The Dunning-Kruger Effect

There was recently a NY Times article regarding it.

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/the-anosognosics-dilemma-1/?src=me&ref=opinion

Especially good read because it tells the story of how Dunning came up with the idea.

Specifically there was a bank robber who rubbed lemon juice on his face in order to conceal his identity from the cameras. Of course that didn't work and the video from the cameras was instrumental in arresting him. But what surprised the police was that when he was caught he was genuinely surprised cause he said "But I wore the juice". Police even said he tried taking a picture of himself to make sure it worked prior to the robbery. So then Dunning thought, wow, maybe he's so stupid he doesn't realize that he's too stupid to actually rob a bank!

Explains so much.
 
Thanks. I saw it referenced in a concealed carry handgun forum, of all places. I was a brilliantly intuitive trader for many years before I started backtesting.
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

...Proof of the traditional Southern aphorism: "Truly stupid people don't know that they are." As to how this might apply to ET, I am still cogitating on the subject.
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You may wish to visit the P&R forum for conclusive evidence. In fact, as evidence goes, I trust you will find this source to be an embarrassment of riches.
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

Oh, my! Here I was thinking of Journals! Some weeks ago I read learned opinions that ET's greatest minds resided there. I checked.
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As journals go, how do you classify augurs?
 
This is so embarassing. I thought YOU were stupid and misspelt "auger", as in the aviation expression "auger into the ground", which is what Journals reminds me of. Is there an augury thread in Journals? (As an aside to readers, why do you suppose it is that Canadians feel obliged to talk down to Americans? I am more than a bit addled, as my brain keeps screaming out things Stan McChrystal should have said to Mobama in parting.)
 
Psychics. Clairvoyants.

OK. Yes. They must be. Because the overwhelmiong majority of trades I saw looked worse than guesses. Some of them were based on ideas that I wasted my rapidly waning life testing. When I asked innocent Socratic questions I was shooed away. I did see a lot of one-trial learning. "Price just bounced off the 23.46 ema, so therefore that must be support." My favorite was a post on rollover day to the effect that "Volume is really extraordinarily shitty this morning."

Lest you suspect that I am not trading, I am not. My oxygen tank regulator can't handle five point one-minute bars in NQ.
 
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