The EV transition is real

Coincidentally I also own a Kia ev6. In my rough estimate around 1/3 in the neighborhood drives electric. We do most of charging (90% estimate) with the solar panels on the house. The last time I visited an original gas station was almost a year ago

One of my first job interviews ever was with Saen Options at the energy trading desk. The manager told a bit how every piece of energy is traded around the world in packages in supply/demand, so it’s difficult I assume for anyone to know the direct source of the watts coming out of your plug.
 
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(Semafor)
April 29, 2024


The rapid growth of batteries

Battery capacity in the energy sector more than doubled in 2023. The International Energy Agency’s new report found that the cost of batteries fell 90% in the last 15 years, and that while in the past most batteries were produced for consumer electronics, over 90% of battery demand now comes from power companies. The head of the IEA said the combination of batteries and solar is already competitive with coal plants in India, and will soon be so in China. Battery installation must increase sixfold by 2030 to meet international targets, but the rate of growth is extraordinarily rapid.
 
Slow Learning Elf said:
I know ET is not into into nuance but this requires a nuanced answer.

First of all, the mix of energy sources depends on the location and the current demand (i.e. it's complicated). In case of the coastal states, both solar and wind are actually pretty large contributors, but the exact fraction depends on the time and grid demand. So if you charge your EV during the day or after work, you get somewhat different sources of energy.

Second of all, even hydro-carbon-based energy sources (e.g. oil/coal/natgas) tend to be cleaner when the energy is produced wholesale. Centralized power plants are generally more efficient and have better emissions controls than individual vehicles. This means that even if the electricity comes from coal or natural gas, the emissions per mile driven are still lower for electric vehicles compared to traditional cars.

The usual "EV vs ICE" environmental breakdowns include the average grid composition and other stuff like battery disposal/recycling, though at some average cost and local cost might be different.
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I have no dog in this fight but if you want to talk a nuanced answer:

1. Environmental pollution & cleanliness, lithium ion batteries are quite dirty and both their production and disposal are an environmental problem, much worse than ICE. Also, don't forget the environmental problem of producing solar panels, etc. And the rare earth elements needed in the energy chain....

2. Global warming, if the energy is produced by burning hydrocarbon, if you add up all the conversion losses: conversion of coal/oil/gas into electricity, transmission loss, battery charging loss, storage leakage, loss due to aging, electric motor efficiency... are likely worse or no better than converting crude oil to gasoline to burning gasoline to drive ICE. You cannot fight the second law of thermodynamics, the EV energy conversion chain has more steps than ICE. Case in point, just look at China's carbon footprint over time.

Unless the energy production comes from nuclear or renewable, you are not doing the global warming any favor by going EV, worse, you ended up polluting the environment more.
 
ironchef said:
2. Global warming, if the energy is produced by burning hydrocarbon, if you add up all the conversion losses: conversion of coal/oil/gas into electricity, transmission loss, battery charging loss, storage leakage, loss due to aging, electric motor efficiency... are likely worse or no better than converting crude oil to gasoline to burning gasoline to drive ICE. You cannot fight the second law of thermodynamics, the EV energy conversion chain has more steps than ICE. Case in point, just look at China's carbon footprint over time.

Unless the energy production comes from nuclear or renewable, you are not doing the global warming any favor by going EV, worse, you ended up polluting the environment more.
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A No-shit-Sherlock moment brought to you by Gen X, the last generation that used actual gray matter to figure shit out.

Oy.
 
ironchef said:
1. Environmental pollution & cleanliness, lithium ion batteries are quite dirty and both their production and disposal are an environmental problem, much worse than ICE. Also, don't forget the environmental problem of producing solar panels, etc. And the rare earth elements needed in the energy chain....
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Internet is an incredible invention, you can find anything there :) The analysis I was referring to was for the full life cycle. For example, this chart: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statis...s-emissions-of-a-mid-size-bev-and-ice-vehicle shows that EV is more efficient than ICE for the full life cycle (that includes vehicle manufacturing, batteries assembly, batteries minerals/mining, electricity production and (for ICE) fuel cycle well-to-wheel). And (shockingly) they discuss the role of the minerals in the supply chain, the full article is here: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

TLDR: even with all the complications, according to the analysis of people at IEA, electric vehicles are still cleaner.
 
Overnight said:
A No-shit-Sherlock moment
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His common sense arguments are wrong, actually. A quick google search shows plenty of reliable studies that prove that EVs are more efficient than ICE across the full life cycle and even assuming high-HC electricity mix (see above).

As a side note, "common sense" is rarely a substitute for scientific research or factual evidence. In many cases, common sense approaches/arguments are either rules of thumb (which are usually a result of various cognitive biases) or arguments based on personal knowledge or experience (which are, understandably, limited).
 
Slow Learning Elf said:
Internet is an incredible invention, you can find anything there :) The analysis I was referring to was for the full life cycle. For example, this chart: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statis...s-emissions-of-a-mid-size-bev-and-ice-vehicle shows that EV is more efficient than ICE for the full life cycle (that includes vehicle manufacturing, batteries assembly, batteries minerals/mining, electricity production and (for ICE) fuel cycle well-to-wheel). And (shockingly) they discuss the role of the minerals in the supply chain, the full article is here: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

TLDR: even with all the complications, according to the analysis of people at IEA, electric vehicles are still cleaner.
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Appreciate you taking the time to research and reply. :thumbsup:

A few comments on the links.

1. The error bar for EV is high with the top end equal to ICE. The devil is in the details and often the details can tip either way based on changing some assumptions.

2. For example, ICE outcome assumed current MPG. If you hybridized all ICE (extrapolate MPG improvement for ICE), half the yellow bar, ICE footprint is at least comparable to best case EV.

3. The second article only deals with
Report provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the complex links between these minerals and the prospects for a secure, rapid transformation of the energy sector.
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and not the environmental damages done by extraction and disposal.

A question for you sir, with such convictions, are you driving an EV?

I hedge, one of my cars, the one for daily use, is a plug in hybrid. :)
 
ironchef said:
Appreciate you taking the time to research and reply. :thumbsup:

A few comments on the links.

1. The error bar for EV is high with the top end equal to ICE. The devil is in the details and often the details can tip either way based on changing some assumptions.

2. For example, ICE outcome assumed current MPG. If you hybridized all ICE (extrapolate MPG improvement for ICE), half the yellow bar, ICE footprint is at least comparable to best case EV.

3. The second article only deals with and not the environmental damages done by extraction and disposal.

A question for you sir, with such convictions, are you driving an EV?

I hedge, one of my cars, the one for daily use, is a plug in hybrid. :)
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Since I am a speculator, I can speculate adding renewal fuel to gasoline and further reducing ICE carbon footprint to way below EV.
 
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