I suggest you pursue it at least as far as determining the MAEs and MFEs for an hourly bar. I don't suggest opening a journal. At least not here. But you should begin a serious investigation.
The Foresight Thread
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I suggest you pursue it at least as far as determining the MAEs and MFEs for an hourly bar. I don't suggest opening a journal. At least not here. But you should begin a serious investigation.
Speaking of this, it just so happens that 4378 is pretty much the median of the weekly channel. So why not?
hmm...off 8 points on a 80 point drop, not too shabby. I will investigate the hourly bars and see what I can learn. Thanks for all you do, DB !.
Not at all. Pokito is clearly a man to be reckoned with. No one else saw this, including me, until you brought it up. But then it's not usual to move from the upper limit to the median so quickly.
I keep forgetting, though, that nobody trades this intraday, except maybe Schaefer, and he's smart enough not to post anything. I'd love to see somebody trade the hourly bar.
(I wonder if that counts as a "real-time" call; probably not; too far in advance
)LOL... I love this. So you say its smart that nobody posts anything, and yet you want to see someone post. Nice!
And... more importantly... you'd love to see someone "trade" the hourly bar? I'd love to see someone trade... period. What is your definition of seeing someone trade? To show up once a week and post a trade? To post a chart showing where the trades could have gone? To show an entire day's worth of trades, complete with all the scratches? Can we get a whole week of this? Or do we get a 1 min chart when its suits SLA that day... and an hourly chart when its clearly obvious that you'd be better off holding a position from days ago?
I thought you yourself trade the hourly bar since you've said many times you don't day trade. So wouldn't YOUR trading be the perfect example of trading the hourly bar?
Here is me trading the hourly bar since you wanted to see.
As you can see... I added to one position on each RET. I do have one scratch... closed out for a minor loss of course. Hey... gotta be scared not to lose, right? Ahhhh.... the benefits of hindsight trading and knowing where each swing point lands.(Hope you don't mind me having fun with you Db. Since you say I'm on ignore... you won't even see this perhaps. Funny though how you were able to see that great post from wrbtrader in my journal so you could use it.....)
A word of warning.
Climactic action does not necessarily mean imminent reversal. After one has studied price movement for a while, he sees that what may be viewed as climactic action or even a climax in real time may be only what is called "preliminary support". This is created by big money traders who enter the market at what they consider to be attractive prices but which are not necessarily bottom prices. Their anticipatory buying does not mean that they are wrong; it means only that they don't care: they have a different time horizon. And it is, after all, this buying that retards, eventually halts, and results in the eventual reversal, or at least the beginning of the bottoming process.
The SLA can be particularly useful here because it does not require guessing. No, one may not necessarily buy the bottom tick. But so what? There are also issues of safety that must be considered by the trader who wants to become financially independent. Professionals (those who support themselves with this) after all do not care about the top tick and the bottom tick; they are more than content with the substantial middle.
Using the past few days as an example, it is obvious even to anyone who's never seen a chart that the stride has changed trajectory:
Does this mean that we've reached the "bottom" (in this case, the median of the weekly trend channel, which is currently at or about 4350)? Maybe. Maybe not (traders sometimes reverse price in advance of reaching the median; sometimes they overshoot; that's the way an auction market works).
The ES showed the same climactic action a few days ago but then rallied 20+pts, the equivalence of 50pts in the NQ, which is a rally worth participating in:
.
Therefore, if you're in, try to stay in, if your rules permit you to do so. If you're out, wait for the market to show its hand. Judge the market by its own action.
And be patient.
Climactic action does not necessarily mean imminent reversal. After one has studied price movement for a while, he sees that what may be viewed as climactic action or even a climax in real time may be only what is called "preliminary support". This is created by big money traders who enter the market at what they consider to be attractive prices but which are not necessarily bottom prices. Their anticipatory buying does not mean that they are wrong; it means only that they don't care: they have a different time horizon. And it is, after all, this buying that retards, eventually halts, and results in the eventual reversal, or at least the beginning of the bottoming process.
The SLA can be particularly useful here because it does not require guessing. No, one may not necessarily buy the bottom tick. But so what? There are also issues of safety that must be considered by the trader who wants to become financially independent. Professionals (those who support themselves with this) after all do not care about the top tick and the bottom tick; they are more than content with the substantial middle.
Using the past few days as an example, it is obvious even to anyone who's never seen a chart that the stride has changed trajectory:
Does this mean that we've reached the "bottom" (in this case, the median of the weekly trend channel, which is currently at or about 4350)? Maybe. Maybe not (traders sometimes reverse price in advance of reaching the median; sometimes they overshoot; that's the way an auction market works).
The ES showed the same climactic action a few days ago but then rallied 20+pts, the equivalence of 50pts in the NQ, which is a rally worth participating in:
Therefore, if you're in, try to stay in, if your rules permit you to do so. If you're out, wait for the market to show its hand. Judge the market by its own action.
And be patient.
A man can't spend years at one thing and not acquire a habitual attitude towards it quite unlike that of the average beginner. The difference distinguishes the professional from the amateur. It is the way a man looks at things that makes or loses money for him in the speculative markets. The public has the dilettante's point of view toward his own effort. The ego obtrudes itself unduly and the thinking therefore is not deep or exhaustive. The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to. A trader gets to play the game as the professional billiard player does -- that is, he looks far ahead instead of considering the particular shot before him. It gets to be an instinct to play for position.
--Jesse Livermore
--Jesse Livermore
Since the above chart was of interest to a few people, the following may also be of interest. These are the sorts of "notes" I make to myself when getting ready to trade. A range is always nice as trading it is so simple. But traders don't always provide a pre-market range. Instead one must apply the SLA.
and, later
and, later