The Economic Impact of Illegal Immigration.

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neophyte321: He said that the main reason for the real estate price inflation on these two markets was Immigrants.


IF this is accurate, I'm certain he was refering primarily to LEGAL immigration. And if so, your "theory", would not be supported by this statement AT ALL.


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August 29, 2006

SouthAmerica: The US government does not have a clue if we have 12 or 30 million illegal immigrants living inside the United States today.

Where do you think all these illegal immigrants live?

In Mexico? – and they commute to the US every day?

I am sure that these illegal immigrants are living all over the United States, but I don’t know how many are renting their houses and apartments and how many actually own their properties.

A lot of these illegal immigrants work hard here in the US and they are able to save money to buy properties – and some of them become very wealthy.

If you have been watching Lou Dobbs Moneyline on CNN then you know that he has been wagging a war on illegal immigration for over a year.

Eventually all these changes here in the US will start scaring illegal immigrants away, and many of the illegal immigrants who are living in the US will decide to go somewhere else since life will become hell for them in the United States.

All these trends will have a dramatic effect on the price of real estate in the coming years in many areas of the country including the New York Metropolitan area.


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Quote from Pabst:

Without doubt immigration, both legal and illegal, has propped up home prices in the U.S.

There's been a tremendous trickle up effect. Since I'm a native Chicagoan I know Chicago RE like the back of my hand. In the last 25 years an estimated 500,000 Mexicans have moved into Illinois. At the same time, the population of Chicago has been declining. Hence without the influx of Mexican's, many homes in older industrial neighborhoods that would have been virtually unmarketable to younger whites have found buyers. Those Mexican buyers have allowed those old school white "ethnics" an opportunity to then buy middle class homes in Chicago's suburbs. The owners of those middle class homes have in turn found buyers which has given them an opp to move up to an even nicer suburb or one of those numerous new hi-rise condo's popping up all over the near North Side. Take Mexican's out of the equation and home prices within ALL sectors would be weaker.

I'm not making a case for illegal immigration but rather I'm just stating an economic reality.
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Frankly, I doubt these situations have had little more than negligble effect on real-estate prices over-all. Consider the poll results for the following question: "Have you ever sold a primary residence to an illegal immigrant and moved to a more expensive home?" It may happen, but illegal immigrants, I'd surmise are net renters.

Sure its a basic supply/demand issue, but I'm not sure what demand illegals add to that equation.

I don't have hard data on this, but I'm nearly certain the real-estate has appreciated far quicker outside the areas primarily inhabited by Illegal immigrants.
 
Quote from southamerica:

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neophyte321: He said that the main reason for the real estate price inflation on these two markets was Immigrants.


IF this is accurate, I'm certain he was refering primarily to LEGAL immigration. And if so, your "theory", would not be supported by this statement AT ALL.


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August 29, 2006

SouthAmerica: The US government does not have a clue if we have 12 or 30 million illegal immigrants living inside the United States today.

Where do you think all these illegal immigrants live?

In Mexico? – and they commute to the US every day?

I am sure that these illegal immigrants are living all over the United States, but I don’t know how many are renting their houses and apartments and how many actually own their properties.

A lot of these illegal immigrants work hard here in the US and they are able to save money to buy properties – and some of them become very wealthy.

If you have been watching Lou Dobbs Moneyline on CNN then you know that he has been wagging a war on illegal immigration for over a year.

Eventually all these changes here in the US will start scaring illegal immigrants away, and many of the illegal immigrants who are living in the US will decide to go somewhere else since life will become hell for them in the United States.

All these trends will have a dramatic effect on the price of real estate in the coming years in many areas of the country including the New York Metropolitan area.


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Good try. Real-Estate is not one big monolithic market.

The only Real-Estate markets that will be effected by all these poor illegal immigrants, whose "life will become hell in the United States", leaving are the ones they presently occupy.

NO WORRIES FROM WHERE IM SITTING!


Rising interest rates and a slowing economy will be the cause of 99% of the decline in housing. Not too mention, the developers have probably over-built during the past 5 years.
 
Quote from neophyte321:

Frankly, I doubt these situations have had little more than negligble effect on real-estate prices over-all. Consider the poll results for the following question: "Have you ever sold a primary residence to an illegal immigrant and moved to a more expensive home?" It may happen, but illegal immigrants, I'd surmise are net renters.

Sure its a basic supply/demand issue, but I'm not sure what demand illegals add to that equation.

I don't have hard data on this, but I'm nearly certain the real-estate has appreciated far quicker outside the areas primarily inhabited by Illegal immigrants.
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No doubt they're net renters. Still the same effect. A crappy apartment in a crappy neighborhood that was unrentable found an occupant. In turn the owners of these old apartment houses are flush. In fact a friend of mine from the CBOT is a prime example. He began sucking up small apartment buildings in Chicago's Humboldt Park area. Real shit. But now his cash flow is so tremendous it enabled him to build an $800,000 home for himself.

There was an article a few months back in the NYT about Watts. South Central Los Angeles is now majority Latino. Where did the blacks move on to? Well with the 300-500k they've received for their homes in L.A. they've moved on to Vegas! Thus your thesis that "resort" areas or the New South have not been net beneficiaries is possibly bogus. A market is a market. If you unexpectedly dump 15 million people suddenly into a nation that's created far less new housing units than that number, bingo you have price appreciation.


I now live in Miami. Don't even attempt to tell me that the zillions of Cubans, Haitians, Dominicans and Brazilians moving into SoFla hasn't lent support to the housing market here. Just yesterday the Sun-Sentinel contained an article highlighting the growth of Boca Raton's Brazilian population. Brazilians weren't even on the radar a few years ago let alone in a place like Boca.
 
Quote from Pabst:

There was an article a few months back in the NYT about Watts. South Central Los Angeles is now majority Latino. Where did the blacks move on to? Well with the 300-500k they've received for their homes in L.A. they've moved on to Vegas! Thus your thesis that "resort" areas or the New South have not been net beneficiaries is possibly bogus. A market is a market. If you unexpectedly dump 15 million people suddenly into a nation that's created far less new housing units than that number, bingo you have price appreciation.

Yes you are 100% correct on this point. This is exactly what is happening.
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August 29, 2006

SouthAmerica: I have been watching for many years the impact that immigration has had in a town such as Newark, NJ. For many decades the Ironbound section of Newark has been populated by the Portuguese.

I have been seeing first hand the transformation of Newark in the last 10 years – even the “Star Ledger” the major newspaper in New Jersey has been documenting the change over the years in Newark. We had during this period a major influx of Brazilians in that area and at the same time a large number of Portuguese returned to Portugal over the years since Portugal adopted the Euro and stabilized economically the Portuguese economy.

The Portuguese in Newark started feeling the impact of the influx of Brazilians in the area in the increasing price of property rentals and increase price of real estate and so on....



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neophyte321: IF this is accurate, I'm certain he was referring primarily to LEGAL immigration. And if so, your "theory", would not be supported by this statement AT ALL.

REMARKABLY, Paul Krugman is on record stating illegal immigrants are a net cost. They consume far more in government services than economic activity they generate.

One family of five kids, consumes close to 60k a year in educational expenses alone, for example, while they pay virtually nothing in taxes.


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August 29, 2006

SouthAmerica: I agree 100 percent with Paul Krugman. And I also wrote in the past about the problem of “legal and illegal immigration” and its impact in the future of the country.

You can read my article about US population at the following website:

July 2000 – “Overpopulated”
http://www.brazzil.com/content/view/6963/73/


I am sure that legal immigrants have a major impact on the price of real estate properties – and illegal immigrants would have a major impact on the level of rents paid to landlords.

But still directly or indirectly the illegal immigrants have an impact on the price of real estate. If these 12 to 20 or even 30 million illegal immigrants decided to return to their countries we would have a lot of empty properties around in the United States – for sell or for rental.


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Quote from Pabst:

No doubt they're net renters. Still the same effect. A crappy apartment in a crappy neighborhood that was unrentable found an occupant. In turn the owners of these old apartment houses are flush. In fact a friend of mine from the CBOT is a prime example. He began sucking up small apartment buildings in Chicago's Humboldt Park area. Real shit. But now his cash flow is so tremendous it enabled him to build an $800,000 home for himself.

There was an article a few months back in the NYT about Watts. South Central Los Angeles is now majority Latino. Where did the blacks move on to? Well with the 300-500k they've received for their homes in L.A. they've moved on to Vegas! Thus your thesis that "resort" areas or the New South have not been net beneficiaries is possibly bogus. A market is a market. If you unexpectedly dump 15 million people suddenly into a nation that's created far less new housing units than that number, bingo you have price appreciation.


I now live in Miami. Don't even attempt to tell me that the zillions of Cubans, Haitians, Dominicans and Brazilians moving into SoFla hasn't lent support to the housing market here. Just yesterday the Sun-Sentinel contained an article highlighting the growth of Boca Raton's Brazilian population. Brazilians weren't even on the radar a few years ago let alone in a place like Boca.
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Obviously yours are very good points, BUT I doubt that if the feds finally decided to fullfill their constitutional obligation to protect the borders a appreciable decline in the broader real-estate markets would be felt as a result.

The inner-cities in major cities have been stagnating or even depreciating for decades ... I can still go and buy a home for 10k in certain parts of town. Makes no difference to the suburban or the rural markets.

Clearly, it's a matter of perspective. I live in the heartland not in little havana. I'm not a real-estate expert, I thought I was responding to a Pro-Amnesty thread started by SouthAmerica.

In my opinion, real-estate is not a valid argument for Pro-Amnesty.
 
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August 30, 2006

SouthAmerica: Today, there are approximately 1.3 million Brazilians living here in the US. But I also have seen estimates that bring the total number to around 1.8 million people. But the 1.3 million estimate is a more realistic figure. (half are legal and the other half are illegal immigrants)


Locations where Brazilians are living in the US:

Total Brazilian Population Living in the US in 2006

Location ………. Legal Immigrants …….Estimated Illegals ... TOTAL
NJ/NY/Conn………...300,000…………….. 250,000………………. 550,000
Boston area……….. 150,000…………….…50,000………………..200,000
Miami area……...……150,000……………….50,000………………. 200,000
Wash. D.C………..…..50,000……………….20,000………………....70,000
Other States………….50,000………………230,000……………….280,000
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Total……………...…...700,000………………600,000……………..1,300,000
..........................======............ ======............ =======


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neophyte321: In my opinion, real-estate is not a valid argument for Pro-Amnesty.


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August 30, 2006

SouthAmerica: Let me clarify to you one more time - I am not pro-amnesty.

I just mentioned real estate in relation to immigrants because I know for a fact that legal and illegal immigrants affect the price of rented property and also the market value of real estate in many markets around the country.

I am not making a case for illegal immigrant amnesty, because I am aware of all the other costs involved in the long-term – Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and so on……

By the way, I believe the United States let too many people in every year as legal immigrants - never mind the illegal immigrants.


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