The eod-umb journal

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acronym

It has come to my attention, that im the only one that seems to know what im talking about, and given significant memory problems, i've concluded a journal may establish not only some discipline, but given my record keeping ability, may actually be the only way to record my prospective trade idea's and progress, should there in fact be any.
Interested only in eod futures &forex(not equity futures, to be sure), anything that looks good, and this journal while entirely for my record keeping/memory benifit, is open to comment and idea's, from all benevolent parties. Repeat , benevolent parties.
I am not an "elite trader", or even close, hence my trading idea's will be confined to this journal- mostly, coz i dont know what the hell people are on about in other thread's.

Do not expect live call's, do not expect brokerage statement's of p/l, do not expect backtesting, do not expect common sense, do not expect regular update's, this is my stuff, for my benifit, and any other poor sap's who can make sense of my gibberish and find it usefull.
Soon as i figure out how to do charts, im away. Blast, knew there'd be a snag.
It was going to be the "backward's talking yoda journal", till i figured that would get real old, real quick.
But this may still be employed, at random, just for the heck of it.

Do not expect excitement . This is the eod-umb journal, born out of frustration that bugger all people seem to trade in this obscure manner, perhaps because it's so bloody boring, i dont know. But my idea's may be recorded, that's good enough for me.
Im big on charts, not so great with pc's or crazy stuff like facts, fundamental's and whacky gear like that. Not my bag.
Ciao.
 
Liking the look of a few grains at the moment;
Dec wheat's just formed a nice three bar reversal, i like to see more bars in these before dropping buy stops in.
335 looks like the price id be happy with for a buy, will see what the price does over the next few days.

Oats and canola seem to be in similiar situations, but im a bit jittery about grains all round at the moment.
Hey, you know how they always tell newbs "um, maybe just trade a few grains, while your learning", heck, coffee, cotton, petroleums have been less volatile and more predicatable recently. Would that advice still apply?
Live cattle; currently looking at buys below 81,may be some value there.

liffe cocoa (march 05) is heading into serious long term resistance at 820, it doesnt seem to like going through it- and there's now 5 major lower weekly peaks on it. Dont know what that means, but its interesting. Watching cocoa closely.

Dead keen on a euro bund limit buy somewhere around121, hope i havent missed the boat on that one , just as likely to drift north from here though.
I just hate getting faked out, 30yr t-bonds similiar situationchart wise.

I really like the look of coffee to, i dont currently have a plan for it though.
Just a sneaky suspicion it might be setting up for a longside shooter, dont know why.

Lean hogs could well be worth dropping some sar type buy orders on to, certainly a regular "system" type trade for most people.
But, nothing leaping off the charts slapping me in the face, thats the time to be plotting and planning though.

Thought for the day; it's the trades you DONT take that determine success or failure, not the ones you do take.
 
In the event anyones wondering "whats the strategy", i dont have one.
Feel free to flick through this quasi/faux trading guide i wrote mostly for my amusement, when i realised i had no real idea what i was talking about.
 

Attachments

The 30yr bonds moved a little, (SEP) I dont see why it shouldnt challenge 114 again though.
Wheat /corn moved a little to, would like to see a bit more of a pattern .
Live cattle, theres a little peak (fractal) divergence between oct & dec contracts, (head shouldersVS lower low) i wonder if that's not a bit more bullish than i thought, i feel id be mad to not jump into dec lc right now. I guess im mad, i want better setup's dammit.

My idea of imposing a convoluted price bar structure, nearly impossible to meet, to enter trades has some drawbacks.
"Ahh, thats a nice 4 bar reversal fake out;I'll wait for another bar, to make sure it's not the 5 bar continuation-fakeout...maybe its really true saddle congestion, way outside range price, thats usually bullish...........s###t, it was just a reversal after all,#%&***!. "

Thought for the day; the mind is your worst enemy in trading. It must be destroyed at all cost's.
 
Looks like the bund & 30 yr T's were an at market entry after all, never came close to proposed limit levels.
Others still looking ok, i guess, but soys look better for upside trades out of the grains, opinions highly changeable all round .
A lot of heavy price divergence across the board, its ridiculous- Spi 200, dax, petroleums, oj , grains, even currencies are arcing away , all well and good, just dont want to be throwing any hail mary reversal's to begin with, if possible.
Looks like cocoa (liffe and us) decided it likes those resistance levels after all,
big time.
But, it all good.

Im not into betting as such, but if i were , i would do this:(all with roughly 1&1/2 price bar stop loss, as per document)
Buy corn, if it opens below current range on monday.
Wide bracket feeder cattle;
buy silver just above thursdays range, sl below current bar, with potential for a sar;
And pop a buy stop on soybeans, just for the heck of it.

These could do anything, im hoping murphys law will make these trade ideas into complete duds , and my judgement lambasted, i can sneak in and get some good trades when the market thinks im scratching my head, wondering how they could'a gone south.

It might work!:)
 
Bund and 30yr tbonds racing away, and the lean hogs buy stop turned out to be a good idea.
Of the bet types, it appears silver, f cattle and soybean wouldnt have been hit, leaving a corn long potentially in the market, on the gap. Nice place for a long, but im pretty stoked not to have any grains right now.
But, cotton and soy have now formed seriously parabolic curves on their down moves, i guess ill have to learn options real quick, a lot of volatility right now making stop setting unsettling.
Will keep looking for opportunites, they are always there, it's just a matter of seeing them in clear light.

:)
 
Hm, 30yr bonds, bund and lean hogs were quite good, it appears i was right to be looking at wheat and live cattle for reversal trades.
I jotted this down on my notepad for gold on the 10th aug, " looking bullish still, interested in sells off higher bars."
So i seem to be finding good areas, execution and confidence of entries is poor to put it mildly.

Cotton looks the pick of the bunch right now, ill certainly wait to see where it opens though.


:)
 
Have been taking a break from serious charting, though the strike rate of non serious charting remains consistently good.
I could swear i must be asleep most of the time, i jot down things im looking for, see no brainer trades, and then talk myself out of . Oh well, its an ongoing process.
Rome wasnt built in a day....fine wine cant be rushed......cant make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

:cool:
 
It's true , strange things happen. But you heard it here first, us dollar index breaks 90 (dec) within a month and a half. Cant argue with momentum, people. I could be wrong.


Post from moneytec , 19/8 . similiar ideas on gold.
Assessment good, everything else poor.
Have been really surprised by the meat complex since initial veiws, i didnt suspect theyd go quite that far, or as quickly.
Still looking for grains to base out, may be a week or two to a legitimate low, but will see what happens.
 
Liking the look of cocoa, there seems to be a little divergence up, selling pressure may be running low.

Swiss franc is a possible sleeper buy, and the indices are low enough too-think id look at the ftse or dax before the dow though, theyve maintained a lot more strength chart wise.

Managed to completely miss cotton, coffee, hogs cattle, and just in the last week (trading days), a stack of add-on type trades in gold, silver, cotton, tonnes of stuff, despite having the orders pencilled in.




:mad:
 
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