The Elliott Wave haunts me tonight

[Landis82]

Quote from daveb351:

See SPX attachment:

According to Elliott wave 3 cannot be the shortest. W3? is shortest at 265.98. So W1 = 537.80(W1?+W3?) and W3 at least has to equal W1 or larger...this market is going to where no market has gone before???

Or Elliott theory is sh...just a theory.

No, I think you have Wave 1 labeled wrong.
It can't be 537.80

This last sequence which started from the 1060.72 low in August of 2004 is subdividing with a 1,2 ( July and Oct. of 2005 ) and another (1), (2) . . . which is in May and June of 2006. Wave (3) of a smalled degree ended in Feb. 2007 with Wave (4) being the dramatic decline into the end of Feb/early March.

We are currently in the iii of Wave (5) of the bigger Wave 3.
Thus, we have a series of fours/fives to do in order to finish this bigger Wave 3 off.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

On a larger degree basis, I calculate the following:
( don't take the parenthesis literallly )


I have Wave 1 = 395 points ( 768 - 1163 )

Multiplying Wave (1) x 1.382 = 545 points for Wave (3) length.

Add 545 to Wave 2 low at 1053 ( August/Sept of 2004 ) and you obtain a Wave (3) target that terminates at:

1608

 

[stock_trad3r]

It is guaranteed that any discussion on elliot waves will have no consensus.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from nkhoi:

sound pretty subjective to me. Anyway I frequently receive newsletters from EWI run by R. Prechter and they had been calling for the 'big one' forever thus that is how I perceive EW prediction. If you are more adept at EW than him then my hat is off to you, peace.

The newsletters that Robert Prechter puts out are of such long-wave duration that they are literally useless to a trader and shouldn't really be even subjected to a monthly issue.

If you have ever subscribed to the work that his in-house S&P technician does, you will find that his opinion of the market is often counter to what Prechter ( his employer ) is saying in his monthly newsletter.

In any event, I have found that the people that tend to throw pot-shots at Elliott Wave are those people that are too lazy to even begin to understand how it works. They might subscribe to an Elliott Wave charting service, or take a trial monthly newsletter, but at the end of the day they are far too LAZY to actually take the time to learn about wave structure, the counts, the fibonacci retracements, the corrective sequences, etc.

Much can be said of people that think that technical analysis and using some basic technical tools is like reading tea leaves.

The bottomline is that I have been trading since 1980, and was fortunate to trade for a legendary commodity pool operator back in NYC who also used Elliott Wave. I have found value in Elliott Wave, just as I have found value in using 3 specific moving averages, fib retracements, measured-moves, etc.

In other words, I do not soley use Elliott Wave all by itself.
It is one of several technical tools that I use.

Good Luck to all.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

It is guaranteed that any discussion on elliot waves will have no consensus.

And that is usually the case because the people that are involved in the discussion come from various knowledge bases.

Just think what it would be like to try and convey a simple calculus problem to a classroom that included a 4th grader, an 8th grader, a 12 grader, a college grad, and a Phd student.

Much can be said when a group of people get together to discuss Elliott Wave. More often than not, most of these people do not even understand the most basic tenets of the theory, such as the Rule of Alternation ( Wave 2 vs Wave 4 corrections ).

Hell, most people here on ET don't even understand fibonacci ratios and retracements, so what do you expect?

A methodology is only as good as the understanding of its most basic principles.

 

[Gaucho MM1]

Quote from Landis82:

And that is usually the case because the people that are involved in the discussion come from various knowledge bases.

Just think what it would be like to try and convey a simple calculus problem to a classroom that included a 4th grader, an 8th grader, a 12 grader, a college grad, and a Phd student.

Much can be said when a group of people get together to discuss Elliott Wave. More often than not, most of these people do not even understand the most basic tenets of the theory, such as the Rule of Alternation ( Wave 2 vs Wave 4 corrections ).

Hell, most people here on ET don't even understand fibonacci ratios and retracements, so what do you expect?

A methodology is only as good as the understanding of its most basic principles.

you may also find the biggest challenge is that most players come to the table with their bias already set..........dpending on the degree of trend they attack their hypothesis from.........call it emotional logic or ego..........that, first governs, the agenda to prove a case............that then rules the wave labelling.........

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from Landis82:

..In any event, I have found that the people that tend to throw pot-shots at Elliott Wave are those people that are too lazy to even begin to understand how it works. They might subscribe to an Elliott Wave charting service, or take a trial monthly newsletter, but at the end of the day they are far too LAZY to actually take the time to learn about wave structure, the counts, the fibonacci retracements, the corrective sequences, etc.
..
Good Luck to all.

Quote from Landis82:

No, I think you have Wave 1 labeled wrong.
It can't be 537.80

..

I see you have started a more fruitful discussion with other EW practitioner, good luck to you too.

 

[Landis82]

Today is also a weekly close suggesting if a close is render today below the 1505.62 which has a 80 percent probability that a two three week sidewise pattern with a downward bias will unfold.

Expect the market to open higher and be range bound between the 1495.55 and 1489.30 levels. There is a 60 percent probability for a higher close today.

See chart below . . .