Quote from Brendan R:
A political plague
Mark Dampier Fund Focus - 15-Jan-2009
I have always thought it was prudent to be politically neutral when communicating with clients but this has become increasingly difficult in the last few years.
Politicians are blaming the mess we are now in on the bankers, yet, as Cazenove's Richard Jeffrey said recently, this is akin to blaming your children for being sick when you let them loose in the tuck shop with loads of cash. If you give bankers loads of money, they are going to spend it. In my view, investment and politics are more closely linked than ever before.
I believe this Government has systematically wrecked our economy over the last 10 years. It sold half our gold reserves at around $250 an ounce and now the price is over $850. It has brought in taxes on pensions, raised taxes through complicated means so as to hide them and weakened regulation of the bank system.
Fatally, it not only spent the surplus money we had in the good times but also borrowed more. It has used some of this money to expand our bloated public sector instead of introducing the dramatic cuts and reforms it needed. The Opposition parties have not been much better, seeming too scared to say anything that might offend the public sector or anyone else. They had goalposts wider than the Grand Canyon and failed to score.
The economy is in a mess and politicians of all parties are blaming everyone except the people responsible - themselves. Is it any wonder I am angry? I am sure most of you are too.
The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. As I have said previously in this column, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust, written in 2005.
US house prices are likely to fall by another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making a total fall of at least 40 per cent. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. Our housing market has fallen by about 16 per cent, so there is long way to go, especially considering an almost guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment. Anyone predicting a modest recovery in 2009 is fooling themselves.
The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals, which makes sense since most people cannot buy a house unless they are first granted a mortgage. The graph above, which pushes mortgage approval data forward seven months, reinforces my point. My thanks to M&G for this data. I believe we can expect at least a 20 per cent fall this year and the market is not likely to hit bottom until late 2010 at the earliest. Millions of people in negative equity will cause a drag on the economy.
What solutions do our politicians have for our flagging economy? Labour wants us to spend more in the shops but a VAT cut that reduces prices by 2.13 per cent is far too small, especially as shops are slashing prices and we know huge tax rises will come within two years.
The Tories' master plan is a tax break on savings - although not for everybody - but perhaps the irony is lost on them that if everyone now starts saving, the recession will be even worse.
God save us from the politicians. As Ronald Reagan said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
We need a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefit systems, with a huge cutting back of the public sector, but that would take hard work and political courage and might be difficult to sell to the public. I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for some time. Next week, I will return to funds that I hope might prosper over the next few years, despite the politicians.
Mark Dampier is head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown
by the way, Sterling is printing 1.425, highway to hell