The Edge defined

Quote from steve46:

Yes, you are "missing something". It is the same "something" that I pointed out a while back in the context of the "ES" journal (Buy1Sell2). Unfortunately neither you nor B1S2 "got it" then and apparently you still do not get the point.

The comment about proper testing and evaluation of a system to determine an edge is THE POINT. Without that, you certainly can make money, and you may THINK you have the ability to make more than you lose, UNTIL mysteriously it all closes down on you. THAT is the difference between having an edge, and simply being the beneficiary of random good luck. When one runs out (luck) you don't get any advance warning. When an edge stops working, IF you know how to test, you DO get an advance warning.

Now I am guessing you won't like what you have read. You were resistant to it back then, and B1S2 decided to ask me not to post. No problem. But if you ask as you did. I have to say. Its only a matter of time till you get a real demo of that underlying principle. When that happens, will your "ability" have changed? Probably not. It will probably be just an example of "no edge" at work.

Steve
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Steve, I am not going to step to the level of your nastiness to most on ET, that's your style, but will tell you why I got pissed at you, you offered something that you don't use anymore, it's like throwing a dog a bone, I don't welcome that.

I've been doing business for quite a while to understand that an edge in its simplistic form is an ability to prevail, you can, others have and failed, put a math formula on any probability, but would that make your edge more risk free - maybe.

BTW ES Journal is not my journal, I post there freely and do not disclose my daily activity, so how can you make out whether I even have an edge, it's impossible to tell, so nothing to comment upon. I know how B1S2 does it and it's based on many years of experience and I BELIEVE it to be true, hence the interest in longer TF divergences, etc.

Sorry I have no more time at the mo to elaborate, just a summary. Excuse possible typos.
 
Quote from inCom:

tireq & steve46,

Knowing that I have a system with statistical edge or not, made no difference to me.

I hope you are not both speaking theoretically, but formerly I used to think like you that "if you have a statistical edge you know why you're starting to lose money" but, sadly, after having tried several systems live, some of them statistically tested and some not, I scientifically concluded that the result is pretty much the same (i.e., NO statistical difference): when they stop working you start to lose money :)

GS
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Hi InCom,

I commend your scientific appraoch very much.

Looks like Gallacher did a very similar experiment in "The Options Edge".

:)
 
Quote from tireg:

. There's lots of these edges around...just don't expect to find them in the o, h,l, c data."
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Great post. But most of what we have is OHLC data..? Do you recommend doing strategies not based on price, but on fundamentals - as you did with fund inflows/outflows?

If so, then you are saying there are no edges in technical analysis (as all indicators come from OHLC and V).
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Hi InCom,

I commend your scientific appraoch very much.

Looks like Gallacher did a very similar experiment in "The Options Edge".

:)
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:)
 
Quote from romik:

Steve, I am not going to step to the level of your nastiness to most on ET, that's your style, but will tell you why I got pissed at you, you offered something that you don't use anymore, it's like throwing a dog a bone, I don't welcome that.

I've been doing business for quite a while to understand that an edge in its simplistic form is an ability to prevail, you can, others have and failed, put a math formula on any probability, but would that make your edge more risk free - maybe.

BTW ES Journal is not my journal, I post there freely and do not disclose my daily activity, so how can you make out whether I even have an edge, it's impossible to tell, so nothing to comment upon. I know how B1S2 does it and it's based on many years of experience and I BELIEVE it to be true, hence the interest in longer TF divergences, etc.

Sorry I have no more time at the mo to elaborate, just a summary. Excuse possible typos.
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If you had some balls, you would just say "hey you're right"

but you don't

You dont have time to elaborate. Elaborate what?

What I posted was not at all "nasty" it was however uncomfortable for you because it is true.

Your damn right I don't post what took me years to learn. Also I don't post my bank account numbers and I don't ask people to come and take my automobile or live in my house. Like any hardworking person I draw a line where I think I have to. Now here comes the nasty part (cover your eyes)

IF you want me to GIVE you the product of my hard work, you have a long wait ahead of you for sure. My suggestion is read the posts, think for a moment, and get up off your ass. Do the work and get there yourself.

You're welcome
Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

If you had some balls, you would just say "hey you're right"

but you don't

You dont have time to elaborate. Elaborate what?

What I posted was not at all "nasty" it was however uncomfortable for you because it is true.

Your damn right I don't post what took me years to learn. Also I don't post my bank account numbers and I don't ask people to come and take my automobile or live in my house. Like any hardworking person I draw a line where I think I have to. Now here comes the nasty part (cover your eyes)

IF you want me to GIVE you the product of my hard work, you have a long wait ahead of you for sure. My suggestion is read the posts, think for a moment, and get up off your ass. Do the work and get there yourself.

You're welcome
Steve
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Steve, you are right
 
Quote from steve46:

I can see that you'll do whatever it takes to prove me wrong :p
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Steve, I am a hard working guy, I ran a very popular restaurant for many years, that is not an easy task. I had an edge, because I sustained profitability year after year, when some other new venture opened and closed shop after 1-2 years of operations. A huge chunk that benefited staying profitable was intuition based on top of all the previously gained experience. Now there were times when no matter what I did, there simply weren't enough "bums on seats" - that was an inevitable temporary scenario, no risk calculation could prevent that from happening.

I don't really know what is the point of all the above, you are mistaken in your evaluation of me. An edge to me is a very personal set of rules, which for sure will be different to yours and some other guy, but essentially an edge is the ability to make more than lose, some would want it coded and some do not need to.
 
Quote from tireg:

Acrary in the end discovered that strategy played a much larger part b/c he spent most of his later years finding and exploiting edges.
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Quote from tireg:

As retired EliteTrader forum poster Acrary has shown, ...
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Obviously you have had a very Independent and Logical thinking in this challenging trading field, particularly when learning the teaching and knowledge that are Freely available on the Net from some Truly experienced traders you Know well. :)
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Obviously you have had a very Independent and Logical thinking in this challenging trading field, particularly when learning the teaching and knowledge that are Freely available on the Net from some Truly experienced traders you Know well. :)
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Tongue in cheek or not, I've found Acrary's threads most helpful in my own progress. While at first I did not completely appreciate or understand the concepts he wrote about, like many are demonstrating in their posts here, over time and experience and necessity these concepts have been made clear to me. I commend his choice of open sharing and genuine help to others instead of selecting the path of secrecy and merely wished to make my own contribution along those lines.
 
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