Russia needs the money from its energy exports more than ever, given the havoc sanctions have wreaked on others parts of its economy. Analysts say Russian GDP could shrink by about a fifth this year. And it couldn't easily sell natural gas to other countries, such as China, because the pipeline infrastructure doesn't yet exist.
Moscow's decision to publicly threaten to turn off the taps could backfire by adding ever greater urgency to efforts to break Europe's addiction to Russian energy. EU officials have already set a target of cutting Russian gas use by 66% this year. Germany is building terminals to import liquefied natural gas, US shipments are being ramped up, and Europe is accelerating renewable energy projects.
Given the EU's ambition to replace a majority of Russian imports with alternative suppliers by the end of the year, it seems likely that most if not all European buyers will opt not to renew supply deals.
Europe's gradual shift away from Russia's energy supplies is structural, and will not be reversed.