The EURO

[MrProfit]

Quote from eternalfuture:

Apparently, Ivanovich is in the minority.

It is not that bad to be the only EUR pesimist.
I'd say it's rather healthy as long as you don't go against the trend...


If the third leg correction extends its length to 1.618x the first, it would end at 1.2402. This is also the 38.2% retracement of the entire fall from 1.3668-1.1639. Interesting coincidence, eh?


Depending of what you call a correction.
You refer to a whole 2005 movement which I think is too short timeframe.
I'd say it's consolidating for another long impulse wave.

I think personally - it is going to consolidate in range of 1.20 - 1.24
Then we'll see a sharp and steep move upward to over the last top of 1.36
We are starting a new ride my friend.

 

[Kastro_316]

Quote from MrProfit:


I think personally - it is going to consolidate in range of 1.20 - 1.24
Then we'll see a sharp and steep move upward to over the last top of 1.36
We are starting a new ride my friend.

What would drive it that high? What are you basing this on?
-Kastro

 

[eternalfuture]

As Federal Reserve nears the end of its monetary tightening campaign, the interest rates euphoria will also end. Europe, however, still holds about once or twice more 25 bps interest rates increase(s), IMHO. Japan will also let go of the zero interest policy sometime this year (I don't know when exactly). So, USD may see some weakness too, especially against euro and jpy. Still, a move beyond 1.3668 is still out of my radar range. A move towards 1.2200-1.2400 or maybe even 1.2500-1.2700 has more potential, in my view.

What I meant by correction towards 1.2400 was the correction of the entire fall, which started at 1.3668. So, regardless of time factor (whether it's too short or too long), that is my first aim of the current move. Maybe euro will move straight there or it could reach it in two phases.

Whether the current rally is the beginning of a new impulse wave or a part of a big correction, the truth is out there and the market will be the jury.

Cheers!

 

[MrProfit]

300 MA is at ~1.2540

this is high probability target

 

[nlslax]

Good depth of knowledge here, thanks for the insight guys.

Got a noob question if anyone can take the time to respond.

I have been trading using simple t/a (10/20 SMA and macd). A friend recommended strongly I learn Fib through a mentor, and I see there have been a few references to it on this thread.

How important is Fib and what are some good sources of information to begin with?

Thanks Again.

 

[Ivanovich]

Almost got stopped out. Stop is sitting at 1.2115.

Look guys, I trend fade lots of times. Lots of times I'm right, too. Sometimes I get stomped. Getting stomped is to be expected, and is part of the game. I don't actually mind getting stomped, it shows I'm not perfect and prevents my ego from reigning in my decisions.

So if I get stomped (stopped) then so be it! Life goes on!

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from eternalfuture:

As Federal Reserve nears the end of its monetary tightening campaign, the interest rates euphoria will also end. Europe, however, still holds about once or twice more 25 bps interest rates increase(s),

Not sure I agree with you on the once or twice more, my friend. Euro zone inflation numbers fell today for a third straight month. The ECB rhetoric we keep hearing is largely inconsistant, and very few EU finance ministers are pleased with the prospect of tightening this soon. The market may believe it will happen, but the market often believes whatever the hell it wants to without regards to logic or rational thought, as we all know

 

[Ivanovich]

Hmmm...check out those divergences on the short and medium term charts.

 

[MrProfit]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Almost got stopped out. Stop is sitting at 1.2115.

Look guys, I trend fade lots of times. Lots of times I'm right, too. Sometimes I get stomped. Getting stomped is to be expected, and is part of the game. I don't actually mind getting stomped, it shows I'm not perfect and prevents my ego from reigning in my decisions.

So if I get stomped (stopped) then so be it! Life goes on!

Ivan, your strategy was good.
I would short it as well at that point.
The only thing that made me have opposite opinion is the begining of the year.
Normally a large spike as this would trigger a correction.
But it's January. January in FOREX is always wild.
That's why we have 1.2122 now.
Wild ride.

 

[Ivanovich]

Yep, I got stopped.

At least my EUR/AUD shorts are looking very healthy.

This EUR move up at this speed is just plain silly.