The fear of trading edge becoming inefficient?

Quote from OddTrader:

Have you ever had any experience (at any moment at all?) of the fear for worrying your trading edge would become inefficient in the near future?

What would you do to prepare for it?

How to overcome it, technically (such as starting a hedge fund) and/or psychologically?

Or do you think a true edge would never lose its efficiency forever?
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Quite sure and certain that a technical solution would be operating a fund on top of your daily trading activities that would be a possible way to reduce fear of (perhaps gradually) losing efficiency (i.e. not earning as much as before due to whatever causes).

"Strategy Focus: Managed Forex Accounts (October 15, 2007) http://www.attaincapital.com/newsletters/247

The problems we have had in the past finding good Forex managers has mainly stemmed from two causes. One, Managed Forex program and their managers/advisors are not required to be registered with any regulatory body."

An effective alternative to maintain my edges is to design/ teach heavily a technical trading method (like the JH one) and then promote/ preach it to the public when you know for sure that your own trading method (with the old and outdated edges) can be front-running against all your followers before they getting in or out.
 
Suuuure he did...you keep telling yourself that :p

Quote from bobloblaw:

Mr Hershey himself has offered his excuses for that contest on this site Cocaine
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Quote from stock777:

Post your edges here, I'm starting a collection

1)___________________________

2)___________________________

3)___________________________


If you have more than 3 edges, post the best ones.
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if all u ladies are done hissing at jh,back to the edge tread, 1. TRENDLINES been around since the horizon,2 GE, has been the great est dow movement indicator since preforever, 3. FEEL if you study the market long enough you will learn by osmossis whether its going up or down
 
Quote from allenhobbs:

Translation: I like the way I write and could care less if anyone else does even if I'm the only one who understands what I'm saying. It makes me feel superior to those of you who don't have my intellectual prowess even if I'm not making sense. After all, I'm an expert who's has amassed a fortune trading and that requires you to bow down to my wisdom I impart on you and the other drones here at ET.

If I had found this link first, I could have saved a few minutes posting on this thread.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jack-hersheys-incomprehensible-method-971.html

Eloquently and concisely told in the spirit of truth by the blogger.

:D
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Babak, coincidently was the first person I put on ignore. A some point I was banned as jack hershey and after a few iterations I was given my name back and a password. In doing this, it turns out that I cannot reinstate Babak from the ignore status since, when reinstated as described, it did not include the one name on ignore. LOL.

While there are only 24 responses to his blog statement where he wrote about how and when he thinks of me, he apparently does. I like that I made an impression. It was a good idea for you to do the search to find out why you view me as you do.

I redid the post that was not understandable. I added a few illustrations as well. It turned out to be a 12 page illustrated comment.

For me, it is demanding to address the essential issues a potential trader faces. It has taken me years to come to an understanding of the process a normal person might go through to come out an expert. What happens as time passes and I trade year after year is that I can no longer go back easily to the places where learning traders are today. There is also the advent of technology that is now available. Technology often prevents any given person from being able to see and understand what is going on. On the otherhand, it is relatively easy for a person who knows and understands markets thoroughly to add the power of technology to his toolbox.

So I am having a ball as I roll along.

NB The blog's major rspondent commentor who was dissing me is none other than the guy who is here and in this thread exhausting his cut and paste toy box.
 
Edges? There are no edges. Only eigenvectors and eigenvalues. Any fucking idiot algorithmicist can detect a price reversal. The first skill, and the first trick, is to determine its persistence. Attached is an example of a system of systems which piles on the probability that the turn will persist. I could fill the fucking screen with such subsystems (I have tens of them), but the more you add the less frequently you trade. So the second skill, and the second trick, is to know yourself so well that you know precisely how low an R/R you can stomach without getting the shits. The only value of ET is to know with absolute certainty how fucking stupid the people you are trading against are. And the stupidest of all are those who argue with Jack.
 

Attachments

Quote from Joe Doaks:

Edges? There are no edges. Only eigenvectors and eigenvalues. Any fucking idiot algorithmicist can detect a price reversal. The first skill, and the first trick, is to determine its persistence. Attached is an example of a system of systems which piles on the probability that the turn will persist. I could fill the fucking screen with such subsystems (I have tens of them), but the more you add the less frequently you trade. So the second skill, and the second trick, is to know yourself so well that you know precisely how low an R/R you can stomach without getting the shits. The only value of ET is to know with absolute certainty how fucking stupid the people you are trading against are. And the stupidest of all are those who argue with Jack.
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JD(Hypo), you specified only two edges above. Where is the third one? :D
 
Here's a simple Jack Hershey reality check that I wrote in March of last year. I'd add that Berkshire Hathaway's compounded annual gain since 1965 is ONLY 17.8 percent and, in Warren Buffett's most recent annual letter to shareholders, he said Berkshire Hathaway won't "duplicate or even approach" that in the future. Just something to think about when Hershey offers his kool-aid to wide-eyed wannabees. Too bad Buffett's stuck in the "conventional orthodoxy." Jack, why don't you contact him and offer to take over when he dies? Or was he referring to you when he said the board knows "exactly" whom it would select should he suddenly become "unavailable."

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Jack offers a new "paradigm" which he claims is superior to the "conventional orthodoxy." So let's compare and contrast the two with Jack representing his "paradigm" and Bill Eckhardt representing the "conventional orthodoxy."

1. Methodology
a. Jack Hershey: SCT and PVT
b. Bill Eckhardt: technical trading systems

2. Methodology Disclosure
a. Jack Hershey: 4968 posts on ET as of Mar 20, 2007 (Jack Hershey, Grob109, Bubba7).
b. Bill Eckhardt: No posts on ET; systems are closely guarded proprietary secret

3. Backtesting Philosophy
a. Jack Hershey: "backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out"
b. Bill Eckhardt: "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing"

4. Claims
a. Jack Hershey: "for PVT it turns out that instruments like equities yield 2 1/2 % daily on the coarse level and run up to 15% or so on the highest levels," "it takes low 5 digits to get to 15,000,000 in a year by trading every day," etc., etc.
b. Bill Eckhardt: "profitable trading will only get harder"

5. Reality (Track Record)
a. Jack Hershey: -24% in trading contest (2002)
b. Bill Eckhardt: Manages over $800 million; Eckhardt Trading Company Standard Fund has returned over 10,150% since 1987

6. How They Respond to Requests for Track Record
a. Jack Hershey: misdirection
b. Bill Eckhardt: Audited 20+ year real money track record

7. Profiled In
a. Jack Hershey: ???
b. Bill Eckhardt: Market Wizards, numerous newspapers and magazines, etc.

I could go on but is there any question as to who is the "real deal" and who is not?

Notes:

1. Eckhardt quotes from:
http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=3648

2. Jack Hershey quotes are all from ET under his various aliases


Quote from bobloblaw:

Hey Jack when are you going to start calling live trades? :p

Your track record so far consists of a 26% loss in a trading contest

All the pseudobabble in the world can't hide the fact you seem incapable of making any money
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Quote from OddTrader:

Have you ever had any experience (at any moment at all?) of the fear for worrying your trading edge would become inefficient in the near future?

What would you do to prepare for it?

How to overcome it, technically (such as starting a hedge fund) and/or psychologically?

Or do you think a true edge would never lose its efficiency forever?
More...

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I think part of an edge is being able to adapt to the markets so its very flexible, as someone stated earlier, it may be based on price action therefore theoretically you should be able to change the parameters on the fly as the market changes. To answer your question, I don't think you should fear that your edge won't work in the near future (unless your edge is based on something other than price action) but rather you should be confident you can adapt to all market conditions thereby changing your strategy or finding a new edge. In short, if your edge is not based on price action then possibly, yes, you may have something to fear as you might be too dependent on it. However, if you have an edge based on price action theoretically you should have nothing to fear. Dunno if that makes sense:)

Something i want to share is an article by Van K Tharp titled the Ten Tasks of Top Trading

"Consistent, top traders keep their life in balance and that makes trading fun. In addition, they also seem to realize their overall purpose in life. Predators are helpful to the whole system. They weed out the weak members of their prey and in doing so strengthen the herd. As a result, they serve a very useful purpose. Similarly, strong traders serve as predators for weaker traders and weed them out of the market. As a result, they strengthen the markets by their presence. As long as you keep that perspective in mind, then you can continue to have success. Traders who have a lot of initial success tend to lose that perspective. They suddenly believe they are bigger than the markets. As a result, the market teaches them humility by wiping out most, if not all, of their capital.

Many traders will take a lot of money at some time in their trading lives and then give it back. Why? Because they don’t keep the overall ecology of the system in mind. They use the markets to prove something to themselves that has nothing to do with trading. What happens to them? They ignore their overall purpose. They increase their trading dramatically or, if they are big enough, they try to corner the market (as the Hunts tried to do with silver) and fail miserably. As a result, they lose everything and are forced out of the market."

In short, i think the above passage illustrates how one must welcome change as it is forces you to adapt. Trading is a highly competitive industry and only the best of the best survive. Another way of looking at it is to welcome challenge to make yourself a better trader as you need to be always constantly improving in this industry.

Just my two cents :)
 
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