The Deniers told us COVID doesn't hurt Children

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modeling study

Findings

The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7–90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100–2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400–5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100–497 900) children aged 0–4 years, 736 800 (726 900–746 500) children aged 5–9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900–2 174 200) children aged 10–17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood.
  • Globally, 76.5% (95% CrI 76.3–76.7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23.5% (23·3–23·7) were maternal orphans.
In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood.

Interpretation

Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic.
  • Over the entire 20-month period, 5.0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5.2 million children lost a parent or caregiver.
Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally.

Results

From the end of the first 14-month period on April 30, 2021, to the end of the new 6-month period on Oct 31, 2021, the number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7–90·4), increasing from 2 737 300 (1 976 100–2 987 000) children during March 1, 2020–April 30, 2021, to 5 200 300 (3 619 400–5 731 400) children during March 1, 2020–Oct 31, 2021 (table 1).

During the 6 month-period from May 1 to Oct 31, 2021, at least 2 463 100 (95% CrI 1 643 300–2 744 500) children experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death (table 1). Back calculations using new mortality data for our original 14-month study period yielded substantially higher minimum estimates for numbers of children affected by orphanhood and caregiver death than previously reported...

Covid-Orphaned-Children-Global.png


Covid-Orphaned-Children-Global-1.png


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wrbtrader
 
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I've noticed two growing common phrases used by researchers and those with statistical analysis in Pediatrics...involving children that lose their caregiver due to Covid Death...
  • Orphaned Children
  • Hidden Pandemic
There's even a site that keeps real-time data...

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/orphanhood_calculator/#/country/Global

Plus trends via ourworldindata.org

India has the most Covid Orphaned Children...so much that it distorts the comparison to other countries. Thus, the first trend chart below includes India and the second trend chart does not include India so we can see a clearer trend with the countries of my interest.

Covid-Gobal-Orphaned-Children.png



Covid-Gobal-Orphaned-Children-1.png


The estimates shown are minimums for the numbers of children affected by COVID-19 and excess deaths during the pandemic, following the statistical methodology for global extrapolations in Hillis, Unwin, Chen et al, "Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study", The Lancet, 2021 and "Children: The Hidden Pandemic 2021. A joint report of COVID-19 associated orphanhood and a strategy for action." Further technical documentation is available here.

In addition, there's growing violence against adolescents plus sexual exploitation of adolescents (teenagers) that are orphaned (on their own) due to a Covid Death of their caregiver along with a dramatic rise in violence from adolescents towards society.

The latter reminds me of the recent violent crime stories in the media. I wonder how many are Covid Orphaned Children/Adolescents.
  • Think about the stories in the United States and Canada about children that lost both their parents as Covid Deaths...then the same children not allowed to go to the hospital to mourn those parents in the last days of ICU and then again the restrictive burial of those parents in this Pandemic.
wrbtrader
 
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A hidden pandemic of COVID-19
How psychologists are helping children who have lost caregivers to COVID-19

...While losing a parent or caregiver is always a challenge to a child’s mental health, these traumas are magnified in a situation like COVID-19. A study published by The Lancet and led by epidemiologist Susan Hillis, PhD, who served on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 International Task Force, called such orphanhood a “hidden pandemic” and pointed to the likelihood of the tragic reverberations being felt well past childhood (The Lancet , Vol. 398, No. 10298, 2021).

Losing a parent to COVID-19

A child may have a wide range of reactions to the loss of a parent or loved one; grief is a difficult journey. “However, when that loss or death is experienced as a traumatic loss, it can derail development,” said Megan Goslin, PhD, a clinical psychologist and associate research scientist at Yale University’s Child Study Center.

Goslin’s work focuses on therapeutic interventions with children and families following potentially traumatic events. “Children can develop post-traumatic symptoms that are over and above the normal grieving process,” she said. “Post-traumatic symptoms can greatly lengthen the mourning process. They can also prevent children from focusing on everyday things, like learning math or making friendships.”

Corinn Elmore, PhD, a pediatric psychologist who works with families through Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, said that during the pandemic she observed that many of her regular patients without previous anxiety began to experience it for the first time. She also said that her patients who already suffered from anxiety started suffering much more acutely.

Children’s grief during the pandemic is complicated grief, said Julian Ford PhD, ABPP, a professor of psychiatry and law and director of the Center for Treatment of Developmental Trauma Disorders at the University of Connecticut. He noted that “the isolation and loneliness many experienced due to pandemic restrictions made it harder for children to feel the support of close friendships or the comfort of additional caregivers (such as extended family), other sources of support (such as teachers or religious leaders), and even the support of the dying parent (who may be quarantining at home or in the hospital)..."

https://www.apa.org/monitor/2021/11/news-hidden-pandemic

----------

In my opinion, both phrases are appropriate...Covid Orphaned Children and Hidden Pandemic.

Losing a parent or caregiver in normal times is tough enough. In contrast, it's much worst to lose a parent or caregiver during the Covid Pandemic as explained at the link above.

wrbtrader
 
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Guy tells me to stop quoting him, has me blocked - but he's the one always responding to my posts first. Every single time.

What a fucking lunatic.
 
Hey Covidiot...you're the one that has been quoting me while you're on my ignore/block list for many months. In fact, I have a screenshot of your message post in which you specifically tell me exactly how you're doing it. :rolleyes:
  • By the way, thanks for the detailed explanation about how you're doing it because I had been complaining to Baron for many months about certain trolls able to quote/troll me without me knowing how they were able to do it. I now know how you guys are doing it and how to prevent Covidiots like you from trolling certain message posts.
It's simple, a troll will troll but I can now control which of my message posts they can troll...the messages they complain about not being able to view a link, image attachment, video. In reality, it's a message post not important to me that I posted to block a troll like yourself from quoting (trolling) my important messages (see video below by one of my favorite music artists is just one tactic I can now use). :cool:

Yet, the real issue is that you don't like it when I reply to your bullshit of doing such and you don't like the tactic that I use to prevent you from quoting my important messages.
  • This isn't rocket science...don't troll and I won't reply by calling out your bullshit.
An example is this message post (you will not be able to quote it) via the fact that I immediately post in my next post (> 11 seconds later) that prevents people like you from circumventing ET block/ignore rules by replying (quoting) those that have you on ignore.
  • Thus, I can't prevent you from trolling but I can prevent you from trolling my message posts that are important to me...forcing you to complain about a different message post not important to me. :sneaky:
Simply, you don't have any counter statistics to the peer-review research/statistics that I post which explains why you're not able to debate the issue except show your ignorance. :rolleyes:

Now back to the topic of the thread...

There a specific groups of Covid Orphaned Children hit the hardest and it will have a lasting impact of social disparities within the United States.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities at National and State Levels

Nationally, COVID-19–associated deaths were distributed across racial and ethnic groups in proportions similar to racial and ethnic distributions of the population (Fig 3A).

However, we found substantial disparities in distributions of COVID-19–associated death of primary caregivers across racial and ethnic groups. We estimate White children account for 35% of children who lost primary caregivers, whereas White persons represent 61% of the total population.

In contrast, children of racial and ethnic minorities account for 65% of children losing primary caregivers, compared with 39% of the total population. Hispanic and Black children account for 32% and 26%, respectively, of all children losing their primary caregiver compared with 19% and 13% of the total population. Similar patterns occurred across many states (Fig 3B). For example, although Black populations represent <40% of the population and bear 45% and 40% of COVID-19–associated deaths in Mississippi and Louisiana, respectively, Black children comprise the majority of children losing primary caregivers (57% and 54%, respectively).

Additionally, we compared COVID-19-associated deaths by race and ethnicity per 100 000 residents aged >15 years (Fig 4A) and estimated loss of primary caregivers per 100 000 children aged <18 years by race and ethnicity (Fig 4B). Both overall and in many states, we found higher mortality rates in White persons and higher rates of loss of primary caregivers among children of racial and ethnic minorities.
In another thread, I posted about the reasons why Indigenous Americans in some states have less Covid Orphaned Children than Indigenous Americans in other states.

Covid-Orphaned-Children-United-States-1.png


Covid-Orphaned-Children-United-States.png


P.S. I don't use tweets by others to support a narrative unlike many.

wrbtrader
 
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There’s no return to normal for millions of children orphaned during Covid
By Seth Flaxman and Susan HillisMarch 30, 2022

Covid-Orphaned-Children-India.png


Forgotten in the calls for a “new normal” and the shuffle toward it are the millions of children around the world whose parent or guardian has died from Covid-19. Their post-pandemic lives will be anything but normal.

In a study published recently in the journal Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, we and several co-authors estimated that, in the first 20 months of the pandemic, more than 5 million children have lost a parent or other caregiver living in the home, such as a grandmother or grandfather. By the two-year anniversary of the pandemic in March 2022, the Covid-19 orphanhood calculator shows this number has grown to more than 7 million children.

Consider the story of 2 1/2-year-old Diana (not her real name), who lives in rural Zambia. Her mother died before the pandemic, shortly after Diana’s birth, and her grandmother stepped in to become her sole caregiver. Three months ago, Diana’s grandmother became sick with Covid, with no one else at home to help care for the two of them. After nine days, she died, leaving boiling water on the stove for Diana’s morning tea. The toddler, seeing that no one was making tea, tried to do it herself. But she spilled the scalding water on her scalp and shoulders.

Her screams reached her grandmother’s neighbors, Rev. Billiance Chondwe and his wife, Catherine, who rushed to find a car to get Diana to the nearest hospital, about a 45-minute drive. When Diana was released from the hospital, the Chondwes cared for Diana in their home.
In our study, we were able to identify the groups of children most affected by caregivers’ deaths. More than half of the children affected are like Diana, mourning a recent loss, because the Delta variant accelerated Covid-19 deaths in 2021. In just six months, the worldwide total of children affected doubled from 2.7 million as of May 2021 to 5.2 million children by the end of October 2021. The toll has kept rising.

For various demographic and epidemiological reasons, three-quarters of children worldwide who experienced the death of a parent during the pandemic lost their fathers who, in many cultures, are the principal breadwinners.
  • Studies show that paternally orphaned children who do not get the help they need are at increased risk of exploitation, abuse, teen pregnancy, poverty, and vulnerability to violent extremism.
As global health researchers and experts in child and family welfare who also study the prevention of violence toward and vulnerability of children, we hear stories from around the world about what the death of parents and grandparent caregivers is doing to children and families. We also hear about those who step in to make a difference for the children left behind.

Individuals like us, readers like you, organizations, and countries must acknowledge the responsibility to help children left behind through concrete actions.

One place to start is by building on the success of U.S. governmental programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for HIV/AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) that have provided support for 20 years to the millions of children orphaned by AIDS. PEPFAR has used best practices and evidence-based models for protecting orphans and vulnerable children, and collaborated with national and local governmental, non-governmental, and faith- and community-based organizations to support basic needs like food and education, and to invest in family-based support services to keep children in loving families and out of orphanages. Such efforts need to be expanded and sustained in countries around the globe for children orphaned by Covid-19.
That, however, starts with accepting that we do not get to simply turn the page on the pandemic, saying “How sad,” and moving on. Instead, we should be asking “How can I help?”

Although the numbers that we and our colleagues revealed in our research are large, for a child whose parent or caregiver has suddenly died the only number that matters is one. In Diana’s case, that “one” was the Chondwes. Like them, each of us can be “the one” by offering practical and compassionate support.

Each of us can also be the voice for many. It’s a simple thing to reach out to members of Congress to urge them to include children who have lost a parent or primary caregiver in Covid response plans — and emphasize that the U.S. can lead by example through ensuring Covid-related orphanhood is on the agenda for President Biden’s second Global Covid-19 Leaders Summit in April.

The U.S. led the world with its exemplary generosity in responding to the extreme threats for 7 million orphaned and vulnerable children during the past 20 years of the AIDS pandemic. Americans invested in the ongoing health, educational, psychosocial, and economic support of these children and, in so doing, ensured their recovery and resilience.
  • The U.S. can once again can show that the American people are dedicated to the welfare of the millions of bereaved children carrying a heavy burden of pain and loss in just the first two years of the Covid pandemic.
As Nelson Mandela once said, “There can be no keener revelation of a society’s soul than the way in which it treats its children.”

The Chondwes continued helping Diana by searching for a relative who could become her caregiver. They found her great-aunt, a widow in a nearby village, who agreed to adopt her. The pastor’s wife in that village has been visiting Diana weekly to provide psychosocial and spiritual support. But the new family still needs food, as well as transport to get Diana to the medical check-ups she requires. Investments are needed now to support these essential aspects of Diana’s care and growth.

The world has surpassed 6 million Covid-related deaths, and what was once shocking has become for many people merely a statistic. Many accept the daily death toll — unless it personally affects them — because they feel powerless to do otherwise. We look away, explain away, rationalize.
  • But we cannot do that with the children left behind by this terrible scourge.
Seth Flaxman is an associate professor in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Oxford. Susan Hillis is the coordinator of the Global Reference Group on Children Affected by Covid-19 and the former senior technical advisor for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Covid-19 Response Team.
wrbtrader
 
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