The Evolution of an E-mini Trader
- Thread starter Huios
- Start date
Of my 7 trades yesterday, 6 were losers and 1 was a winner.
All of the 7 were good trades. A good trade is a trade taken according to my plan. Two of the 7 (#2 and 3) the market reversed, and I took too big of a loss on one of them (#3).
All had reasonably good entries.
My timing was off on 3 and 4.
#'s 1, 4, 5, and 6 were in the right direction, but I exited too early.
I had no business exiting # 1, 5, and 6. My psychology got in the way. Notice on 3, 4, 5, and 6, I exited almost at the high tick, right before the market moved in my direction. Looking back over the last few days, I find I do this more than I care to admit.
The Dilemma: Hold on to the loss and wait for the reversal, and take bigger losses when it don't happen... or take the small loss, more trades and commiss., and then have the balls to jump right back in, except at a better price.
My plan says to take the small loss, because 2-3 commissions generated making sure I get in a certain move, don't even come close to adding up to the 1.5 - 2.5 point ($50/pt) losses AND missing the move because of frustration.
All of the 7 were good trades. A good trade is a trade taken according to my plan. Two of the 7 (#2 and 3) the market reversed, and I took too big of a loss on one of them (#3).
All had reasonably good entries.
My timing was off on 3 and 4.
#'s 1, 4, 5, and 6 were in the right direction, but I exited too early.
I had no business exiting # 1, 5, and 6. My psychology got in the way. Notice on 3, 4, 5, and 6, I exited almost at the high tick, right before the market moved in my direction. Looking back over the last few days, I find I do this more than I care to admit.
The Dilemma: Hold on to the loss and wait for the reversal, and take bigger losses when it don't happen... or take the small loss, more trades and commiss., and then have the balls to jump right back in, except at a better price.
My plan says to take the small loss, because 2-3 commissions generated making sure I get in a certain move, don't even come close to adding up to the 1.5 - 2.5 point ($50/pt) losses AND missing the move because of frustration.
Huios
You said that you made 7 good trades as you followed your plan but then you go on to say that you exited too early or you took too big a loss. Reading between the lines it would seem that you do not have a plan for your exits and therefor don't really have a plan for the trade as a trade is composed of both an entry and an exit.
Have you considered using hard profit or stop targets and tried sticking with them. If you set hard targets/stops then you can relax and let the market do it's own thing while you are free to look for good entries. If you set you're target at 2x your stop (or whatever R:R you want) and you can bang out 50% winning trades then you should have a positive expectancy system. A simple premise but one that you can make work for you.
I have found, through my own trading, that if I try and work my exit 'after' I have got into a trade, I inevitably slowly start taking smaller profits and bigger losses. Once I switched to hard targets and stops, the probabilties started working in my favor over the longer term.
Just my 2 cents.
You said that you made 7 good trades as you followed your plan but then you go on to say that you exited too early or you took too big a loss. Reading between the lines it would seem that you do not have a plan for your exits and therefor don't really have a plan for the trade as a trade is composed of both an entry and an exit.
Have you considered using hard profit or stop targets and tried sticking with them. If you set hard targets/stops then you can relax and let the market do it's own thing while you are free to look for good entries. If you set you're target at 2x your stop (or whatever R:R you want) and you can bang out 50% winning trades then you should have a positive expectancy system. A simple premise but one that you can make work for you.
I have found, through my own trading, that if I try and work my exit 'after' I have got into a trade, I inevitably slowly start taking smaller profits and bigger losses. Once I switched to hard targets and stops, the probabilties started working in my favor over the longer term.
Just my 2 cents.
I have used a similar technique, but because I feel that the indicies rarely will hit your exit price on the dime, I place two lines around what I consider my "entry zone", "cover zone", and "stop out zone". This gives me a bit more leeway on entering, exiting and removing the position. I place all of these lines on an intermediate time frame, something like 45" or 135"min. Then I have the permission to scale down to a more comfortable time frame to work the entries, exits, etc...
I say this, because if you hold your plan to a specific exit, say for instance 1010.00 today, and the market hits 1011.25 and then reverses back to 1016.00, you are going to find yourself getting burned...Best to start partialing out of your position into the cover zone and max it out when the movement is in your favor...
I say this, because if you hold your plan to a specific exit, say for instance 1010.00 today, and the market hits 1011.25 and then reverses back to 1016.00, you are going to find yourself getting burned...Best to start partialing out of your position into the cover zone and max it out when the movement is in your favor...
I use almost always use limit orders and try to make them "fillable" in the interest of gettig a little early rather than not at all.
Today was a great day. Read vultures, macs, and dotslashs posts and knew I had more work to do on my exits. Thanks. More on that in a separate post.
Recognized the uptrend, HH-HL's...
Trade 1 - Got an excellent entry. Watched it rise, then jump for a positive 4 points. Then... noticed that my charts were slower than my quotes, during the fast market, by as much as a point or more.
Was looking to get out at a cool 4 pts, but it started dropping like a rock. Knew I just blew a great trade. Hoped it would come back, and of course it never did. Took a 1 pt loss on that trade.
Knew, really knew exits needed work.
Ended up comparing the chart and quotes the rest of the way down. Most they were off was 1.25 pts, from what I could tell.
Trade 2 - Short off a retrace, but it didn't retrace. Loss of .75
Retraced to the fib 38% line...
Trade 3 - Short and held for a gain of 1.75 Wasn't sure if a double bottom was gonna form, or it was gonna go up, so took the money and ran. The big trend was down, and should have stuck to my guns.
Big spike up at noon. Was gonna go long off the double bottom, just before it happened. Shoulda, coulda, woulda.
The trade I missed was shorting the rally. Noticing that most all major "numbers" move, retrace back to where they started from. Todays, last Fridays. etc. Don't know if this is a good play, but I'm watching for them from now on.
Recognized the uptrend, HH-HL's...
Trade 1 - Got an excellent entry. Watched it rise, then jump for a positive 4 points. Then... noticed that my charts were slower than my quotes, during the fast market, by as much as a point or more.
Was looking to get out at a cool 4 pts, but it started dropping like a rock. Knew I just blew a great trade. Hoped it would come back, and of course it never did. Took a 1 pt loss on that trade. Knew, really knew exits needed work.
Ended up comparing the chart and quotes the rest of the way down. Most they were off was 1.25 pts, from what I could tell.
Trade 2 - Short off a retrace, but it didn't retrace. Loss of .75
Retraced to the fib 38% line...
Trade 3 - Short and held for a gain of 1.75 Wasn't sure if a double bottom was gonna form, or it was gonna go up, so took the money and ran. The big trend was down, and should have stuck to my guns.
Big spike up at noon. Was gonna go long off the double bottom, just before it happened. Shoulda, coulda, woulda.
The trade I missed was shorting the rally. Noticing that most all major "numbers" move, retrace back to where they started from. Todays, last Fridays. etc. Don't know if this is a good play, but I'm watching for them from now on.
Only one trade this afternoon.
Trade 4 - Going short after lunch. Move down, caught the retrace and the market kept going up. Knew this puppy was going down and held on till the big bar down. Exited near the low. Gain of 1 pt.
Lots of big minute bars the next hour. I didn't like the action, to volatile, so I just watched. Should have gone short around 15:00 after things settled down. But I didn't and just watched. Attempted to get in around 15:30, but missed it. Trying to catch the high tic of the retracement, and lost the move.
4 trades, 2 winners, 2 losers
Net for the day: +30.60
Net for the week: -59.50
Net for the month: +68.80
Trade 4 - Going short after lunch. Move down, caught the retrace and the market kept going up. Knew this puppy was going down and held on till the big bar down. Exited near the low. Gain of 1 pt.
Lots of big minute bars the next hour. I didn't like the action, to volatile, so I just watched. Should have gone short around 15:00 after things settled down. But I didn't and just watched. Attempted to get in around 15:30, but missed it. Trying to catch the high tic of the retracement, and lost the move.
4 trades, 2 winners, 2 losers
Net for the day: +30.60
Net for the week: -59.50
Net for the month: +68.80
For the range chart, basically using a 5 pt minium move and my eyeball. Completely subjective.
Used to use Metastock EOD, and that had a function called ZigZag, that basically did the same thing. You could change the parameters to suit the level of sensitivity you wanted. GET has alot of stuff I like, but some things I miss, ie ATR.