47%.

If you raise the tax rate to 47% and stop debasing the currency, what's the difference? Apart how it applies across the spectrum?

To my simple mind, no real difference. In practicality there is a difference because of the progressive income tax. But really, otherwise no real difference.

Biggest mistake the FED made in this last round of manipulation was not allowing wages to rise. That killed the deal and is causing a near term deflation. Which, by the way, favors those whos ill gotten gains have been made already (if they can avoid the forfeiture from bank closures!)

While it's true, "All roads lead to Rome"... that is whether it's through confiscation of weath by taxes or confiscaton by inflation and currency debasement, ultimately the Gummint will consume all of the wealth of the private sector.... much in the same way as did the former Soviet Union.

However by raising taxes, it's "in your face" obvious.... and many of us would complain loudly. By doing it through deficits and print-money, we sheelpe don't make much of a fuss.... because the result isn't so immediate nor blatantly obvious.

We must not lose sight of the fact that "all debt gets accounted for by somebody"...

And the US Gummint has wrung up about $10Trillion so far (about $5T on Bush's watch alone... unconscionable!) .. with more to come.

Unless there is a major change in how business is done at the Federal level, America is TOAST financially... and we'd all better plan for it.

 

[Hydroblunt]

Quote from libertad:

Future of America....


Much better with Palin (capitalist).......

The move away from socialism (Obama) is a good thing......

The move towards blatant honesty, actual participation, coming from being "For Real" is fresh and important change.....

With Palin.....if she likes a pure consumption tax......she will get it done.....

The rest of the pack .....ARE BULLSHITTER POLITICIANS.....

Ok, I just have a question.

Why do you feel that Palin is so different from the rest? Just because of her speech?