The economy is still very strong. No bear market or recession symptoms

BONECRUSHER said:
I think it's funny when people say the economy is good so no bear market on the way. It wasn't that many years ago when the economy sucked, but the market did well anyway(QE)...people said back then the economy and the market don't have anything to do with each other. So, which is it people?:rolleyes:
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both.
 
Dump's tariffs have only just started so don't be too optimistic.
Even friendly Canada is furious with him and is retaliating. The EU, China etc are also drawing up lists to put tariffs on US goods. The Russians must be overjoyed at his messing up.
The US is finished being no 1 economic power. Shouldn't have wasted all those trillions blasting away in the Middle East. Achieved nothing anyway.
 
SteveH said:
Something just happens and it's over. Many people who trade fully recognized the dotcom and r/e bubbles but also knew that it was not financially practical to bet on its end.

We're in another one. Signs are all there. A lot of people in their 20's and 30's are collectivelly going to have 100's of billions lost in the decentralized Ponzi scheme known as crypto currency. Look at the coinmarketcap dot com site and realize most of those are going to zero when the bubble ends.

And I`ve said this over and over again, look at Ross Cameron's "Warrior Trading" on YouTube. He's pulling in a MINIMUM of $600 per person (most spend $3000-5000 before they wise-up) over several months in "educational material" from 1000's of people all over the world based off of a SIMPLE breakout system, making millions for himself hand over fist. You can only do that in raging bubble markets. It probably doesn't end well for ole Ross. The SEC takes a dim view of front-running and real-time trade calls without having a Series 7 or CTA certification. These characters don't do that as it opens them up to litigation.

There was an article this past week that said over 70% of Silicon Valley start-ups are going bankrupt, not seen since the dotcom.

Crazy things going on... see as many theater movies as you want for only $9.95 a month with MoviePass?

All those folks under 40 who didn't get heavily damaged financially from the last 2 big bubbles. Now they're all over the world, trading from their smart phones, a 1000 here, a 1000 there, thinking that day and swing trading are now a natural part of their daily lives. That's not normal thinking. It adds up.

You'll see a lot of articles sayimg that "this time is different". No, really, it's not.

Way too many mega-mergers going on. If things are going so great then why are companies buying each other out instead of growing organically? Greed and fear.
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+1 .. Spot on! ..... Just waiting for Lebron to come out and endorse TD Ameritrade or Etrade.... we are short to the door on that one, imo.
 
Humpy said:
Dump's tariffs have only just started so don't be too optimistic.
Even friendly Canada is furious with him and is retaliating. The EU, China etc are also drawing up lists to put tariffs on US goods. The Russians must be overjoyed at his messing up.
The US is finished being no 1 economic power. Shouldn't have wasted all those trillions blasting away in the Middle East. Achieved nothing anyway.
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I concur. However, the trillions spent on wars half way around the globe is a waste (in fact a crime) only from the perspective of the people / taxpayers; it's not a waste from the Establishment's perspective, as massive profits from narcotics operations alone made the spending and deaths of US soldiers worthwhile.
 
dozu888 said:
why not.
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I'll tell you why not. Just like many have said before on this site...DEBT DEBT DEBT! It is common for the U.S. to have recessions or some kind of crisis every five to 10 years (economic cycle or government screw up, you choose)...the debt will exacerbate the "BUST" into something just as bad as 2008 or worse. This bull market is going on 10 years next year...one of our longest. Do you think there's no end to this market melt up? What happens when corporate buybacks dry up or servicing our debt becomes problematic as rates rise?

Hypothetical: Can I borrow 100k from you? I promise I will put it somewhere safe...the stock market...that should put you at ease for getting paid back, right? I might add that I owe 300k on my credit cards and second mortgage as well! Is everything still O.K. so far? Are you still going to give me the loan? Does lots of DEBT make any difference at all?

Some people believe the government can just print money forever and our markets and economies will be just fine. The problem is the markets themselves will at some point call BULLSHIT and cause the crisis...probably a credit or currency crises. Sure, at first the safe haven will be the U.S. dollar, but eventually...

Example of excess in our economy: I have a piece of cardboard worth apparently 15k. It's a gem-mint 10 Jerry Rice 1986 rookie card that I bought for $4 in 1987 and it's listed on the internet for over 15k. I find that ridiculous, but it gets worse...I know someone who wants to borrow from their credit card to pay for it. I wouldn't doubt they've bought bitcoin this way as well.:rolleyes:
 
BONECRUSHER said:
I'll tell you why not. Just like many have said before on this site...DEBT DEBT DEBT! It is common for the U.S. to have recessions or some kind of crisis every five to 10 years (economic cycle or government screw up, you choose)...the debt will exacerbate the "BUST" into something just as bad as 2008 or worse. This bull market is going on 10 years next year...one of our longest. Do you think there's no end to this market melt up? What happens when corporate buybacks dry up or servicing our debt becomes problematic as rates rise?

Hypothetical: Can I borrow 100k from you? I promise I will put it somewhere safe...the stock market...that should put you at ease for getting paid back, right? I might add that I owe 300k on my credit cards and second mortgage as well! Is everything still O.K. so far? Are you still going to give me the loan? Does lots of DEBT make any difference at all?

Some people believe the government can just print money forever and our markets and economies will be just fine. The problem is the markets themselves will at some point call BULLSHIT and cause the crisis...probably a credit or currency crises. Sure, at first the safe haven will be the U.S. dollar, but eventually...

Example of excess in our economy: I have a piece of cardboard worth apparently 15k. It's a gem-mint 10 Jerry Rice 1986 rookie card that I bought for $4 in 1987 and it's listed on the internet for over 15k. I find that ridiculous, but it gets worse...I know someone who wants to borrow from their credit card to pay for it. I wouldn't doubt they've bought bitcoin this way as well.:rolleyes:
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seems conventional wisdom ish. this view is too popular among retail traders, hence -

- checking account cash balance is at all time high;
- retail is crowded in gold (perceived safe asset);
- retail is crowded in bitcoin (perceived safe asset);
- retail is still relatively short/flat in stocks.. not as extreme as 2016 and 2017, but sentiment is still bearish (which is bullish for stocks);
 
dozu888 said:
seems conventional wisdom ish. this view is too popular among retail traders, hence -

- checking account cash balance is at all time high;
- retail is crowded in gold (perceived safe asset);
- retail is crowded in bitcoin (perceived safe asset);
- retail is still relatively short/flat in stocks.. not as extreme as 2016 and 2017, but sentiment is still bearish (which is bullish for stocks);
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To counter what you've stated:

-margin debt in stock market at all time high
-gold is in a 7 year bear market
-bitcoin also in a bear market
I agree that what you've stated may help in the short term, but my initial opinion was based on the next ten years...how do you argue the long term?
 
dozu888 said:
why not.
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Or why. If it's both, and it is, then the next ten years may be just like the last ten, or they may be different. Human nature, which is is manifest in vanity, greed, and instinct, changes imperceptibly slowly in comparison to a a human lifetime. Therefore, the future will rhyme with the past, and the past will be prologue for the future.
 
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