oy vey, stock I just got back from a surfing/pig roast. I have gone on record saying whenever you think "it's time to buy" I sell. I sold 2x you fucking moron. 1st shot was at 95.12, just after you said it was "time to buy" mkt tanked from there. I saw it quoted with a 92 handle the DAY AFTER you're 1st call. I average INTO winners. You buy hold and pray. BIG DIFFERNCE!
The Face of Things to Come
- Thread starter michaelscott
- Start date
Suuuure....
The question is how much money do you want to lose?
The question is how much money do you have? Oh yeah, I already know, $100k in new worth!
And a 17" monitor!
Now fill in the gap, how old are you?
You never had a retarded retort for me after I told you about my gains...why not Hamburgler?
It appears the pre-market picture is not positive.
I noted the high for the SPX the last few weeks was approximately 1540 while the bottom came at 1487. There was a reaction rally retracing almost perfectly 1/3 of the drop. I attribute this to short covering as shorts predictably started covering at the 50 day moving average.
Therefore, a move under 1487 means that the new target will be 1434 calculated with the following formula 1487-(1540-1487).
This makes sense as well anecdotally as it would be a retracement to the lip of the cup and to the ultimate line of resistance.
A bounce or break of the resistance is crucial to the future of the equities markets. When price pivots off of a major resistance line it usually leads to a breakout. When it breaks, then it usually leads to a waterfall type selloff where price is lowered parabolically.
The logic that follows this is that no one will buy until the price reaches a logical point. A logical point to buy would be right at the lip of the cup or along the line of ultimate resistance. If the ultimate line of resistance fails, then no buying will occur until at least a logical retracement of the 7 year SPX cup. This is usually 1/2, but could be 1/3 or 2/3.
Most definately, if the line of ultimate resistance is broken then we will be entering new territory that might become similiar to the 1970s SPX. This market basically resembled a reverse head and shoulders where price would come down to a certain point only to retrace to the original line of resistance and then chop back down again. This action did occur over a 16 year period while the TNX was rising. It was only until the TNX started falling did the price break out of this enormous base.
I honestly see a possibility where the TNX could retrace half its height from the drop from 1983. The resulting yield and top will be about 9%. Now this is very important to the thesis.
The markets did not rise until the TNX started to retreat in the 70s-80s timeframe. So with the same logic, the markets will not start rising again until the TNX starts to retreat.
The timeframe for all of this is arguable, but certainly markets tend to fall faster then they advance.
I feel a break of the ultimate resistance will lead to a multi-year basing action similiar to the 70s, but I doubt the 16 year time-frame will be the same.
I noted the high for the SPX the last few weeks was approximately 1540 while the bottom came at 1487. There was a reaction rally retracing almost perfectly 1/3 of the drop. I attribute this to short covering as shorts predictably started covering at the 50 day moving average.
Therefore, a move under 1487 means that the new target will be 1434 calculated with the following formula 1487-(1540-1487).
This makes sense as well anecdotally as it would be a retracement to the lip of the cup and to the ultimate line of resistance.
A bounce or break of the resistance is crucial to the future of the equities markets. When price pivots off of a major resistance line it usually leads to a breakout. When it breaks, then it usually leads to a waterfall type selloff where price is lowered parabolically.
The logic that follows this is that no one will buy until the price reaches a logical point. A logical point to buy would be right at the lip of the cup or along the line of ultimate resistance. If the ultimate line of resistance fails, then no buying will occur until at least a logical retracement of the 7 year SPX cup. This is usually 1/2, but could be 1/3 or 2/3.
Most definately, if the line of ultimate resistance is broken then we will be entering new territory that might become similiar to the 1970s SPX. This market basically resembled a reverse head and shoulders where price would come down to a certain point only to retrace to the original line of resistance and then chop back down again. This action did occur over a 16 year period while the TNX was rising. It was only until the TNX started falling did the price break out of this enormous base.
I honestly see a possibility where the TNX could retrace half its height from the drop from 1983. The resulting yield and top will be about 9%. Now this is very important to the thesis.
The markets did not rise until the TNX started to retreat in the 70s-80s timeframe. So with the same logic, the markets will not start rising again until the TNX starts to retreat.
The timeframe for all of this is arguable, but certainly markets tend to fall faster then they advance.
I feel a break of the ultimate resistance will lead to a multi-year basing action similiar to the 70s, but I doubt the 16 year time-frame will be the same.
There you go again spewing that TA gibberish.
Yeah, stupid Wall St. and their use of TA...it's too bad losers with net worths of $100k and 17" monitors don't make the rules!
Let me spew out a little more "TA nonsense". Volume sucked on Friday and its worse to today (so far). I really don't like to trade during expiration week, i'm down a great big $24 this am and i'm bored with this market chop and am just going to stay out unless i see some sign of life. The yield on the ten year continues to rise and these little mini-bull moves up are on really crappy volume. This is decidedly bearish.
Hi Stocktrad3r! I will have to make you look like an idiot again, but oh well you seem to make that happen pretty regularly yourself! I am will in wait this out. I have a 2% stop so lets do the math. 2% of 94.6= rounded off $1.90+94.6=96.5ish i'll get stopped out. My loss will be about 12k. Big fucking deal. I will continue to post here until I either get stopped out or I cover. The lows this thing traded last week was 92.30 ish. When we get back to last weeks lows i'll form an exit strategy. I usualll will not take a trade if the rr is less than 3/1 so there you go. Now i'll find the post where I sold em the 1st time!
frank grimes
Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 468
06-06-07 09:28 AM
I wasn't short it yesterday but I said I would to get you in a lather. short at 95.12. Right about where you are long. We'll see who wins. I'm using a 2% stop. If we break last weeks lows i'll dbl it. If and when the spoo goes below last weeks low, i'm selling that as well.
Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 468
06-06-07 09:28 AM
I wasn't short it yesterday but I said I would to get you in a lather. short at 95.12. Right about where you are long. We'll see who wins. I'm using a 2% stop. If we break last weeks lows i'll dbl it. If and when the spoo goes below last weeks low, i'm selling that as well.