Aberation is a good system and Keith has always struck me as an honest vendor. However, I dont think it is prudent to trade the portfolio listed with anything close to 10K.
The Evolution of an E-mini Trader
- Thread starter Huios
- Start date
Aberation is a good system and Keith has always struck me as an honest vendor. However, I dont think it is prudent to trade the portfolio listed with anything close to 10K.
I agree, but according to his website, if you would have started with 15K, 5 for margin, and 10 for drawdown, you would have been profitable in 19 of 19 years. I spent 5 hours with my friend in TX with him explaining it to me. I always thought the DD, using the system would blow out the 10K quickly, but, he showed me otherwise. It didn't make sense to my brain, but he said that is why it worked, because it didn't make sense to most traders.
Go figure.
H
are those results (19 for 19 years) with or without palladium? I remember in 2000/2001 when palladium alone would move up or down $5,000 or more per day and the margin was around $100,000. I guess thats why he switched out of it
I agree, except maybe for the S&P. When I did my backtesting several years ago, I found that channel break systems, such as buy 30 day high, etc, worked as well as anything on currencies and bonds. There will be drawdowns. There will also be enormous profits if you have the nerve to sit with them and give a portion back from time to time.
A decent system should be able to avoid blowing out if it is using a margin to equity ratio of 1/3. Can you describe the general logic of Aberration? I know it has been around a while. What about it didn't make sense to you?
It is a basic trend following system that exposes "aberrations" in a market, and trades all 8 groups of commodities, so it is well diversified. Most use it on an EOD basis. I know it uses a large ma at the trigger. He recommends 10-30K for the starter portfolio. That's about all I know.
What I couldn't fathom was the large stops. Sometimes greater than 10-20% of your account. But the smaller your account, the larger % wise the stops. Drawdown might have been 30-50% at times, but made money in almost every 12 month period.
Here is a link: http://www.trade-system.com/aberration.html
10-20% per trade or all trades together? Probably the logic of the system is self-reversing, so that you wouldn't expect many stops to ever trigger. You sure wouldn't last long taking 10-20% hits on a MA system, since they ususally have a win rate of only around 35%.
4 trades, all losers for -4.75 pts.
My trading is getting way too complicated. I'm watching too many things (different indicators), and have way too many lines on my charts. Tomorrow, it is back to price action, s/r lines, and a few ma's.
Net for the day: - 256.70
Net for the week: - 208.60
Net for the month: -604.70
My trading is getting way too complicated. I'm watching too many things (different indicators), and have way too many lines on my charts. Tomorrow, it is back to price action, s/r lines, and a few ma's.
Net for the day: - 256.70
Net for the week: - 208.60
Net for the month: -604.70