The Fake 60% Approval Rating

[bugscoe]

LOL!!

Latest AP Poll Sample Skews to Democrats by 17 Points
May 11, 2011 8:55 A.M.
By Jim Geraghty

Wow! The AP poll has Obama’s approval rating hitting 60 percent! And 53 percent say he deserves to be reelected!

And on the economy, 52 percent approve of the way Obama’s handling it, and only 47 percent disapprove! He’s up 54–46 on approval of how he’s handling health care! On unemployment, 52 percent approval, 47 percent disapproval! 57 percent approval on handling Libya! Even on the deficit, he’s at 47 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval!

It is a poll of adults, which isn’t surprising; as I mentioned yesterday, you don’t have to be a registered or likely voter to have an opinion on the president.

But then you get to the party ID: 46 percent identify as Democrat or leaning Democrat, 29 percent identify as Republican or leaning Republican, 4 percent identify as purely independent leaning towards neither party, and 20 percent answered, “I don’t know.”

For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican.

With a poll sample that has a 17-percentage-point margin in favor of the Democrats, is anyone surprised that these results look like a David Axelrod dream?

(Interestingly, George W. Bush is at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval, even in this sample wildly weighted in favor of the Democrats.)

 

[Ricter]

So what's the argument here, that AP's sample is not representative because it does not have an equal number of those who ID as democrat and those who ID as republican?

 

[Petsamo]

Quote from Ricter:
So what's the argument here, that AP's sample is not representative because it does not have an equal number of those who ID as democrat and those who ID as republican?

Well, the AP is a leftist organization. Based on that fact alone, you can't trust what they say.

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Petsamo:

Well, the AP is a leftist organization. Based on that fact alone, you can't trust what they say.

Yeah, but you're a rightist, so I can't trust your evalutation of the AP. [cuteemoticonthingyhere]

 

[seneca_roman]

Quote from Ricter:

So what's the argument here, that AP's sample is not representative because it does not have an equal number of those who ID as democrat and those who ID as republican?

If I remember my stats courses, assuming the sample was truly random and there is no evidence it wasn't then the results represent the national mood. Also it shows almost twice as many people identify themselves as Democrats, bad news both ways for the GOP.

Seneca

 

[Ricter]

Quote from seneca_roman:

If I remember my stats courses, assuming the sample was truly random and there is no evidence it wasn't then the results represent the national mood. Also it shows almost twice as many people identify themselves as Democrats, bad news both ways for the GOP.

Seneca

Yes, but there is this, on which I think his whole argument rests: "For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican."

The implication is that this latest sample's ratio of democrats and republicans indicates "too rapid" change to plausibly be an accurate reflection of changing ID (if there is in fact any) on the part of the sample's members.

 

[olias]

I don't put much stock into polls anyway. Who does? Let's face it, most people are are uninformed. Sure, they have an opinion about Obama, but they have very few facts or reasons to back that up. People don't understand the economy, or world affairs, or what power Obama does and doesn't have. Honestly, focusing on what 'the polls say' is pretty lame. The fact that 70% of people love Obama or hate Obama really doesn't tell me anything about the job he's doing.

 

[seneca_roman]

Quote from Ricter:

Yes, but there is this, on which I think his whole argument rests: "For contrast, the AP’s immediate preceding poll was 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican; the likely-voter pool in October 2010 was 43 percent Democrat, 48 percent Republican. The poll’s total sample in October 2010 split 43 percent Democrat, 40 percent Republican."

The implication is that this latest sample's ratio of democrats and republicans indicates "too rapid" change to plausibly be an accurate reflection of changing ID (if there is in fact any) on the part of the sample's members.

I agree; so, I think it is wait and see how the trend goes.

Seneca

 

[377OHMS]

Quote from bugscoe:

The AP poll has Obama’s approval rating hitting 60 percent! And 53 percent say he deserves to be reelected!

These days "journalist" means someone who shovels shit high and deep.

The AP has no compunction about skewing the poll 17-points to the left. The last person in that organization with a conscience left the building over a decade ago.

The mainstream media is leftist and out of the closet for all to see. Time will tell if bias is a sound business model.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from seneca_roman:

If I remember my stats courses, assuming the sample was truly random and there is no evidence it wasn't then the results represent the national mood. Also it shows almost twice as many people identify themselves as Democrats, bad news both ways for the GOP.

Seneca

you've shown yourself as quite intelligent in many threads - therefore i'm rather shocked you came to this conclusion.