How about Asia?
The Demolition of Russia's Economy
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
How about Asia?
What's the over/under on it actually happening and lasting more than 60 days before the EU goes into collapse?
Also, do you have a link?
You "know" things that you're being told by Kremlin. You cannot believe even one thing Kremlin tells you. I am reading the socials - things on the ground, people who are experts in their fields reporting on stuff.
Example: all stores are switching from paper receipts to electronic only. Why? Because Finns closed the borders and all paper tape came from them.
Example: Sankt Peterburg can get VERY cold in the winter. They, and other regions in Russia, have very extensive and elaborate and expensive to maintain central heating systems. One tiny detail - in order for the pipes not to erode very quickly, hydrazine is used. Russia produces very little of that, most was imported from abroad, these imports have stopped. It is projected that failures of the central heating systems will start mid-winter next year.
Example: Russians cannot produce white smooth paper stock because the chemicals for that come from abroad. Thus offices are conserving paper, and switching to brown rough paper stock, which will abrade the printers quickly. Russia is about to cancel ЕГЭ - the SAT equivalents - this year, because of that.
etc. etc. etc. There are literally hundreds of such examples. Your Kremlin sources won't tell you about that.
I think I’m calling it as it stands. Russia has a say and their emergency measures have propped the ruble up for now. Their draw down of reserves does paint a poor picture going forward. Russia will either need the western sanctions lifted or will have to build a shadow market outside of swift.
If their rate of drawdown continues as it did last month and frozen reserves stay frozen, the point of reckoning looks like July-ish.
As I always mention, the world is not static. All of this subject to change. I remain where I was though, the ruble is not a free floating currency and its exchange rate is false. Russia is a cash in - cash out business right now. Look to it’s month over month for its health.
First of all, you mean "China" not "Asia" - because quite a lot of "Asia" is sanctioning Russia. Then - look on the map. The cost of transporting things from China vs Europe. And there are a lot of things that China either cannot or will not supply or buy from Russia. Like the latest chips and other electronics. Like the Chinese companies stopping oil purchases from Russia.
You have to remember - this is just the beginning. The isolation of Russia from the civilized world will only grow. Cancer cells have to be either excised or, failing that, walled off.
Ah, there it is again. I have a direct line to the Kremlin. At least you don't try to hide your lunacy like GWB does.
Vlad probably watching the covid situation in China more these days than the war in Ukraine.
Because Vlad is such a compassionate kind of guy who is worried about the wellbeing of the Chinese? Ahhh. let's just say not to that.
It's because he is back to the 1950's now with his "gas station with an army economy" and therefore cares only about the price of oil. And if the Chinese economy keeps strugging with the virus, and therefore oil demand let's up, Vlad going to be making less at his gas station.
As I have said in detail a couple times before, I am not a believer that you can turn Russia into a roadkill so if that is one's hope and expectation then there will be all sorts of disappointments. But if you have more modest goals- as I do- that a Soviet era dictator is going to have his economy returned to the Soviet era, well that is very do-able. Might already be there if you mix a little more time into the equation.
Because Vlad is such a compassionate kind of guy who is worried about the wellbeing of the Chinese? Ahhh. let's just say not to that.
It's because he is back to the 1950's now with his "gas station with an army economy" and therefore cares only about the price of oil. And if the Chinese economy keeps strugging with the virus, and therefore oil demand let's up, Vlad going to be making less at his gas station.
As I have said in detail a couple times before, I am not a believer that you can turn Russia into a roadkill so if that is one's hope and expectation then there will be all sorts of disappointments. But if you have more modest goals- as I do- that a Soviet era dictator is going to have his economy returned to the Soviet era, well that is very do-able. Might already be there if you mix a little more time into the equation.
No, I mean Asia. Please post a map of the countries sanctioning Russia in Asia and those still working with Russia. And I don't mean silly sanctions like "no more flights", I mean they've cut off Russia.
I don't disagree with this at all. I've maintained that you have to attack the elite and make them turn on Putin. That's the best outcome you can have.
Japan. South Korea. Singapore. Taiwan. You know, the big ones (in economic sense).
Russia is desperately hoping China will not abandon them. Because if China does, Russia is finished completely.