The ER2 Trading Journal

[trade_4_living]

Okay, this puzzle is solved.

I went back to early Oct with the 30 minutes chart. I see the WSAD was increasing, the price was increasing too, the money flow has been decreasing like this week. Eventually, it leads to the big fall for YM from 10430s to 10220s in a few days.

The Money Flow indicator is much better in predicting the future price movements.

http://tinypic.com/view/?pic=fk4ewl

 

[NihabaAshi]

Quote from trade_4_living:

This 10 day 30 minutes YM chart puzzles me. YM price went up from 10387 to 10560s. The Money flow indicator shows the money flow has been declining for the past week. The WSAD (Williams Accumulation/Distribution) shows steady increase in accumulation. Does it mean no real buyers and only short squeeze pushed the index higher?

I discussed something very important in the link below that explains why YM is doing what it is doing...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=57633

Sometimes indicators will miss what's obvious.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

 

[trade_4_living]

Thanks. Yes, I went back to the charts for the past several years and obviously this is the pattern for Oct/Nov. Big $$ institutions tanked it at the end of the Oct, loaded it up, unloaded them in the coming month or two and sell to short covering.

Looking at the 1 year or 2 years chart, the TA indicators point to buy entry level. Of course, if we look at the 1 month or 3 month's chart, we're at overbought condition, it attracts short. This short-term dip could provide a good buying opportunity.

For ER2, I feel 200 day SMA (just under 640) provided a nice support. I wish it could dip to that level before the next big rally happens. So far, it is trading above 50 day SMA.

Quote from NihabaAshi:

I discussed something very important in the link below that explains why YM is doing what it is doing...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=57633

Sometimes indicators will miss what's obvious.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

 

[trade_4_living]

Updated ER2 TA chart:

6- month chart with TA indicators:

http://tinypic.com/view/?pic=fk5hex

 

[trade_4_living]

ER2 - 1 year and 2 year chart, see the patterns on Oct/Nov/Dec:

http://tinypic.com/view/?pic=fk5mjo
http://tinypic.com/view/?pic=fk5mdf

Good night everyone!

Have a good trading day tomorrow!

 

[trade_4_living]

Going long here around support level 2.

 

[trade_4_living]

It is testing the low of yeserday again 656.50

 

[trade_4_living]

This is the big dip people have been waiting for. 653.50 now.

 

[trade_4_living]

Bought!

 

[trade_4_living]

Stop limit is set below today's low at 653.3. First target is the 50 day SMA at 655.3, next target is at 657 if it can break that 50 day SMA.