The first step [for the pros only]

[babutime]

Quote from sonoma:

Ahh, then no. I don't neutralize gamma, or any other greek for that matter, based on my impression of whether the market will turn. I adjust those based on the degree of risk imposed by a move in the market adverse to my position. Sometimes I lean intentionally, but more often my positions simply migrate with time and trades. Maybe others are more discretionary with regards to predicted direction, but I've not looked at trading in that fashion.

Gotcha!

This is what's fun about options (and scary)- so many variables each with their own non-linear effects.

Thanks for clarifying!

 

[babutime]

Quote from ForexForex:

Without "glancing in the rear view mirror" why do you say "the market is long overdue for a correction" ? That's a very tough question to answer.

Note that he said it's not necessarily imminent. Apple could keep going up forever. At the end of the day fundamentals will catch up to a stock's performance, which in the case of Apple, fortunately is still pretty priced well (PE is around 11 I believe- which is normal).

What's important, and this is the take-away from arguments against TA if I'm not far from the mark, is not to confirm one's assumptions and forward looking views with flawed "indicators". The more exotic they are named, the more dangerous they become and cognitive biases kick in.

 

[spindr0]

Quote from ForexForex:

Without "glancing in the rear view mirror" why do you say "the market is long overdue for a correction" ? That's a very tough question to answer.

Could you DEFINE what you mean by CORRECTION?

 

[spindr0]

Quote from babutime:

What's important, and this is the take-away from arguments against TA if I'm not far from the mark, is not to confirm one's assumptions and forward looking views with flawed "indicators". The more exotic they are named, the more dangerous they become and cognitive biases kick in.

Charts are useful for determining support & resistance and trends. Indicators will confirm that but they have no predictive value. As some say, studying patterns is as reliable as looking for images in the clouds

 

[ForexForex]

Quote from spindr0:
The market is long overdue for a correction but that in no way means one is imminent. Could be sooner, could be later.

MACD is as useful today as it was then. All of these indicators are glances in the rear view mirror telling you where you've been and your position in relation to your look back. None predict anything.

Quote from ForexForex:
Without "glancing in the rear view mirror" why do you say "the market is long overdue for a correction" ? That's a very tough question to answer.

Quote from spindr0:
Could you DEFINE what you mean by CORRECTION?

"Correction" is the term you used. Like I posted my question is tough to answer.

 

[babutime]

Quote from spindr0:

Charts are useful for determining support & resistance and trends. Indicators will confirm that but they have no predictive value. As some say, studying patterns is as reliable as looking for images in the clouds

Question on Support and resistance. I could write a small script that generates pseudorandom numbers and create a geometric random walk from it, scale it to a random stock price- complete with candlestick charts and show plenty of Support and Resistance.

How is Support and Resistance better than other technical indicators?

 

[spindr0]

Quote from babutime:

How is Support and Resistance better than other technical indicators?

S&R reflects the price domain. Canned indicators are derivatives and often misrepresent what is happening in the price domain (eg. stochastics, MACD, etc.).

 

[babutime]

Since we've deviated from the main topic- how the professionals/ succesful traders here start their hunt for profitable opportunities, anyone else wanna add in their 2 cents?

 

[sonoma]

Quote from babutime:

Since we've deviated from the main topic- how the professionals/ succesful traders here start their hunt for profitable opportunities, anyone else wanna add in their 2 cents?

If you're going to trade options, then I'd concentrate on just a few underlyings but make sure there is plenty of volume, both in the underlying and the options. The names don't matter, because this is not buy-and-hold, it's trading. You could trade pencils if they were liquid, widely-traded, and had minimal friction. A little higher vol is good. Not crazy high, but you have to have some movement. You want to minimize your transaction friction because this is a game of nickels and dimes.

 

[babutime]

Quote from sonoma:

If you're going to trade options, then I'd concentrate on just a few underlyings but make sure there is plenty of volume, both in the underlying and the options.

I've had quite a few people mention that already. Sounds extremely sensible to focus on a basket of underlying that are highly liquid and do some work on them. I get the feeling that it would remove the need for "scanners" of any sort for the time being.

Noted!