The economy is still very strong. No bear market or recession symptoms

BONECRUSHER said:
To counter what you've stated:

-margin debt in stock market at all time high
-gold is in a 7 year bear market
-bitcoin also in a bear market
I agree that what you've stated may help in the short term, but my initial opinion was based on the next ten years...how do you argue the long term?
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piezoe said:
Or why. If it's both, and it is, then the next ten years may be just like the last ten, or they may be different. Human nature, which is is manifest in vanity, greed, and instinct, changes imperceptibly slowly in comparison to a a human lifetime. Therefore, the future will rhyme with the past, and the past will be prologue for the future.
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debt always goes up... so what.
gold is flat, bitcoin yes in a bear... point is the public is sucked into these things.

so next 10 years nobody knows.. but.

- we have a potus that is the most biz savvy, for 6.5 more years;
- and bull market doesn't end this way, with the public still out of it;
 
dozu888 said:
we have a potus that is the most biz savvy, for 6.5 more years;
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I'd have to disagree with that. I don't see any evidence for that in his six bankruptcies and major judgements against him. A biz savvy person won't get themselves involved in over 4000 lawsuits. The only thing that I can give him credit for is being quite successful at money laundering for Russian oligarchs without, so far, getting caught. I don't think he has been in office long enough to get much of a handle on what the final damage will be. So far he has managed to start a trade war, get gas prices moving up, and create chaos in airports, and now, within the immigration system. He a total disaster from what I see. If he is so great, why do the people around him keep resigning and calling him an "idiot." Is he brilliant and all the others are idiots, or is it the other way around?
 
piezoe said:
I'd have to disagree with that. I don't see any evidence for that in his six bankruptcies and major judgements against him. A biz savvy person won't get themselves involved in over 4000 lawsuits. The only thing that I can give him credit for is being quite successful at money laundering for Russian oligarchs without, so far, getting caught. I don't think he has been in office long enough to get much of a handle on what the final damage will be. So far he has managed to start a trade war, get gas prices moving up, and create chaos in airports, and now, within the immigration system. He a total disaster from what I see. If he is so great, why do the people around him keep resigning and calling him an "idiot." Is he brilliant and all the others are idiots, or is it the other way around?
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ugh it's you again...
 
Windlesham1 said:
Debt is not a problem until it's a problem. Argentina was once the world's 2nd largest economy, and chief exporter of covfefe(sic)
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apples and blackberries.

debt was already a problem in 2008... the entire world foot the bill because we are the reserve currency... key word, reserve currency.

covfefe doesn't cut it.... reserve currency does.
 
Raising the cost of the reserve currency can be a problem to those who borrowed in reserve currency. Floating rate deals and being effectively short the spread of USD/local has in the past
hurt local currencies and caused fire sale/ capital flight from local equities/assets.
Seems to me that Powell is most responsible for this rather than trade slapping and pinching.......(wars?)
https://www.investing.com/indices/msci-intl-em-currency

That was a huge run 2016/2017...all time highs here and EM stocks were hot as well so......look at this and most grains, metals, and , even major pairs vs. USD are weak.

I agree , no recession on horizon, US is winning? any trade issue but there could be some gray swan type events from EM stress.
So, do pro portfolio equity allocators with flexibility adjust the US stocks/Em stocks ratio and push US indices to all time highs this summer? Should you?
 
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it's always something left field -the yield curve has been a predictor in the past, but nobody could even spell sub prime in the early 2000s . You cannot believe how stupid the institutions are, until you see their portfolios -Muppetry and debt.
 
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