The Faucet Model

PetaDollar

PetaDollar

Here's a way I think about trading which helps me to "do the right thing" when it counts.

There are two faucets in front of you. One is colored green, the other red. Unlike a normal faucet, either fresh drinking water or sulfuric acid can come out when you turn it on. You never really know which one it will be. However, whatever comes out of the green faucet, the other thing comes out of the red.

The water pressure (or acid pressure) varies. You can open the spigot all the way and it may come gushing out, or it may just drip.

Also, the liquids many times change back and forth while the faucet is open. Sometimes they do so gradually, other times very quickly.

The only thing you can control is the spigot and of course you can choose which faucet to open.
 
A thirsty, untrained beginner approaces the faucets, decides on red or green, puts his whole head under, and opens the spigot all the way.

If water comes out, he is quite happy and makes a note to try this method again tommorow.

If sulfuric acid comes gushing out all over his face, he tends to keep his head right there so he won't miss any of the water once it starts coming out. He might even open the spigot even more, in an effort to use up all the sulfuric acid faster.
 
After a number of severe burns, he tries for a long time to think of ways to get a drink without getting burned. He fears the acid so much that he only opens the spigot a tiny bit, and only for a short time. He no longer gets severe burns, however he gets a lot of little ones, and not much water to compensate for it. You see when the water does come out, he's so fearful of the acid that instead of opening the spigot even more and trying to get a whole lot of water, he shuts it off right away and tries to be happy with the water he's got. Of course, he can't be happy this way-- the small drinks don't make up for the collectively large amount of suffering he has to endure.
 
The successful veteran is a different story. He walks up to the faucets and he doesn't grab for the spigot. He looks around. He notices the thousands of other thirsty people around him next to their faucets. He watches for a while and gets an idea of what's going on. He might have a trusty robot to help him work the faucets or he might just do it himself, that part doesn't matter: what matters is how he operates once he chooses a faucet. He opens the spigot a bit and takes a little taste. If it's good, he opens the spigot some more. If not, he shuts it off, steps back, and looks once again at what's going on. He might try the same faucet again a little later, or maybe switch faucets, it all depends on what's happening around him.

The other thing this guy does is let the water run as long as it will. He knows on rare occaisions he'll be able to fill large tanks full of water and they'll last him through tough times, which he knows will inevitably come. He usually waits until the water has gotten just a little bit (but not too much) acidic to turn off the spigot. But definitely, he's really adept at controlling the spigot. He uses its adjustability to his full advantage.
 
The onlookers, most of them thirsty and acid-scarred, wonder how this guy can be so successful. They think he has a way of knowing which is the right faucet in advance.

The veteran wonders why the onlookers don't see that everyone has to use the same set of faucets. He shakes his head when he sees folks not taking full advantage of the spigot. He wonders why they're always interested in having the faucet open at the exact moment that it changes from acid to water, instead of just switching to the other faucet. He shrugs his shoulders when he sees the same people try and get water out of the same faucet for two weeks, but tolerate the acid instead, just because that faucet gave a lot of water in the recent past. He looks on with amazement when he sees others doing advanced chemical testing on the residual liquids around the faucet, or perhaps analyzing the splatter patterns at the bottom of the sink...

Then he remembers-- "oh yeah. I used to do that crap too."
 
--- A system traders version --- (c) 2004 Axeman

The system traders robot watches the mere mortals drink
acid all day long.

The robot sits there emotionless, infinitely patient.

Acid burned bodies riddle the floor.

One of the last remaining humans is currently getting burned
under the faucet, when suddenly, their is a change.

A fresh drop of water exits the faucet, and falls through space
in slow motion.

Just then.... with microsecond speed, the robot snatches
the human from the faucet, tossing him into the pile of burning
mortal bodies, and catches the first drop of water
before it hits the sink bottom.

He stays and captures the fresh water for his master until the
flow becomes a mere trickle and then stands aside...satisfied.

Then a new hoard of greedy humans rush the faucet to be
showered in acid once again as the robot stands idly by,
waiting, with infinite patience.

:D

peace

axeman
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

Here's a way I think about trading which helps me to "do the right thing" when it counts.

There are two faucets in front of you. ...
More...

is your house plumping in order :)
 
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