The Dow Jones Performance – Is it Real or a Mirage?

[SouthAmerica]

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444Cjones4444: By the way, the Dow is up 40% in three months. Has it ever crossed your mind that there's more than manipulation going on here?


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June 3, 2009

SouthAmerica: Yes.

There’s massive US government intervention all over the US financial sector as never seen before.

The truth is without this massive US government intervention and all kinds of financial guarantees instead of the market being up 40 percent – the market would be down another 30 to 40 percent by now.

Today, the Federal Reserve is nothing more than a toxic waste dump for the US financial sector.

I still believe that this is just another suckers rally anyway.




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Landis82: …along with all the other idiots that have no idea what their doing, and make the amateur mistake of thinking that the Economy has a direct correlation with the equity market.


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June 3, 2009

SouthAmerica: But when the masters of Wall Street were going down and Wall Street was melting down last year they came out of the woodwork to beg the US government for money to bail them out. When Paulson, Buffett and many others were begging for a bailout they were very clear on their scare tactics that if the US taxpayer did not give a bailout to Wall Street then the entire US economy would implode into a great depression and nobody would get any type of credit to perform any type of business.

To make a story short: last Fall when Wall Street was begging for taxpayer money then there was a direct connection to the real US economy.

You have to be a fool to be playing on this market – this is a market that is dependent on US government massive intervention and guarantees, and on accounting changes to manipulate the financial figures and be able to show fudged results.

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[Eight]

You can go to Yahoo finance and overlay a chart of the broader S&P500 index on the Dow30 and see that they track remarkably well. That supports the idea from statistics 101 that 30 is a "large" sample....

I love these scientific articles I see that lay their claim to validity in the huge number of data points... professors from major universitites have come to a trading website owned by guys that made $100,000,000 in their own lifetime by trading with proof that trading is impossible... my biggest question nowadays is "can educated people learn?"

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Kassz007:

Self-attribution bias. Those who are wrong about the markets blame forces that are out of their control (i.e. bad luck, MARKET MANIPULATION). Those who are right about the markets believe it is because of their own doing as opposed to forces that are out of their control. This applies to other areas of human nature as well, not just the stock market.

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I see this on the poker table all the time.

 

[nutmeg]

Economy has a direct correlation with the equity market.

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Why no IPO's?

But on the flip side. Everyone is selling addtional stock and someone is buying.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from ElCubano:

I see this on the poker table all the time.

Poker is probably the biggest situation where this happens, more so than the stock market in my opinion. Probably because there is more luck involved. If you don't understand the percentages and risk/reward, you end up attributing every lost hand to bad luck. Winning hands are due to their good play, not good luck. If you understand the probabilities and risk/reward, you'll know that the 5% out you just hit on the river was not due to your good play, you just got shit lucky.

 

[drjekyllus]

Quote from Kassz007:

If you don't understand the percentages and risk/reward, you end up attributing every lost hand to bad luck. Winning hands are due to their good play, not good luck.

Playing individual hands is based on strickly playing the right pot odds and implied odds. Win or lose the individual hand is not of great concern as long as you were getting the best of it. Luck plays a great role in each hand. Over a series of hands those odds begin to add up in your favor if you are playing with the right odds and the luck begins to factor itself out and your winning percent begins to converge to the EV. Over a long time span everybody gets the same luck and the better player will end up with more money in front of them. Over a short time span, luck is the driving force.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from drjekyllus:

Playing individual hands is based on strickly playing the right pot odds and implied odds.

you can also play the table, position and the player and just as important the element of surprise ( by being elusive).....it isnt always about pot odds or implied odds.

implied odds isnt equal across the table. It must be paid off in order to take into consideration.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from ElCubano:

you can also play the table, position and the player and just as important the element of surprise ( by being elusive).....it isnt always about pot odds or implied odds.

implied odds isnt equal across the table. It must be paid off in order to take into consideration.

My strategy usually consists of a pot odds calculation, and then I use position, player, tells etc. to supplement that information. I know that to go up against a very tight player I need a very good hand regardless of what pot odds are telling me. However if I don't get the pot odds, then I don't usually even consider playing the hand, regardless of my opponent.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Kassz007:

My strategy usually consists of a pot odds calculation, and then I use position, player, tells etc. to supplement that information. I know that to go up against a very tight player I need a very good hand regardless of what pot odds are telling me. However if I don't get the pot odds, then I don't usually even consider playing the hand, regardless of my opponent.

and with a tight player it is also easier to get him off a good hand with you having nothing...depends on alot of things. community cards your position and his commitment into the pot.

Lots of factors go in to playing poker. Raising a loose table with 7/2 on the button with 7 limpers works out differently then with a tight table....

 

[SouthAmerica]

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June 3, 2009

SouthAmerica: Talking about stock market manipulation - today 5 minutes before the market was supposed to close at 4 PM the Dow was down about 134 points.

Five minutes later when the stock market closed in New York the Dow closed down only 66 points.

I find very suspicious these last minute stock market staged recoveries.

You have to be a real fool if you can't grasp that a group of people are actually manipulating this market.

Everything is becoming artificial and make believe on the US stock market and only fools or people with inside information should be participating on this market.

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