The Electric Day Trader and Ruin. How probability oppposes short-term investors.

most academic no have properly capitlize to trade, that's why angry at good trader

edge is estimate
probability is estimate

estimate can often make big mistake

trader should have probability in toolbox, some technical analysis too, know and respect the random walk, but also the momentum, and a mean reversion

trade in direction of trend, big moving average, this drive economic fundamental
 
Quote from Jander:

lol, are you serious?

Almost every one of the few trades that actually made money in the past year have a drawdown far in excess of the eventual profit. I find it hard to believe you make a living off the $50 per month from your 2 subscribers, who took the time to completely bash your 'system' in their reviews..

This comment from one of the people tracking you says it all:

Comments

Vendor said "$8,500,000 is the price tag for the chartscript in wealth-lab for both the QID/QLD and the SDS/SSO versions". The last time I checked the latter was -29.5% on an annualized basis so I presume he means Zimbabwe dollars and not USD! Maybe if he spent less time knocking other vastly more popular systems and concentrated on refining his own efforts then the results might improve?
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I have an annualized 28.5% return, which beats every single mutual fund in the country in that time period, and never had a day where I closed below my starting capital. That means that poster has no clue what he's talking about, and you obviously don't know how to analyze a system. You can look up mutual funds at your broker if you want to verify that claim. There's one long short bond arb fund that had greater than 20% APR in the last 3 years.
 
Instinct, emotion, character and personality. Most people have a hard time controlling themselves even in normal day to day life, whatever normal may be. Put people into the trading arena and things really start to go heywire. A good trader can stay on top of thier urges, so to speak, but no man alive can totally eradicate what has been in the making since the primeordial soup sloshed around our planet.

Day Trading For Dummies.

In what sense and context though?



Dackster.
 
Quote from Ms Varima-Garch:

if have no need probability and the chart, but close information also good
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Time is against you, and your instincts, it's a constant battle that can't be numerated and mechanised. It's unfortunate, but that's just the way it is, Ms V-G.



Dackster.
 
Quote from Ms Varima-Garch:

most academic no have properly capitlize to trade, that's why angry at good trader
edge is estimate
probability is estimate
estimate can often make big mistake
trader should have probability in toolbox, some technical analysis too, know and respect the random walk, but also the momentum, and a mean reversion
trade in direction of trend, big moving average, this drive economic fundamental
More...

Academics aren't suppose to trade they are suppose to research and understand environments (building blocks that create these environments). They are simply too lazy to do this.
An edge can be fixed.
Probability is always an estimate.
A trader doesn't need probability but must have patience and common sense.
I fully respect Random walk but there is a way to see the embedded consistency in it.
Mean revision is closer to a statistical outcome than a natural outcome and must be used accordingly in a static environment.
Momentum is a powerful tool but it's useless if misunderstood or not read correctly in a fixed environment.
Trends are only useful if one can define them specifically inside THEIR OWN trading environment.
Moving averages, though useful on static charts are less useful on fixed charts.
 
Quote from Dackster:

Instinct, emotion, character and personality. Most people have a hard time controlling themselves even in normal day to day life, whatever normal may be. Put people into the trading arena and things really start to go heywire. A good trader can stay on top of thier urges, so to speak, but no man alive can totally eradicate what has been in the making since the primeordial soup sloshed around our planet.
Day Trading For Dummies.
In what sense and context though?
Dackster.
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Great point. This is why the most consistent systems out there take the "thought" process out of the equation.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

I have an annualized 28.5% return, which beats every single mutual fund in the country in that time period, and never had a day where I closed below my starting capital. That means that poster has no clue what he's talking about, and you obviously don't know how to analyze a system. You can look up mutual funds at your broker if you want to verify that claim. There's one long short bond arb fund that had greater than 20% APR in the last 3 years.
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Wow. If true, that is seriously spectacular. You never had a single day where you lost any capital allocated for that day from the time you started trading until close? Even in the last year?

And your annualized return of 28.5% is for how long of a time period? As you know, annualized simply means extrapolated to an average over a yearly window.

I've seen many, many, MANY funds that have had a 48% return one year, and a negative 52% return the next - this is especially true of some tech and high beta 'focus' funds.

Are you returns audited by any credible agency?
 
Quote from Dackster:

Time is against you, and your instincts, it's a constant battle that can't be numerated and mechanised. It's unfortunate, but that's just the way it is, Ms V-G.
Dackster.
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Time's only relavance to consistent trading is "the period one chooses to apply his proven edge to price movement".

Numerated, no because the spam of the cycles that make up price movement aren't EVER consistent but mechanised, yes because the the building blocks that make up those cyclic moves are perfectly consistent.
 
andrew lo is academic and the successful trader
traders do need probability estimates, at least i think so, i make look at hoadley probability calculator, for free, this predict range, but not direction, true

intraday, 1-point trade on the es is very high probability, but not 7 point trade

intraweek, 10-point trade on es is high probability, but not 30 point trade
 
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