I keep looking at these threads b/c I want to hear some uplifting stuff about how a cool democratic country is showing some signs that is on the right track, and maybe learn something new about it. But all this trash talk about the US is annoying. Don't you realize most of us in the US would like to see Brazil prosper and earn a seat at the grownup table? Other than India, Brazil is probably the up-and-comer we are cheering for the most.
But can't you start out by comparing Brazil to Australia or Germany? I think it has to keep doing what it is doing for quite a while without backsliding to really compare it to the US with a straight face. And keep that in mind - there are countries have a promising decade or two then peak or blowup.
You are probably right that the US won't be a superpower forever but I doubt this is the year that it ends, and you probably should not hope that it is. It seems like we have been hearing we are going down the shitter for 40 years or so but we somehow hang on. Hopefully when it finally is over we will be able to look back at our turn at the front and say we did more good than bad for the world. Even if we are working for Brazillians when that day comes.
But I want to make 3 substantive replies to your points and ask you 1 question:
1) Debt capacity matters. Think in terms of interest coverage - the less volatile economy means the US can borrow more as a % of GDP "safely" than many other countries. And if our creditors didn't agree then treasury yields would be a lot higher.
2) If we are funding good investments with our debt then we are better off using our debt capacity in the long run. And maybe you can take issue with a particular investment in our portfolio or two, but the long term track record seems good.
3) I think you are confusing some nationbuilding difficulties with the ability to defeat an enemy when the gloves are off.
And my question to you is I would like to see your estimate of Brazillian unemployment adjusted for all the stuff you adjust the US number for, unless you claim the official number bakes all that in. BTW, in much of the country our low unemployment rate is real, we are now putting the marginally competent to work.
Hopefully I will never make a post this long again.
Quote from southamerica:
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H hubbins: All of your debt talk is crap. What matters is debt to gdp ratio. Ours is not a problem.
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May 9, 2008
SouthAmerica: You forgot to quote the current US government position: Debt does not matter since the US government has an infinite credit line from the rest of the world. Without US business there is no world economy, the rest of the world would stop â the US economy is the only economy relevant to world affairs, and so onâ¦.
By the way, if you had the chance to read the latest issue of Harperâs magazine â the article by Kevin Philips âNumbers Racket â Why the Economy Is Worse Than We Know.â In that article he mentioned something that I knew for a long time the official government figures for GDP is a real Fairy Tale; about 15 percent of that figure is made up of stuff like the government come up with the value of having a free checking account and that Mickey Mouse number is added to GDP.
Without the Mickey Mouse stuff the real GDP of the United States is around $ 10 trillion dollars. And when you calculate the amount of Defense spending based on the real number $ 10 trillion dollars then you get a better picture of how much money the United States is pissing away in wasteful wars including Iraq and Afghanistan.
Bu the way, a bunch of people armed with weapons vintage World War II is giving a real of a hard time to this army armed with the state of the art weaponry that cost hundreds of billions of US dollars.
Get into your thick head â the world it is too big for the United States to try to police it with its little army.
Keep in mind: the United States could not beat the North Koreans in the 1950âs â after that the US lost the Vietnam War â and in the last 5 years the United States did not look so hot fighting in 2 countries that had been completely destroyed and have a few thousand freedom fighters armed with weapons from 60 years ago and the US army look like the Soviet army in Afghanistan in the late 1980âs.
The difference is that today the entire world is watching on a daily basis on television and everybody knows how inept the US army has become in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Can you imagine if the United States had to fight tomorrow a real war with a country such as China?
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Hhubbins: There is a long f-ing line to get into the USA. People wait years to get here legally and many cut in line and come illegally.
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SouthAmerica: Thousands and thousands of illegal immigrants have been heading home since last year â and these people are the canary on the coalmine.
Everything that is good eventually it will come to an end.
Look at the British they used to rule the world and the seven seas, and many British people still delusional and think that they still a major world power â and they want to hang on to an obsolete currency instead of adopting a new currency for the 21st century.
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