The FairPut Initiative

[thecoder]

Ok so one more time from the end user point of view
If current method put assuming ES is @3000 a 3000 strike , 1 day left for expiry ATM PUT costs 10 points
-what would your Fair PUT cost?
- and would there be a difference in Delta?
as a end user that is all I want to know rest is futile

Like I wrote to you in the old thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...w-to-profit-of-it.348911/page-19#post-5185712 :

In the FairPut option pricing model, the PUT payoff at expiration is the same for the CALL for the inverse of the spot (ie. of the mirror image above or below the strike). But this is not a simple calculation like spot - strike or strike - spot, but has to be calculated correctly via the so called "z value" of the lognormal distribution. This can be done correctly only by computer.

Besides spot and strike, one of course also needs all the other parameters like volatility, time to expiration, risk-free-rate, dividendsyield. In your case the latter two params can be set to 0.

Regarding Delta for the Put side: it is the result of the calculation "callDelta - 1". Ie. by definition, the Call Delta is >= 0 and Put Delta is <= 0.

 

[traderjo]

Like I wrote to you in the old thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...w-to-profit-of-it.348911/page-19#post-5185712 :

In the FairPut option pricing model, the PUT payoff at expiration is the same for the CALL for the inverse of the spot (ie. of the mirror image above or below the strike). But this is not a simple calculation like spot - strike or strike - spot, but has to be calculated correctly via the so called "z value" of the lognormal distribution. This can be done correctly only by computer.

Besides spot and strike, one of course also needs all the other parameters like volatility, time to expiration, risk-free-rate, dividendsyield. In your case the latter two params can be set to 0.

Regarding Delta for the Put side: it is the result of the calculation "callDelta - 1". Ie. by definition, the Call Delta is >= 0 and Put Delta is <= 0.

I was asking how it compares to normal PUT not a CALL , everything else being equal
In simple English without all the maths can you answer the questions I posed? otherwise until this product actually comes up all this is theory , if you have worked out how this product will work then you should be able to give a simple answer

 

[thecoder]

I was asking how it compares to normal PUT not a CALL , everything else being equal
In simple English without all the maths can you answer the questions I posed? otherwise until this product actually comes up all this is theory , if you have worked out how this product will work then you should be able to give a simple answer

As said in the initial posting and repeated also in later postings: a new option pricing model is needed for this FairPut to work correctly. That new pricing model is not finished yet, so you need to be patient. Yes, true, at the moment it's all just theory.
But generally the FairPut model does give a higher payoff for PUT than the BSM model does.
I hope next week it will be ready, then we can test your values and compare it to BSM.

 

[thecoder]

In all textbooks about the Black-Scholes formula, it is stated that "Ito's lemma" is the key.
This is total BS (the original meaning of BS ) as Ito's lemma is not needed at all! Not even in the Black-Scholes formula itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Itô's_lemma#Geometric_Brownian_motion

 

[thecoder]

Folks, you won't believe this! :
I just discovered a big fraudulent criminal conspiracy hidden in the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula!
This is of course unbelievable and unimaginable, but I swear this is really true and I can prove it mathematically!
Stay tuned! Proof and more info shortly...

Update:
BUT wait: would it be wise to publish my finding? Because it could lead to the collapse of all stock & option markets all around the world...

Hmm... I maybe should act responsibly and inform first Mr. Trump about the consequences of this hot stuff, and publish it only after the Nov 3 US elections. No?

Hey, with this sensitive hot information, I practically have the power to bring the world stock markets to a crash, at least to an halt for many weeks...
Should I now call myself "Goldfinger"?

 

[newwurldmn]

Folks, you want believe this! :
I just discovered a big criminal conspiracy hidden in the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula!
This is of course unbelievable and unimaginable, but I swear this is really true and I can prove it mathematically!
Stay tuned! More info shortly...

A CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY?!?!

You find those Illuminati symbols in the formula that Myron put in to signal the zionists when to Implement the New World Order!

did you tell Alex Jones or QAnon?

 

[thecoder]

Here's the proof that BSM is wrong:

BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=0.001%, r=25%, q=0%):
CALL=22.1199, PUT=0

This means: say we have a company where the volatility is nearly 0% (ie. 0.001%) and it earns 25% p.a.
So, after the year the expected stock price will be (at least):
100 * exp(0 * 0.001 * 1 + 0.25 * 1) = 128.4025
Ie. applying the formula: S * exp(z * s * t + r * t) by using z=0 for getting the expected spot, ie. the mean spot after expiration.

So, the CALL will have made 128.4025 - 100 - 22.1199 = 6.2826
This is IMO an arbitrage in the BSM pricing model,
because the CALL premium should rather be 28.4025 instead of the 22.1199.

Setting r higher gives even more arbitrage!

Q.E.D.

PS: this works the same also with normal, higher volatilities.
I chose volatility s=0.001% intentionally to simplify the calculations.

 

[traider]

Dont tell anyone that you can price it better. Use it to make billions in the financial markets. There are multiple groups already doing this. Its better for muppets to keep using it.

 

[xandman]

This means: say we have a company where the volatility is nearly 0% (ie. 0.001%) and it earns 25% p.a.
So, after the year the expected stock price will be (at least):
100 * exp(0 * 0.001 * 1 + 0.25 * 1) = 128.4025
Ie. applying the formula: S * exp(z * s * t + r * t) by using z=0 for getting the expected spot, ie. the mean spot after expiration.

What method of stock valuation is this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_valuation

 

[thecoder]

100 * exp(0 * 0.001 * 1 + 0.25 * 1) = 128.4025
Ie. applying the formula: S * exp(z * s * t + r * t) by using z=0 for getting the expected spot, ie. the mean spot after expiration.

Minor fixes, but the result stays the same :

100 * exp(0 * 0.00001 * 1 + (0.25 - 0) * 1) = 128.4025
Ie. applying the formula: S * exp(z * s * sqrt(t) + (r - q) * t) by using z=0 for getting the expected spot, ie. the mean spot after expiration.

Ie. converting s% to s by dividing it by 100.