The Evolution of an E-mini Trader
- Thread starter Huios
- Start date
huios,
you have come a long way baby...
your setups and everything, well worked out. you are struggling with fear + greed...perhaps cut down your size until you are really really confident in your setups...another point: i personally try to make myself a picture of the coming session. will this be a buy day/sell day/ zigzag day. in case you have for example 3 downdays in a row, chance is high, that the 4. day will be up (warning: this kind of thinking can also be very misleading !). you can also take the "2-period ROC" mentioned by linda raschke or something like that.
happy trading
you have come a long way baby...
your setups and everything, well worked out. you are struggling with fear + greed...perhaps cut down your size until you are really really confident in your setups...another point: i personally try to make myself a picture of the coming session. will this be a buy day/sell day/ zigzag day. in case you have for example 3 downdays in a row, chance is high, that the 4. day will be up (warning: this kind of thinking can also be very misleading !). you can also take the "2-period ROC" mentioned by linda raschke or something like that.
happy trading
Thanks, I needed the encouragement.
I'm looking at my concepts, and really like them. They are simple, and hold out to real time testing, ie, been tracking them since the beginning of June. I know the concepts work, it is just a matter of me getting my timing down, and being able to jump back in when it doesn't work the first time around, sometimes that is 45 seconds later (trades #3 & 4) to half an hour later (trade #2).
I feel like I am just on the verge of a breakthrough. Not another epiphany (luv that word) but a real breakthrough. Actually my wife, out of the blue, confirmed that last night by saying the same thing concerning my trading.
Fear and greed. This week was the first time I really saw them rear their ugly heads, that I noticed. They probably were there, in the background, but other "stuff" was in the way. Demons, as one said. They really are!!!
Cut down on my contract size, LOL, I am only trading one contract per trade!!! Is there a mini of the mini? LOL.
Overall I had a good week. Took some bigger losses than I would have wanted too, and didn't get enough wins, but next week is another chance to play the game.
I'm looking at my concepts, and really like them. They are simple, and hold out to real time testing, ie, been tracking them since the beginning of June. I know the concepts work, it is just a matter of me getting my timing down, and being able to jump back in when it doesn't work the first time around, sometimes that is 45 seconds later (trades #3 & 4) to half an hour later (trade #2).
I feel like I am just on the verge of a breakthrough. Not another epiphany (luv that word) but a real breakthrough. Actually my wife, out of the blue, confirmed that last night by saying the same thing concerning my trading.
Fear and greed. This week was the first time I really saw them rear their ugly heads, that I noticed. They probably were there, in the background, but other "stuff" was in the way. Demons, as one said. They really are!!!
Cut down on my contract size, LOL, I am only trading one contract per trade!!! Is there a mini of the mini? LOL.
Overall I had a good week. Took some bigger losses than I would have wanted too, and didn't get enough wins, but next week is another chance to play the game.
Huios,
"I feel like I am just on the verge of a breakthrough."
I enjoy your journal. I'm just a struggling trader myself so please
feel free to take what I have to say with a grain of salt but I
must say looking at your most recent trades that you appear
to still have extremely small stop losses. Which means that
you're asking your trades to go in your favour immeadiately.
But it seems to me that the noise in S&P500 doesn't allow this.
I know this has all been said before. I think you need to give
your trades more of a chance to go in your direction with
a wider stop loss.
I also think that always trading with just one contract is difficult
and not very satisfying. When I feel a little confident I trade
with 2 contracts using a 2 point stop loss and I take profits
at 2 points on one contract and move the stop loss to break
even; then I sit back and relax and see what develops, hopefully
its a 10 point gain. You can see that the initial risk/reward ratio
is 1:1 so I do require that I have some runaway winners on the
second contract to be nicely profitable.
Anyway, I have been waiting for my "breakthrough" to happen
so I'm interested to know when yours happens to what do
you think you will attribute it to? Is it just perserverance?
Richard
"I feel like I am just on the verge of a breakthrough."
I enjoy your journal. I'm just a struggling trader myself so please
feel free to take what I have to say with a grain of salt but I
must say looking at your most recent trades that you appear
to still have extremely small stop losses. Which means that
you're asking your trades to go in your favour immeadiately.
But it seems to me that the noise in S&P500 doesn't allow this.
I know this has all been said before. I think you need to give
your trades more of a chance to go in your direction with
a wider stop loss.
I also think that always trading with just one contract is difficult
and not very satisfying. When I feel a little confident I trade
with 2 contracts using a 2 point stop loss and I take profits
at 2 points on one contract and move the stop loss to break
even; then I sit back and relax and see what develops, hopefully
its a 10 point gain. You can see that the initial risk/reward ratio
is 1:1 so I do require that I have some runaway winners on the
second contract to be nicely profitable.
Anyway, I have been waiting for my "breakthrough" to happen
so I'm interested to know when yours happens to what do
you think you will attribute it to? Is it just perserverance?
Richard
Huios,
An observation: Your stops are TOO TIGHT.
And this coming from the king of ultra tight stops. (Just ask AllenZ)
The noise range of the S&P e-mini is 2 points ($100). You, (and I) are going to have to steel ourselves to having stops of 2 to 3 points ($100 to $150) per trade.
Notice that in trade one at 11:19, you would ahve had to sit through exactly 2 points of wiggle, but would have gotten anywhere from even to plus 2 points depending on your out.
The trade at 12:26 was similar, giving numerous opportunities to get out even, or with a tiny profit. You would have had to sit through 3 points of wiggle to then get anywhere from +3 to possibly a 10+ point winner.
However, I know for a blooming fact... if I have been underwater 3 points, I will be OUT of that trade if I get back to even.
Similarly, the afternoon trades would have paid off handsomely with a couple of points wiggle room.
I can point these out so clearly, because I do EXACTLY the same thing. (The death of a thousand cuts)
So........ where do we put in the "this trade is NFG I'm gone" point? I am thinking 2 or possibly 3 points. But...... then we have to suffer a get out at -3.0, then possibly turn around and do it again. (Yeah I know, get better entries)
Clearly, if a trade is not working, we should get out. But the problem arises as to just when a trade is judged to be "not working".
Generally, I want to get out if it moves immediately against me by 1 point or so, and the comes back to even. What actually happens far too often, is that the trade moves against me a point or so, then I panic out and sell/cover, only to have it going my way soon thereafter.
But then..... invariably if I stay with it, that is the one that DOESN'T come back and I eat a 2 or 3 point loss. Gotta get consistant.
Your entries on this day looked OK to me... but I am a novice too. They definitely were either get outable (huh ??) or paid off well.
So... grit your teeth.. take larger stops, and GET IN when you see the opportunities.
Now I shall go and tell myself the same things.
An observation: Your stops are TOO TIGHT.
And this coming from the king of ultra tight stops. (Just ask AllenZ)
The noise range of the S&P e-mini is 2 points ($100). You, (and I) are going to have to steel ourselves to having stops of 2 to 3 points ($100 to $150) per trade.
Notice that in trade one at 11:19, you would ahve had to sit through exactly 2 points of wiggle, but would have gotten anywhere from even to plus 2 points depending on your out.
The trade at 12:26 was similar, giving numerous opportunities to get out even, or with a tiny profit. You would have had to sit through 3 points of wiggle to then get anywhere from +3 to possibly a 10+ point winner.
However, I know for a blooming fact... if I have been underwater 3 points, I will be OUT of that trade if I get back to even.
Similarly, the afternoon trades would have paid off handsomely with a couple of points wiggle room.
I can point these out so clearly, because I do EXACTLY the same thing. (The death of a thousand cuts)
So........ where do we put in the "this trade is NFG I'm gone" point? I am thinking 2 or possibly 3 points. But...... then we have to suffer a get out at -3.0, then possibly turn around and do it again. (Yeah I know, get better entries)
Clearly, if a trade is not working, we should get out. But the problem arises as to just when a trade is judged to be "not working".
Generally, I want to get out if it moves immediately against me by 1 point or so, and the comes back to even. What actually happens far too often, is that the trade moves against me a point or so, then I panic out and sell/cover, only to have it going my way soon thereafter.
But then..... invariably if I stay with it, that is the one that DOESN'T come back and I eat a 2 or 3 point loss. Gotta get consistant.
Your entries on this day looked OK to me... but I am a novice too. They definitely were either get outable (huh ??) or paid off well.
So... grit your teeth.. take larger stops, and GET IN when you see the opportunities.
Now I shall go and tell myself the same things.
Some liken the S & P emini to war, but to me its more like poker verging on a soap opera. Gauging the mood of the character is the first step in adjusting stops. Whether its "Chop," "Smooth Trend," "Green Scream," "Ping Pong," "Melt-up or Down," all determine a stop's intrinsic risk/reward "weighting," whether set monetarily or on a market stucture basis. The latter is better, since it is based on objective price action and character of the market ; the former is worse typically based on the tolerance of the trader. Price usually always returns; you do get a second pull back entry opp. or a level to reverse quickly, unless the momo is pure blow and go. One usually knows if s/he's right or wrong...right away. And if you entered on good signals, and it goes against, just reverse because, no doubt others acted just like you..its a race to reverse...why get buried, when you can take the move?--Peterg