The FairPut Initiative

thecoder · Aug 28, 2020

guru said:
Math needs to simulate market pricing, not the other way around.
Even if you arbitrage against a future price of an option, you will not survive margin calls before you profit. Tomorrow an option may cost 15x more than today due to volatility, and your broker will close your account before you can argue that your math is better.

Oki doki!

traderjo · Aug 28, 2020

thecoder said:
As said in the initial posting and repeated also in later postings: a new option pricing model is needed for this FairPut to work correctly. That new pricing model is not finished yet, so you need to be patient. Yes, true, at the moment it's all just theory.
But generally the FairPut model does give a higher payoff for PUT than the BSM model does.
I hope next week it will be ready, then we can test your values and compare it to BSM.

we all await next week :sneaky:

and even then unless this is a real product it is all useless, by the way why bother with ET just get a patent and go to the institutions publish a paper for pear review in major uni / publication etc

thecoder · Aug 29, 2020

traderjo said:
we all await next week and even then unless this is a real product it is all useless,

That's true for you and others maybe, not necessarily for me

Remember this: besides the real market, there is also an ideal simulated market where one can test and develop strategies under best conditions. It too needs tools and algorithms. In that stage I'm right now, where I need a fair PUT, ie. FairPUT

And this is also the normal and usual way for how new things enter the real world: by developing and testing it first in such a lab environment (simulation).

by the way why bother with ET just get a patent and go to the institutions publish a paper for pear review in major uni / publication etc

Why does it bother you at all? Since you unfortunately do not understand the reason and my motivation for why I see this as a necessary work to do. You better just continue doing your practical trading, and leave such research to researchers, I would suggest. Then both sides will be happy in their own world, I guess.
And: I've not studied finance at any university, so I can't do such academic research, I'm instead doing my research as a practitioner here right at ET

, as I am just a self-taught finance mathematician or quant or whatever. Whatever. Doesn't matter...

Pekelo · Aug 29, 2020

The whole approach of OP is a failure to understand the markets. It doesn't really matter if the options are mispriced, as long as the market accept them as the correct ones.

It is like coming up with a fundamental value for stocks and saying Tesla should be around $200 and not 2200 or Bitcoin under a hundred. As long as the market think the current price is the correct one, you can come up with any formula, the market will beat you and you will lose money fighting it.

On the other hand I am curious about the novel...

Hari Seldon · Aug 29, 2020

Overnight · Aug 29, 2020

thecoder said:
...as I am just a self-taught finance mathematician or quant or whatever. Whatever. Doesn't matter...

I reckon' it does matter to you a great deal. Yer looking to be the next John Nash...

But who's glory is it for? Yours, or the world's?

Kevin Schmit · Aug 29, 2020

Pekelo said:
It doesn't really matter if the options are mispriced, as long as the market accept them as the correct ones

This statement betrays a total lack of understanding of how options work. I'd try to explain it to you, but it has already been explained in this and other thecoder threads by numerous posters. If an option is mispriced, trade against the mispricing.

Pekelo · Aug 29, 2020

Kevin Schmit said:
If an option is mispriced, trade against the mispricing.

Go ahead. Thecoder's view is that ALL options are mispriced. So he should just trade against them, according to you, instead of trying to come up with a new formula.

thecoder · Aug 30, 2020

Pekelo said:
Go ahead. Thecoder's view is that ALL options are mispriced. So he should just trade against them, according to you, instead of trying to come up with a new formula.

@Pekelo, just think logically a little bit further: in theory both of them are possible to do and would make sense. I'm doing the 2nd one just because this seems easier to do for me than the 1st one, as I haven't thought much about making profit from the the 1st one yet (also unsure whether one can profit from that general mispricing of BSM at all)...

thecoder · Aug 30, 2020

I'm currently unfortunately stuck in my effort in finding the correct option pricing model.
In my model the impact of dividends causes some problems.
To understand the problem better, I created the following table as an helper:

Code:

BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=30%, r=0%, q=0%):
  CALL=11.923538474048 PUT=11.923538474048

Impact of r and q in BSM (using 0%, 5%, -5% for r, q):
  r   q                                                logical?   Comments

  0   0   CALL=11.923538474048 PUT=11.923538474048     y

  5   0   CALL=14.231254785986 PUT=9.354197236057      y
 -5   0   CALL=9.833797184067  PUT=14.960906821670     y

  0   5   CALL=9.354197236057  PUT=14.231254785986     y          like r = -5, q = 0
  0  -5   CALL=14.960906821670 PUT=9.833797184067      y          like r =  5, q = 0

  5   5   CALL=11.342020640681 PUT=11.342020640681     y          like r =  5 - 5 = 0,   q = 0
  5  -5   CALL=17.592110958058 PUT=7.587943770527      y          like r =  5 + 5 = 10,  q = 0

 -5   5   CALL=7.587943770527  PUT=17.592110958058     y          like r = -5 - 5 = -10, q = 0
 -5  -5   CALL=12.534871364295 PUT=12.534871364295    (y)         like r = -5 + 5 = 0,   q = 0



Same with s=0.001% :

BSM(S=100, K=100, t=1, s=0.001%, r=0%, q=0%):
  CALL=0.000398942280  PUT=0.000398942280

Impact of r and q in BSM (using 0%, 5%, -5% for r, q):
  r   q                                                logical?   Comments

  0   0   CALL=0.000398942280  PUT=0.000398942280      y

  5   0   CALL=4.877057549929  PUT=0.000000000000      y
 -5   0   CALL=0.000000000000  PUT=5.127109637602      y

  0   5   CALL=0.000000000000  PUT=4.877057549929      y          like r = -5, q = 0
  0  -5   CALL=5.127109637602  PUT=0.000000000000      y          like r =  5, q = 0

  5   5   CALL=0.000379485636  PUT=0.000379485636      y          like r =  5 - 5 = 0,   q = 0
  5  -5   CALL=10.004167187531 PUT=0.000000000000      y          like r =  5 + 5 = 10,  q = 0

 -5   5   CALL=0.000000000000  PUT=10.004167187531     y          like r = -5 - 5 = -10, q = 0
 -5  -5   CALL=0.000419396489  PUT=0.000419396489      y          like r = -5 + 5 = 0,   q = 0

Just a braindump / thinking aloud...

PS: crypto hint #2