Maybe on timing but on the over all credit cycle and monetary policy I have found of all the readings Von Mises to be the most accurate....his description of inflation and the crack up boom makes it very clear
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The Fed and Inflation
- Thread starter Spaghetti Code
- Start date
Looking at the Balance sheet graph, there was a reduction from June 1st to about July 22. The market pulled back at first, but ended up rallying over this period. I don't think it follows that no one would be willing to slow down.
They knew a meaningful reduction could not occur. Just trying to keep appearances that the Fed had options. When enough people realize this is now a one way street they would no longer even pretend and just go all out and hit some type of reset. A complete farce that ends badly for everyone who doesn’t own assets. Hence, the asset inflation everywhere you look.
How much longer do you think until it collapses anyway?
Anyone who gives you an answer is lying to you. Could be next month or a couple of decades. Who knows. Just buy all the risk you can afford to stomach for the next few decades and ride the train. When the whole world wakes up to this reality it would be too late. A lot of people out there holding out for some type of value in prices which will never come in relative terms.
That's the right attitude...I always have been a doomsdayer and it interferes with my ability to earn...so I curbed it a bit.....Anyone who gives you an answer is lying to you. Could be next month or a couple of decades. Who knows. Just buy all the risk you can afford to stomach for the next few decades and ride the train. When the whole world wakes up to this reality it would be too late. A lot of people out there holding out for some type of value in prices which will never come in relative terms.
I stand corrected. Apparently one person nails macro Econ. Good to know someone thinks someone gets it right all the time.Maybe on timing but on the over all credit cycle and monetary policy I have found of all the readings Von Mises to be the most accurate....his description of inflation and the crack up boom makes it very clear
me? I stopped listening to predictions long ago. Now I look at price. Fundamentals are a great way to lose a fortune. Economists make terrible traders.
no doubt there are economic reasons for rates going up, commodities going up, the stock market going up, etc. I have my own pet theories. In 2 years we will know what the official explication for it all is. Everything is always after the fact. I know, I know, your guy isn’t. I don’t drink that kool aid. Nor is it necessary. Just follow the money flow. No different than high frequency traders. It’s simple front running on a longer time scale where the large players can’t hide their actions. Long tails on higher lows with volume means one thing. And it’s not distribution.
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The market, once it becomes driven mainly by perception and emotion changes reality. The main reason the market goes up is because it is going up. That creates a "wealth effect". Everything that relates to equity valuation is re-evaluated higher, changing reality to correspond with the market. Of course this can go on only so long as there are net buyers, which can be for a long time. [see "Soros reflexivity."]
Regarding von Mises, he was wrong in his time*. He is still wrong in his grave. The disagreement between the Austrian school and Keynes new Macroeconomics was settled a long time ago and thoroughly put to rest during the 1930's.
There can be no question that we are seeing well more than 2% inflation in some sectors of the economy. We shouldn't forget that the fed's money machine can be cranked backwards as well as forwards. Once the pandemic is under control and everyone is back to work expect a couple counterclockwise turns to be applied to the money machine crank.
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*wrong in his economics, but not necessarily wrong in other respects.
Regarding von Mises, he was wrong in his time*. He is still wrong in his grave. The disagreement between the Austrian school and Keynes new Macroeconomics was settled a long time ago and thoroughly put to rest during the 1930's.
There can be no question that we are seeing well more than 2% inflation in some sectors of the economy. We shouldn't forget that the fed's money machine can be cranked backwards as well as forwards. Once the pandemic is under control and everyone is back to work expect a couple counterclockwise turns to be applied to the money machine crank.
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*wrong in his economics, but not necessarily wrong in other respects.
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The fact that you say that the Keynesian School of economics disproves anything much less something about classical liberal economics and the Austrian School says everything to me about the remaining statements that you make.. deflation is the enemy of the State and the Fed they will not allow it to happen.. they're not going to crank back the money machine until inflation pops its head up and when it does it will likely happen very rapidly.. I am hoping for a soft landing I don't want to live through a depression. Keynesian economics basically justifies all kinds of interventionism. Austrian economics explains what happens from all those interventions and suggests a freer market with less government intervention it's as simple as thatThe market, once it becomes driven mainly by perception and emotion changes reality. The main reason the market goes up is because it is going up. That creates a "wealth effect". Everything that relates to equity valuation is re-evaluated higher, changing realty to correspond with the market. Of course this can go on only as long as there are net buyers, which can be for a long time. [see "Soros reflexivity."]
Regarding von Mises, he was wrong in his time. He is still wrong in his grave. The disagreement between the Austrian school and Keynes new Macroeconomics was settled a long time ago and thoroughly put to rest during the 1930's.
There can be no question that we are seeing well more than 2% inflation in some sectors of the economy. We shouldn't forget that the fed's money machine can be cranked backwards as well as forwards. Once the pandemic is under control and everyone is back to work expect a couple counterclockwise turns to be applied to the money machine crank.