But itâs worth pointing out another dynamic thatâs been overlooked here: The escalating disaster that is Paul Ryan. At the time of his selection, a number of pundits argued Ryanâs strategic benefits, suggesting he would boost Romney by energizing conservatives, or by allowing Romney to run as the candidate of big ideas, or that he would at least be the partyâs best defender of the Medicare plan Romney was going to have to defend whether he wanted to or not. This seemed like a stretch at the timeâafter all, Ryanâs Medicare plan proved to be a massive liability the one time voters weighed in on it. But who could say for sure?
Well, fast forward a month-and-a-half and the numbers look pretty persuasive. This week the New York Times released a set of polls, conducted by Quinnipiac, assessing the state of the race in Ohio and Florida. The top-line numbers were jaw-dropping enough: Obamaâs lead in Ohio grew from six to ten over the last month, and from three to nine in Florida. (Itâs better to focus on the change here than the magnitude, which is highly sensitive to polling methodology.) But once you look at the internal numbers, theyâre even less kind to Romney. More to the point, they suggest Ryan has done enormous damage to the ticket.
Back in late August, Obama led Romney on the question of who would handle Medicare better by 8 points in Florida and 10 points in Ohio; now heâs up 15 in Florida and 16 in Ohio. And the problems are especially acute among senior citizens, a group Obama has traditionally struggled with. A month ago, Obama was down 13 points in Florida among people 65 and older; today heâs up 4. On the specific question of Medicare, Obama was down 4 points among Florida seniors in August; today heâs up 5 points. (The Quinnipiac Poll re-shuffled its age-groups between August and September, so you wonât be make apples-to-apples comparisons by eyeballing their crosstabs. But the super-kind people at Quinnipiac re-reshuffled them for me.)
The numbers for Ohio are similar: In August, Obama was down 8 among seniors in the state; today heâs up 1. A month ago Obama was down 6 points among Ohio seniors on the Medicare issue; today heâs up 6. The turnaround here is simply breathtaking.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#
Well, fast forward a month-and-a-half and the numbers look pretty persuasive. This week the New York Times released a set of polls, conducted by Quinnipiac, assessing the state of the race in Ohio and Florida. The top-line numbers were jaw-dropping enough: Obamaâs lead in Ohio grew from six to ten over the last month, and from three to nine in Florida. (Itâs better to focus on the change here than the magnitude, which is highly sensitive to polling methodology.) But once you look at the internal numbers, theyâre even less kind to Romney. More to the point, they suggest Ryan has done enormous damage to the ticket.
Back in late August, Obama led Romney on the question of who would handle Medicare better by 8 points in Florida and 10 points in Ohio; now heâs up 15 in Florida and 16 in Ohio. And the problems are especially acute among senior citizens, a group Obama has traditionally struggled with. A month ago, Obama was down 13 points in Florida among people 65 and older; today heâs up 4. On the specific question of Medicare, Obama was down 4 points among Florida seniors in August; today heâs up 5 points. (The Quinnipiac Poll re-shuffled its age-groups between August and September, so you wonât be make apples-to-apples comparisons by eyeballing their crosstabs. But the super-kind people at Quinnipiac re-reshuffled them for me.)
The numbers for Ohio are similar: In August, Obama was down 8 among seniors in the state; today heâs up 1. A month ago Obama was down 6 points among Ohio seniors on the Medicare issue; today heâs up 6. The turnaround here is simply breathtaking.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#
