THE END GAME 2012/13 - Ex Goldman Star - Trading Will Be Banned

You can't ban short futures without banning long futures because there would be no-one to take the other side of the trade. Its not like shares where you buy an asset.
 
Sure you can. They could let hedgers sell against.

Quote from Runningbear:

You can't ban short futures without banning long futures because there would be no-one to take the other side of the trade. Its not like shares where you buy an asset.
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Quote from THE-BEAKER:

“The End Game” – Global Macro Investor, May 2012
Posted on June 1, 2012

Analysis by Raoul Pal – Global Macro Investor:

“The world has no engine of growth with most of the G20 countries approaching stall speed at the same time. The Western World is about to enter its second recession in an ongoing depression…”

“Fact: This will be the lowest cyclical peak in GDP growth in G7 history. These are the weakest ever foundations on which to enter a recession.”

“The ten largest debtor nations on earth have total debts of over 300% of World GDP.”

Pal warnings:

With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.

It is the big RESET.

More…:

Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
The whole bond market will be dead.
Short selling on bonds – banned
Short selling stocks – banned
CDS – banned
Short futures – banned
Put options – banned

All that is left is the Dollar and Gold

Summary…:

We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.

Raoul Pal, 22 years experience in global finance – founder of Global Macro Investors. Also previous affiliation with GLG Global Macro Fund – London and with Goldman Sachs’ hedge fund business – equities and equities derivatives.http://leviticus25plan.org/2012/06/the-end-game-global-macro-investor-may-2012/
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One key factor i use in identifying people who don't know much is when they site the notional value of total derivatives. The reason? Derivatives are firstly a ZERO SUM GAME and secondly mentioning the notional value is almost irrelevant.

For the first point, if someone loses x amount in derivatives then someone else makes x amount in derivatives.

Secondly, what's the point in mentioning the notional value? If i sell a 100 futures contracts in the Euro and at the same time buy the equivalent amount in the interbank FX dealers market, because i noticed a .0001 penny discrepency in price and my way to make money is arbritage, then the notional value of the derivatives i've entered to may be 7 or 8 figures, but my actually risk is as close to zero as you can get. Arbitrage traders find extremely small discrepencies in price and then take neutral positions in order to take advantage. But since the discrepency is so small, they are forced to take absolutely massive positions. But there is almost zero risk. How does counting the notional value of such positions and then comparing it to income, make any sense whatsoever?

edit: i'm sorry, on re-reading the post, he actually used DEBT as collateral for the notional value of derivatives, not income or assets. This makes it even more nonsensicle.
 
1. Debts can be repudiated or settled for fractions, lessening the impact.

2. Fiat currency, one of the greatest and most successful inventions of mankind. It has allowed undreamed of growth and prosperity for billions.

Fiat currencies require a reset every now and then, this is one of those times.

Since Fiat currencies are notional (or paper) the reset can be quickly accomplished.

Start the presses on the new Dollar.

3. 100% of the countries on earth use Fiat currencies, and will continue to do so.

4. Economic disaster does not equate to social breakdown. Countries can withstand 25% unemployment.

So we are in for a period of dislocation, turmoil, false prophets, winners and losers will surface, then dawn comes for the next day.

in the meantime , strap in and wear a helmet.

damn, i luv forex..........:)

s
 
Quote from plyka:

Arbitrage traders find extremely small discrepencies in price and then take neutral positions in order to take advantage. But since the discrepency is so small, they are forced to take absolutely massive positions. But there is almost zero risk.
More...


Wasn't LTCM an arbitrage operation?
Or were they doing different type arbitrage?
 
Quote from shopster:

1. Debts can be repudiated or settled for fractions, lessening the impact.

2. Fiat currency, one of the greatest and most successful inventions of mankind. It has allowed undreamed of growth and prosperity for billions.

Fiat currencies require a reset every now and then, this is one of those times.

Since Fiat currencies are notional (or paper) the reset can be quickly accomplished.

Start the presses on the new Dollar.

3. 100% of the countries on earth use Fiat currencies, and will continue to do so.

4. Economic disaster does not equate to social breakdown. Countries can withstand 25% unemployment.

So we are in for a period of dislocation, turmoil, false prophets, winners and losers will surface, then dawn comes for the next day.

in the meantime , strap in and wear a helmet.

damn, i luv forex..........:)

s
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What happens with my mortgage? :D
 
Quote from clightmarathon:

Wasn't LTCM an arbitrage operation?
Or were they doing different type arbitrage?
More...

they had $3B of borrowed money from the wall street bankstas of starting capital and were levered 100:1

they lost 500M in one day.

a 3% move in the opposite direction and these clowns were toast.

a bunch of dumb ass quants.

s


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Quote from shopster:

they had $3B of borrowed money from the wall street bankstas of starting capital and were levered 100:1

they lost 500M in one day.

a 3% move in the opposite direction and these clowns were toast.

a bunch of dumb ass quants.

s


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Yeah. I read the book "When genius failed". For a while you think what you are doing is risk free, but then ....

Btw: About the reset: Should I get more loan then ?? :D
 
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