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The economic impact of the current Exodus from the United States.
- Thread starter SouthAmerica
- Start date
Quote from Cesko:
HUGE EXODUS but SA stays in the U.S.. Unless,of course, traffic in Sao Paolo gets better.
The only job SA could get in Brazil is as pedal-cab driver. Amazing how someone rants against the USA, favors Brazil, but refuses to live there
As they say, he votes with his residency
.
August 1, 2008
SouthAmerica Reply to Peilthetraveler and Cesko
I posted the following info on this thread before:
April 7, 2008
SouthAmerica: Years ago one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States it was the economist Dr. Jack Lessinger. I remember reading one of his books more than 15 years ago â âPenturbia.â
In that book he gave a full analysis of the real estate market in the entire country, county by county.
There is one fact that I remember that he mentioned on his book â that the real estate market in the New York Metropolitan area, in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area, and in the Miami Metropolitan area were at least 50 percent above the price that was justified in economic terms. Rentals were inflated as well.
He said that the main reason for the real estate price inflation on these 3 markets was Immigrants. If it wasnât for the high volume of immigrants moving to these areas the rentals, and real estate prices would be at least 50 percent lower.
That is the only information that I remember after reading that book many years ago, I never forgot what he said on the book about the impact that immigration, legal and illegal, has on the value of local real estate.
You can read the entire posting at:
Source: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1873115&highlight=Penturbia#post1873115
*******
New posting
August 1, 2008
I hear the talking heads on television going through all kinds of analysis about the real estate market in the United States.
They talk about the sub-prime mess, about foreclosures, and about everything else they can think of â but I have not seen a single person talking about the exodus of legal and illegal immigrants that is underway from the United States and the impact that it is having on the value of real estate around the country.
These people used to live in specific areas around the country and when about 3 to 4 million people pack in and leave town more or less at the same time that can be devastating for entire areas where all these people used to live.
This trend has not caught the attention of the mainstream media first because usually they take a long time to grasp what is going on. Second because this is the first time that millions and millions of people are heading out of the United States and looking for a better opportunity somewhere else. (The only thing that comes to mind in US history it is people trying to come to the United States since its inception. This might be the first time that there are more legal and illegal immigrants leaving the country than people trying to get in.)
Third, there is such a humongous mess related to the sub-prime fiasco, and the resulting massive amount of foreclosures with a negative financial impact in the hundreds of billions of US dollars that the mainstream media will take a while to start writing articles about the imploding prices of real estate caused by this massive exodus of people leaving the United States.
What will take a while for people to grasp is that as these millions of foreigners came to the United States and helped to push the price of real estate by 50 percent in many metropolitan areas decades after decades â not only this source of demand has reversed itself suddenly but now with millions of people leaving the country the trend is going to work in reverse and will help to push real estate prices away down â much further than most people expect.
And the exodus is just going to accelerate in the coming years because of a Perfect Storm that has hit the United States economy.
One more thing, I just read an article published in one of the local Brazilian newspapers written in Portuguese that they distribute on a regular basis in Newark, NJ â the article published 2 weeks ago said that these 3 university professors where sent here to the United States â 2 of the professors came from the State of Minas Gerais, and the other professor came from the State of Santa Catarina. These 2 states are the source of the majority of the people who immigrate out of Brazil.
Now that we have a massive reverse immigration these 2 states want to learn what is happening here in the United States on the communities where this massive number of people used to live and now they are returning to Brazil. The impact on these states in Brazil of this reverse immigration is already obvious to the government of these states.
The government of these 2 states is financing the study. These professors one a historian, the second an anthropologist, and the third a sociologist after spending some time in various Brazilian communities in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York Metropolitan area they found out that this reverse trend has started 2 years ago and they detail the reasons why all these people are leaving the United States.
But they found out something else on their study that 30 percent of the Brazilians who are leaving the United States are not going back to Brazil. They are moving to Europe.
The reason this trend is not moving even faster is becauseâ¦. and they give the reasonsâ¦.
As usual most Americans including the American mainstream media are clueless about what is happening around them. (With very few exceptions.)
.
August 1, 2008
SouthAmerica Reply to Peilthetraveler and Cesko
I posted the following info on this thread before:
April 7, 2008
SouthAmerica: Years ago one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States it was the economist Dr. Jack Lessinger. I remember reading one of his books more than 15 years ago â âPenturbia.â
In that book he gave a full analysis of the real estate market in the entire country, county by county.
There is one fact that I remember that he mentioned on his book â that the real estate market in the New York Metropolitan area, in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area, and in the Miami Metropolitan area were at least 50 percent above the price that was justified in economic terms. Rentals were inflated as well.
He said that the main reason for the real estate price inflation on these 3 markets was Immigrants. If it wasnât for the high volume of immigrants moving to these areas the rentals, and real estate prices would be at least 50 percent lower.
That is the only information that I remember after reading that book many years ago, I never forgot what he said on the book about the impact that immigration, legal and illegal, has on the value of local real estate.
You can read the entire posting at:
Source: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1873115&highlight=Penturbia#post1873115
*******
New posting
August 1, 2008
I hear the talking heads on television going through all kinds of analysis about the real estate market in the United States.
They talk about the sub-prime mess, about foreclosures, and about everything else they can think of â but I have not seen a single person talking about the exodus of legal and illegal immigrants that is underway from the United States and the impact that it is having on the value of real estate around the country.
These people used to live in specific areas around the country and when about 3 to 4 million people pack in and leave town more or less at the same time that can be devastating for entire areas where all these people used to live.
This trend has not caught the attention of the mainstream media first because usually they take a long time to grasp what is going on. Second because this is the first time that millions and millions of people are heading out of the United States and looking for a better opportunity somewhere else. (The only thing that comes to mind in US history it is people trying to come to the United States since its inception. This might be the first time that there are more legal and illegal immigrants leaving the country than people trying to get in.)
Third, there is such a humongous mess related to the sub-prime fiasco, and the resulting massive amount of foreclosures with a negative financial impact in the hundreds of billions of US dollars that the mainstream media will take a while to start writing articles about the imploding prices of real estate caused by this massive exodus of people leaving the United States.
What will take a while for people to grasp is that as these millions of foreigners came to the United States and helped to push the price of real estate by 50 percent in many metropolitan areas decades after decades â not only this source of demand has reversed itself suddenly but now with millions of people leaving the country the trend is going to work in reverse and will help to push real estate prices away down â much further than most people expect.
And the exodus is just going to accelerate in the coming years because of a Perfect Storm that has hit the United States economy.
One more thing, I just read an article published in one of the local Brazilian newspapers written in Portuguese that they distribute on a regular basis in Newark, NJ â the article published 2 weeks ago said that these 3 university professors where sent here to the United States â 2 of the professors came from the State of Minas Gerais, and the other professor came from the State of Santa Catarina. These 2 states are the source of the majority of the people who immigrate out of Brazil.
Now that we have a massive reverse immigration these 2 states want to learn what is happening here in the United States on the communities where this massive number of people used to live and now they are returning to Brazil. The impact on these states in Brazil of this reverse immigration is already obvious to the government of these states.
The government of these 2 states is financing the study. These professors one a historian, the second an anthropologist, and the third a sociologist after spending some time in various Brazilian communities in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York Metropolitan area they found out that this reverse trend has started 2 years ago and they detail the reasons why all these people are leaving the United States.
But they found out something else on their study that 30 percent of the Brazilians who are leaving the United States are not going back to Brazil. They are moving to Europe.
The reason this trend is not moving even faster is becauseâ¦. and they give the reasonsâ¦.
As usual most Americans including the American mainstream media are clueless about what is happening around them. (With very few exceptions.)
.
SA, i'm struggling to follow this; on the one hand it may be understandable professional , legal immigrants may leave, the cost of living for one, political climate etc. in these major centres of florida, NY and the like.
But illegals? Its baffling how they could afford to live in these places to begin with, but the world over, people pay a premium for living in these places, only to find the cost of living eliminating any benefit from more available work, its not an uncommon situation.
But if your talking labour only, in that aspect, I have never, ever seen a critical shortage of construction workers (or other labour) for example, drive real estate/industry prices DOWN, the reverse is normally true, isnt it?
There might be an exodus, i don't know, but i fail to see how this in itself wouldn't actually prop up prices more than expected, versus your scenario that it would depress prices more.
"Three professors walk into a bar......"
But illegals? Its baffling how they could afford to live in these places to begin with, but the world over, people pay a premium for living in these places, only to find the cost of living eliminating any benefit from more available work, its not an uncommon situation.
But if your talking labour only, in that aspect, I have never, ever seen a critical shortage of construction workers (or other labour) for example, drive real estate/industry prices DOWN, the reverse is normally true, isnt it?
There might be an exodus, i don't know, but i fail to see how this in itself wouldn't actually prop up prices more than expected, versus your scenario that it would depress prices more.
"Three professors walk into a bar......"
.
August 2, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Acronym
Please donât combine what one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States the economist Dr. Jack Lessinger said on his books more than 15 years ago â âPenturbiaâ and the story that I mentioned that just happened about the 3 Brazilian professors who came to the US recently to do research about the exodus of Brazilians who are returning to Brazil.
The Brazilian professors where not studying the impact of this exodus on Us real state prices â they were interested only in the issues affecting these Brazilians here in the US and the impact that their return it will have in the local economy of these states in Brazil.
But Dr. Jack Lessinger is one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States, and he studied real estate trends in the US over the centuries â he is the authority on real estate matters in the United States. Nobody understand more than Dr. Jack Lessinger anything related to real estate.
He is the ultimate authority on this subject and he said: âthat the real estate market in the New York Metropolitan area, in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area, and in the Miami Metropolitan area were at least 50 percent above the price that was justified in economic terms. Rentals were inflated as well.â
He studied the influx of foreigners (legal and illegal) who immigrated to the United States over a long period of time and the impact that they had in the value of real estate and also in the rental of properties.
According to him there was a correlation between the inflow of immigrants and the price of real estate in the areas where these immigrants were living.
Many of the people that I know who returned to Brazil or went to live on other countries they lived in their own house, or condos. They had to sell their property before they moved out of the US.
My friend Domicio went to Brazil 2 weeks ago to attend a special seminar at the Itamarati in Brazil and he had the chance to meet various politicians including some senators. He was invited by the Brazilian government to attend a 3 day seminar and he had to give a presentation to these politicians about the Brazilian population living in the New York Metropolitan area â and they discussed a number of issues that affect the Brazilian immigrants living in foreign lands including the US.
Some of the innovations that they are trying to institute in Brazil regarding these Brazilian immigrants are mind-boggling.
Domicio told me that it would take a few years for some of these changes to materialize.
.
August 2, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Acronym
Please donât combine what one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States the economist Dr. Jack Lessinger said on his books more than 15 years ago â âPenturbiaâ and the story that I mentioned that just happened about the 3 Brazilian professors who came to the US recently to do research about the exodus of Brazilians who are returning to Brazil.
The Brazilian professors where not studying the impact of this exodus on Us real state prices â they were interested only in the issues affecting these Brazilians here in the US and the impact that their return it will have in the local economy of these states in Brazil.
But Dr. Jack Lessinger is one of the foremost experts on real estate in the United States, and he studied real estate trends in the US over the centuries â he is the authority on real estate matters in the United States. Nobody understand more than Dr. Jack Lessinger anything related to real estate.
He is the ultimate authority on this subject and he said: âthat the real estate market in the New York Metropolitan area, in the Los Angeles Metropolitan area, and in the Miami Metropolitan area were at least 50 percent above the price that was justified in economic terms. Rentals were inflated as well.â
He studied the influx of foreigners (legal and illegal) who immigrated to the United States over a long period of time and the impact that they had in the value of real estate and also in the rental of properties.
According to him there was a correlation between the inflow of immigrants and the price of real estate in the areas where these immigrants were living.
Many of the people that I know who returned to Brazil or went to live on other countries they lived in their own house, or condos. They had to sell their property before they moved out of the US.
My friend Domicio went to Brazil 2 weeks ago to attend a special seminar at the Itamarati in Brazil and he had the chance to meet various politicians including some senators. He was invited by the Brazilian government to attend a 3 day seminar and he had to give a presentation to these politicians about the Brazilian population living in the New York Metropolitan area â and they discussed a number of issues that affect the Brazilian immigrants living in foreign lands including the US.
Some of the innovations that they are trying to institute in Brazil regarding these Brazilian immigrants are mind-boggling.
Domicio told me that it would take a few years for some of these changes to materialize.
.
.
August 3, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Larrybf
I've never been a quitter in my life, but I know when it is time to cut my losses.
I gave up completely on the United States, and right now I am working on a project related to Brazil and another country.
Today someone with my education level and business background has zero value here in the United States.
Today during diner a friend of mine reminded me that Americans could careless about South America including Brazil, and we realized that the feeling it was mutual.
But in the meantime I will continue living here in the United States and will observe how an imploding system works. Argentina went through that kind of imploding experience a few years ago. Now it is time for us here in the United States to go through a similar experience.
.
August 3, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Larrybf
I've never been a quitter in my life, but I know when it is time to cut my losses.
I gave up completely on the United States, and right now I am working on a project related to Brazil and another country.
Today someone with my education level and business background has zero value here in the United States.
Today during diner a friend of mine reminded me that Americans could careless about South America including Brazil, and we realized that the feeling it was mutual.
But in the meantime I will continue living here in the United States and will observe how an imploding system works. Argentina went through that kind of imploding experience a few years ago. Now it is time for us here in the United States to go through a similar experience.
.
Excellent Commentary As Usual..........
................................................................................
There have been several recent country implosions....namely Indonesia, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Equador, Venezuela....the list goes on....noting none of the above recent imploded countries have recovered to strength......the other point being that there seems to always be several countries going through implosion, whereas at the same time there are other countries seemingly in their heydays......
.................................................................................
At this point.....what do you feel would be a good remedy for the US ?
What can the US do to best move forward from this point ?
................................................................................
There have been several recent country implosions....namely Indonesia, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Equador, Venezuela....the list goes on....noting none of the above recent imploded countries have recovered to strength......the other point being that there seems to always be several countries going through implosion, whereas at the same time there are other countries seemingly in their heydays......
.................................................................................
At this point.....what do you feel would be a good remedy for the US ?
What can the US do to best move forward from this point ?
Quote from southamerica:
.
I gave up completely on the United States, and right now I am working on a project related to Brazil and another country.
Today someone with my education level and business background has zero value here in the United States.
But in the meantime I will continue living here in the United States and will observe how an imploding system works.
.
Why live in the US? This is something no one on ET can understand. You post little else on ET other than US bashing, Brazil pumping or completely wrong US political analysis; and you state that your background has zero value in the States.
We are all curious, WHY do you remain in the place that you claim is doomed?
.
August 4, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Libertad
As I mentioned months ago the experiment that the Democratic Party is making is going to turn out very bad when Barack Obama losses the election in November 2008.
The new president John McCain is going to place at least two new people in the US Supreme Court â and that court is going to be an extremely conservative court for a long time.
The black population will pay a very high price for the privilege of having a black man as a candidate of a major party.
At the end of the day, Barack Obama is not going to have the necessary votes in many swing states to put him over the top.
In my opinion the people who run the Democratic Party is a bunch of Pathetic people.
This is an election that the Democratic Party could not lose even if they wanted, but those idiots are going to manage to lose the election. That is how bad they are.
The United States is at a very important turning point on its history â the next president will have to confront the Perfect Storm and an imploding economy.
As the new world moves forward with economies with low debt and great prospects for the future â the United States implodes into a black hole like never seen before.
The idiots leveraged this economy in the last decade like there will be no tomorrow. And now that the house of cards is collapsing the power of leverage works in reverse devastating the entire system.
I guess a few years from now when Ben Bernanke leaves his job at the Fed â at that time the Federal Reserve is going to own most of the mortgages in the United States, the airlines, many banks, insurance companies, many Hedge Funds, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Boeing, and God knows which other businesses that are going to be in trouble in the near future.
When John McCain becomes president in January 2009 he is going to inherit a humongous mess and a wrecked country - and the man does not have a clue about the subject of economics.
Maybe McCain can start World War III and turn the entire US economy into a war economy.
I would not be surprised to find out that this particular strategy is in the cards.
I have no idea what John McCain is going to do other than give more tax cuts.
.
August 4, 2008
SouthAmerica: Reply to Libertad
As I mentioned months ago the experiment that the Democratic Party is making is going to turn out very bad when Barack Obama losses the election in November 2008.
The new president John McCain is going to place at least two new people in the US Supreme Court â and that court is going to be an extremely conservative court for a long time.
The black population will pay a very high price for the privilege of having a black man as a candidate of a major party.
At the end of the day, Barack Obama is not going to have the necessary votes in many swing states to put him over the top.
In my opinion the people who run the Democratic Party is a bunch of Pathetic people.
This is an election that the Democratic Party could not lose even if they wanted, but those idiots are going to manage to lose the election. That is how bad they are.
The United States is at a very important turning point on its history â the next president will have to confront the Perfect Storm and an imploding economy.
As the new world moves forward with economies with low debt and great prospects for the future â the United States implodes into a black hole like never seen before.
The idiots leveraged this economy in the last decade like there will be no tomorrow. And now that the house of cards is collapsing the power of leverage works in reverse devastating the entire system.
I guess a few years from now when Ben Bernanke leaves his job at the Fed â at that time the Federal Reserve is going to own most of the mortgages in the United States, the airlines, many banks, insurance companies, many Hedge Funds, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Boeing, and God knows which other businesses that are going to be in trouble in the near future.
When John McCain becomes president in January 2009 he is going to inherit a humongous mess and a wrecked country - and the man does not have a clue about the subject of economics.
Maybe McCain can start World War III and turn the entire US economy into a war economy.
I would not be surprised to find out that this particular strategy is in the cards.
I have no idea what John McCain is going to do other than give more tax cuts.
.