The fear of trading edge becoming inefficient?

[pneuma]

Quote from OddTrader:

Assuming that is the highest form/ level of edge and you have attained that, are you saying you would never have had any fear of losing the edge anymore after proving that works (and how long for the fear lasting after proving it works?)?

Oddy,

edge efficiency comes and goes. Those that work well in a bull market don't work now. It's not that they are useless, but more that they don't reflect the current market. You need more than one way to screw the goose, because different market require different edges. If you are usually long only, of course you are loosing cash hand over fist at the moment - try short selling.

You approach needs to be fluid and reflect the changes in market tide. In simple terms, be come a tradesman with many tools to get the job done. If you only have a hammer, you are never going to be able to cut a piece of wood.

To loose the fear, be prepared and have the tools required.

pneuma

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from pneuma:

Oddy,

edge efficiency comes and goes. Those that work well in a bull market don't work now. It's not that they are useless, but more that they don't reflect the current market. You need more than one way to screw the goose, because different market require different edges. If you are usually long only, of course you are loosing cash hand over fist at the moment - try short selling.

You approach needs to be fluid and reflect the changes in market tide. In simple terms, be come a tradesman with many tools to get the job done. If you only have a hammer, you are never going to be able to cut a piece of wood.

To loose the fear, be prepared and have the tools required.

pneuma

A system with a Real Edge should be able to trade in all market conditions.

Otherwise we shouldn't even call it an edge.

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

bing-mutherfuxxing-go!!!!!!!

Finally the right answer.


QUOTE]Quote from OddTrader:

A system with a Real Edge should be able to trade in all market conditions.

Otherwise we shouldn't even call it an edge. [/QUOTE]

 

[sunggong]

Quote from OddTrader:

Assuming that is the highest form/ level of edge and you have attained that, are you saying you would never have had any fear of losing the edge anymore after proving that works (and how long for the fear lasting after proving it works?)?

Of course I would never say never.

Markets change slowly over time. New algorithms will surely arrive. More computerization of intraday trading will continue and so on.

However, the fundamental bullish/bearish behaviors do not really change, and as long as your edge, at its most core level, takes advantage of these behaviors, you should be able to adapt.

Also why fear? If things are changing, and you have to tweak your systems, most likely others are experiencing the same. That means more opportunities to take $$$ away from those who can't adapt.

 

[sakimonohito]

Quote from OddTrader:

Do you mean diversification with several edges?

How do you know in advance all the edges could never be high correlated one day, hence becoming inefficient at the same time?

I think the biggest and best traders of all time have always taken advantage of an edge which wasn't derived from their own judgement, and quite a few that were.

I recall marty schwartz traded art in addition to futures markets.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from sunggong:

Also why fear? If things are changing, and you have to tweak your systems, most likely others are experiencing the same. That means more opportunities to take $$$ away from those who can't adapt.

Good thinking again.

Perhaps my fear has been worrying others to take $$$ away from me who has been never sure his highly adaptable system will be still adaptable enough one day in the future! LOL.

Quote from sakimonohito:

I think the biggest and best traders of all time have always taken advantage of an edge which wasn't derived from their own judgement, and quite a few that were.

I recall marty schwartz traded art in addition to futures markets.

I agree that diversification is the key, always!

 

[4DTrader]

Quote from OddTrader:

Have you ever had any experience (at any moment at all?) of the fear for worrying your trading edge would become inefficient in the near future?

What would you do to prepare for it?

How to overcome it, technically (such as starting a hedge fund) and/or psychologically?

Or do you think a true edge would never lose its efficiency forever?

The true edge never loses its effectiveness, due to the nature of the market.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from 4DTrader:

The true edge never loses its effectiveness, due to the nature of the market.

That would be very nice! However, how do I know I finally got a True edge before I really have one (or proving otherwise)!?

Or perhaps: No fear, No gain!

 

[cold]

Quote from OddTrader:

That would be very nice! However, how do I know I finally got a True edge before I really have one (or proving otherwise)!?

Or perhaps: No fear, No gain!

I am getting a bit impatient, so I will give you one edge

now pay attention because this is a real one

leave ET, chart and chart, erase ET from your bookmark

you saw you read, you posted etc

NOW ITS TIME FOR QUIET WORK

good luck and as I said, you need to understand your edge

if you don't get it, is it really an edge

just leave ET man

 

[Dr. Zhivodka]

You never know. The thing you do is keep testing and trading. All the time moving forward.

Anyone with a real methodology and half a brain is not going say a word about it or it's psychology

Quote from OddTrader:

That would be very nice! However, how do I know I finally got a True edge before I really have one!?

Or perhaps: No fear, No gain!