ROFL...That is the beauty of it. So many scenarios...so many opportunities.You can make a case for ANY scenario using Technical Analysis.
Fact of the matter is that Commercials have been using every correction since 2009 to accumulate long equity positions at average prices considerably cheaper than current valuations. It’s what they do. They collect 401K and pension allocations and put it to work.
Even the December and January correction wasn’t substantial enough to change that game plan. Obviously.
1) reversals happen. Eventually fundamentals turn.
2) Plenty of investors in mutual funds have gotton hammered when markets turn. And lost their savings when they were just told to hang on..it will come back.
3) Charts can’t just keep going on. There will always be reversals...PB’s..so timing is always involved even if an investor. Over decades you could say something just keeps going up but when the drawdowns hit they can be too big for the mom and pop retail investor. Wiping out his account.
4) Trading and timing offer the opportunities of compounding profits which can’t be done on buy and hold strategies ..not on the same scale.
Triangles and other chart patterns can be coded and backtested, just like anything else.drawing lines and shit... when are people gonna stop doing this shit..
Triangles and other chart patterns can be coded and backtested, just like anything else.
Bulkowski tested 899 ascending triangles, resulting in a 63% chance of a BO.
His parameters were very general. So it is not a "sure thing."
But... with proper risk management it could do OK. It is currently not one of my trades however.
What do you mean "Commercials"?You can make a case for ANY scenario using Technical Analysis.
Fact of the matter is that Commercials have been using every correction since 2009 to accumulate long equity positions at average prices considerably cheaper than current valuations. It’s what they do. They collect 401K and pension allocations and put it to work.
Even the December and January correction wasn’t substantial enough to change that game plan. What many retailers here on ET were convinced was the start of a Bear market was instead another opportunity for averaging in.
Obviously.
IMO it’s going to take a string of missed earnings to get the Commercials to change course.
Whatever works for you is the way to go. There are so many different successful techniques. If you are successful, that is all that counts.hm good to know..thx.
however, if it's an ascending triangle then 'BO' is simply a continuation of the trend... probably with an odds of ~60% anyway... in other words I can say if the linear regression is rising then there is a 60% chance (just guessing) that the price will go higher.. regardless triangle or not..
my theory is... just get the macro correct... like we may actually run out of shares lol... drawing lines and shit... very little help... probably much less useful than sentiment.. e.g. buy whenever VIX>30 or when AAII bearish >40 etc...
Why does Mr Buffet bother? With all his analysis of stocks?3 years ago I put up the thread 'are we gonna run out of shares', when QQQ was at 105.. 80 points later the fundamentals have not changed, equities are still dirt cheap... 3 years ago anybody asked the same question and did some independent thinking could have made a killing and potentially be set for life.... on paper market timing can generate killer returns, yet 95% of professionals can't beat the SPY... and nobody can beat the QQQ... so why bother.
the moms and pops just need better education... take Warren Buffett's guideline, only buy so much stock to sleep well if there is a 50% down...
Why does Mr Buffet bother? With all his analysis of stocks?
Why does he still do it? Now he could move the s&ptouched upon this point before... Warren actually already conceded that he can't beat the SP.
the analysis stuff worked in the early part of his career when 'value metrics analysis' still had an edge.
SO WHAT??? it's irrelevant to this thread. Read his thread's title before responding, especially the words "drop momentarily".
Your way of reading chart is fabulous