The Experts, Media and Covid Doomsayers were wrong about Florida

[CaptainObvious]

The duck ordering had been done. A lot of extra corruption nobody needs from the regime in power but the pause had to be done.

Your dimmer switch notion would have over 300k dead by now as best I can tell and people would be screaming to lock down. Then five minutes later grumbling again.

Am I missing something, or would exponential spread have dimmed? How would it have worked?

Every time I think of the old enough to know better American people thinking they are being cute with my rights and my freedumb or death..

Anyway my literally brain damaged after a car crash ten years father-in-law ago locked the electronic keys in the car looking for his pen. The car locks itself in 60 seconds .. I have to walk to town for supplies. If this was the first time he had done this in five years it would be OK..

My wife did not have the spare as her obsession with carrying nothing she does not immediately need including individual credit card sized electronic keys (so heavy) got the best of her the day we left the city to the country house.. Now I walk to town..

The world is full of egits.

I don't know if the spread would have slowed down, we never tried so we'll never know. I agree that while "dimming" the death count would have risen, perhaps dramatically. We'll never know that either. What I'm saying, cold as it is, that number of potential dead was worth the risk considering it in relation to the overall population. Now if you're telling me that number is a couple million in a month with no idea of what the next move is, then yes, lockdown justified. It also assumes we would see no improvement in treatment protocols which we have already seen. Still count me in the we went too far, too fast crowd. As stated, we'll never really know.

 

[Snarkhund]

It's a cautionary tale for large urban areas. Completely agree more strict measures for those areas. Not convinced that needs to be the broader approach nationwide. Prudent but softer measures probably sufficient for smaller communities.

Normally I'm capable of handling some complexity.

But the notion of "herd immunity" has confused me to the point of not knowing what is best.

Take Oregon. Few infections and few deaths and locked down pretty tight right now. What is the expectation if lock-down was abruptly ended? Has the state failed to achieve "herd immunity"?

Would deaths just balloon upward because few have been infected due to their effective isolation? At this point I don't know. Its a terrible choice to have to make.

Oh yeah the CDC came out with some horrific projection today that is going to hit the pause button on reopening. Really huge death projection and the WH is completely pissed off.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Yeah but the panic of COVID and the panic of the shutdown is being sold nationally so I am not looking at it regioanlly.

But national media and DEM and GOP leadership is playing a shit game of tennis of selling what a global catastrophe Corona is versus what a destruction of economies and families were are creating with nothing in the middle to simply handle the issue which is a purely medical one.

I fele both sides have overblown thier argument because neither side gives a shit about what is actually happenning...only winning a point.

Damage is done but our government get swept up in the "I am right" game rather than address this issue head on like we saw in Soouth Korea, taiwan, Japan and numerous other countries. From Trump down to the Governors it was like watching a bunch of children bitch and moan about everything with our cheeto wasting so much time trying to prove he is right (wrong) and governors try and prove they are right (wrong) and the rest of us got screwed.

In addition to Trump talking out of his ass daily and lying, you think I also needed to hear Gov. Cuomo get 60 minutes of air time to create some of the most runny verbal diahrrhea I have seen in years?

I would like to see Biden win in 2020 to remove the useless shit we have now and I also would love to see McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer, and the other GOP asshat in HoR I am blanking out on removed from power and marginalzied. Anyone in those camps or Bernie's camp not needed.

The government handled the crisis like a bunch of camp counselors in a Friday the 13th movie.

U.S. has hit a low in political culture.

With the luxury of speaking to clients in Malaysia, Japan, China, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico and a few other places, the U.S. is being laughed at in how they handled this and the constant jumbled and confused messages that was put out by all the media (yes all the media) and the people in power of both parties.

A simple 45 to 60 day strict protocol enacted at the end of February would have us in right now by Stage 3 of the opening process with half the amount of federal aid needed to assist those affected.

Instead we are getting almost 90 days of this fuck flea vagina circus.

I could care less about the political environment and only care about restoring the economy and people's livelihood.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Oh yeah the CDC came out with some horrific projection today that is going to hit the pause button on reopening. Really huge death projection and the WH is completely pissed off.

Because they've been so right so far, why not completely turn the keys to the nation over to them?

Bunch of shit bags, the lot of 'em.

 

[murray t turtle]

Rather than view NYC as an exception, why not view it as a cautionary tale? A canary in the coal mine. Because the less populated areas will catch up in due course if they ignore the virus.

%%$
Canary in coal mine?? OK
But big danger difference between a deep dark pit+ open pit coal mine.
And why does the media hide the average virus US recovery rate of 99%/98%??
WELL its an election year...…………………………………………………………...Thanks

 

[CaptainObvious]

Yeah but the panic of COVID and the panic of the shutdown is being sold nationally so I am not looking at it regioanlly.

But national media and DEM and GOP leadership is playing a shit game of tennis of selling what a global catastrophe Corona is versus what a destruction of economies and families were are creating with nothing in the middle to simply handle the issue which is a purely medical one.

I fele both sides have overblown thier argument because neither side gives a shit about what is actually happenning...only winning a point.

Damage is done but our government get swept up in the "I am right" game rather than address this issue head on like we saw in Soouth Korea, taiwan, Japan and numerous other countries. From Trump down to the Governors it was like watching a bunch of children bitch and moan about everything with our cheeto wasting so much time trying to prove he is right (wrong) and governors try and prove they are right (wrong) and the rest of us got screwed.

In addition to Trump talking out of his ass daily and lying, you think I also needed to hear Gov. Cuomo get 60 minutes of air time to create some of the most runny verbal diahrrhea I have seen in years?

I would like to see Biden win in 2020 to remove the useless shit we have now and I also would love to see McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer, and the other GOP asshat in HoR I am blanking out on removed from power and marginalzied. Anyone in those camps or Bernie's camp not needed.

The government handled the crisis like a bunch of camp counselors in a Friday the 13th movie.

U.S. has hit a low in political culture.

With the luxury of speaking to clients in Malaysia, Japan, China, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico and a few other places, the U.S. is being laughed at in how they handled this and the constant jumbled and confused messages that was put out by all the media (yes all the media) and the people in power of both parties.

A simple 45 to 60 day strict protocol enacted at the end of February would have us in right now by Stage 3 of the opening process with half the amount of federal aid needed to assist those affected.

Instead we are getting almost 90 days of this fuck flea vagina circus.

So you're saying this was poorly handled? LOL. I couldn't agree more on nearly every point. Not so sure Joe is a better solution, but Trump isn't my favorite choice. Hard for me to believe Biden is the best candidate they can come up with. If that is truly the case we really are fucked

 

[Snarkhund]

Because they've been so right so far, why not completely turn the keys to the nation over to them?

Bunch of shit bags, the lot of 'em.

I think I've mentioned I wrote some code that the CDC adopted into its archaic data processes. I interacted some with them and was not impressed. They are a full generation behind, even with that huge budget of theirs. They're the ones who should be out testing on a large scale. Instead they are hurling bombs from their tower in Atlanta. The numbers they put out today are freak-out numbers. Irresponsible.

 

[Tsing Tao]

I think I've mentioned I wrote some code that the CDC adopted into its archaic data processes. I interacted some with them and was not impressed. They are a full generation behind, even with that huge budget of theirs. They're the ones who should be out testing on a large scale. Instead they are hurling bombs from their tower in Atlanta. The numbers they put out today are freak-out numbers. Irresponsible.

Totally not surprising. The CDC is a government agency, subject to the same bureaucracy any other government entity would be, and the same cronyism and inefficiencies.

 

[jem]

The expectation for a tightly lockdown community which does not have immunity....

1. if they let low risk people out, and keep high risk people isolated, we would expect the low risk group to catch the virus and spread it to other low risk people. Society would monitor to avoid hospital overwhelm.

a. if virus is highly contagious... the lockdown probably did nothing overall as you expect most people to still get hit with the virus once they are out of lockdown. ( The lockdown only shifted the timing)

b. if the virus does not spread that easily (say an effective Rate of Spread of less than 1 among low risk groups) You could in theory test and trace it and keep the breakouts controlled. However, if the virus is not highly contagious... there was probably no reason to lock down low risk healthy people once you isolated high risk groups.

---
One other factor on this subject to consider.
1. there may be people who just don't get the virus...

Today a Stanford professor said the evidence seems to also show the virus burns out after 4 weeks. So this brings up some other concepts.

a. one could be that the virus may go through the population quickly and some may build immunity and others were never going to catch it. (this later thought is not necessarily my belief... we need more data on why the Stanford professor stated it may burn out after 4 weeks of ramping.

note... this is not a complete list of all possibilities.

Normally I'm capable of handling some complexity.

But the notion of "herd immunity" has confused me to the point of not knowing what is best.

Take Oregon. Few infections and few deaths and locked down pretty tight right now. What is the expectation if lock-down was abruptly ended? Has the state failed to achieve "herd immunity"?

Would deaths just balloon upward because few have been infected due to their effective isolation? At this point I don't know. Its a terrible choice to have to make.

Oh yeah the CDC came out with some horrific projection today that is going to hit the pause button on reopening. Really huge death projection and the WH is completely pissed off.

 

[Snarkhund]

The expectation for a tightly lockdown community which does not have immunity....

1. if they let low risk people out, and keep high risk people stay isolated, we would expect the low risk group to catch the virus and spread it to other low risk people. Society would monitor to avoid hospital overwhelm.

a. if virus is highly contagious... the lockdown probably did nothing overall as you expect most people to still get hit with the virus once they are out of lockdown. ( The lockdown only shifted the timing)

b. if the virus does not spread that easily (say an effective Rate of Spread of less than 1 among low risk groups) You could in theory test and trace it and keep the breakouts controlled. However, if the virus is not highly contagious... there was probably no reason to lock down low risk healthy people once you isolated high risk groups.

---
One other factor on this subject to consider.
1. there may be people who just don't get the virus...

Today a stanford professor said the evidence seems to also show the virus burns out after 4 weeks. So this brings up some other concepts.

a. once could be that the virus may go through the population quickly and some may build immunity and others were never going to catch it. (this later thought is not necessarily my belief... we need more data on why the Stanford professor stated it may burn out after 4 weeks of ramping.

note... this is not a complete list of all possibilities.

Excellent... thank you.

So its still intuitive. A locked-down non-immune population is basically still subject to to a blow up in numbers depending on how it is reopened.

If you reopen some people are going to lose their lives that would not otherwise under lock-down. If you remain locked-down you risk catastrophic financial harm to a large portion of the population.

This is why I don't like being in charge. Who wants to make those kind of decisions? I don't mind being chief engineer or something technical but don't expect me to make those kind of people decisions. Its life or death and I'm lucky if my socks match.