The Demolition of Russia's Economy

Of the ruble? You cannot exchange the ruble domestically at all anymore and before it was capped at $10k. Banks are barred completely from selling foreign currency, and businesses are required to exchange 80% of their foreign currency for rubles. Russia is also attempting to force the selling of the ruble by making certain countries pay for oil in rubles. These are demand induces and not market back trading.

As I said before, lift these and the ruble crashes but you cannot knock Russia for taking these actions either. However, they will only hold until stores of imported goods run out and the controls will fail, or theoretically should. Russia is in a race to reorganize its economy on the fly right now.

Please don’t misunderstand me as saying Russia doesn’t hVe a say in whether or not their economy goes to shit or how badly it will suffer. They certainly do. We will have to see what kind of schemes they come up with. What I will say is there is no way I would want to be holding rubles for the foreseeable future and I can’t see too many businesses or countries that would want to either.

All I'm asking you is when Russia limited buying and selling of the ruble. The date.
 

And based on that (and the mark on this chart - which is that time) your belief is that the ruble has appreciated because the Russian government limited buying and selling of the ruble, and nothing else?

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And based on that (and the mark on this chart - which is that time) your belief is that the ruble has appreciated because the Russian government limited buying and selling of the ruble, and nothing else?

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Thats a good question. I wouldn’t say nothing else as there is a whole world to to consider and of course the Russians are signaling some progress toward a reduction in hostilities with Ukraine is a global factor.

However, I would say that the controls put in place by the CRB and the government is the overwhelming force that gives the appearance of a higher ruble. They’re controlling domestic inflation rather well for the time being.

Is there some other greater force to the swing in the ruble?
 
No sane country which endured the Soviet Union wants to stand with Putin's Russia. They know the future for Russia and its allies is bleak.

Kazakhstan does not want to be behind new iron curtain - deputy minister
https://news.yahoo.com/kazakhstan-does-not-want-behind-101536534.html

Companies exiting Russia due to the war in Ukraine are welcome to move production to Kazakhstan, the country's deputy foreign minister told a German newspaper, saying Kazakhstan would not want to be on the wrong side of a new "iron curtain."

Countries should not come merely to avoid sanctions against Russia, "but all companies with a good reputation that want to move their production here are welcome," Die Welt on Monday quoted Roman Vasilenko as saying.

"If there is a new iron curtain, we do not want to be behind it," he said, referring to the Western term for a dividing line between eastern and western Europe during the Cold War.

A raft of Western companies are shuttering businesses in Russia in response to pressure from consumers to take a stand against the invasion of Ukraine.

Kazakhstan has avoided criticising Russia's move to invade a fellow ex-Soviet republic, but Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said this month that all countries must strictly adhere to the norms and principles of the United Nations charter.

Indeed, as I posted a couple times quite a while ago, that some of these crapistan countries are obscure but they are small signs (which are now becoming bigger signs) that Vlad is out there by himself even among some of his closest supporters and neighbors. I said that when I saw that Putin had requested troops from Kazakshstan and the they said no. Excuse me. But did you say, "no". And they stood with Ukraine, hello......you want to die...Vlad just put you on his hit list. And then ditto for Ubekistan...and probably some other crapistans that I am not up to speed on.

And yes they are still trading with Russia because they are still in that orbit but- countries within the orbit parting with Vlad on Ukraine and refusing to send troops is A big help to the world. Ukraine be like: I WILL TAKE THAT, THANK YOU.

Since I covered it some previous posts, I will keep it short but, as a reminder, these crapistan countries are wall-to-wall Uyghars and China fears greatly that the Taliban will rally with them to form a more organized muslim Central Asia and give China a YUGE problem on its back door. China was hoping that having Russia and Putin as a vassal state would control that but now Putin is losing control of them. So there be that.
 
Thats a good question. I wouldn’t say nothing else as there is a whole world to to consider and of course the Russians are signaling some progress toward a reduction in hostilities with Ukraine is a global factor.

However, I would say that the controls put in place by the CRB and the government is the overwhelming force that gives the appearance of a higher ruble. They’re controlling domestic inflation rather well for the time being.

Is there some other greater force to the swing in the ruble?

I believe there is - I believe that people are looking at Russian assets on the cheap and are trying to get in at a perceived "bottom". That, plus the fact that the supposed "sanctions" are a total joke, are isolated to a group of Western nations and no where near as biting as they were claimed to be.
 
I believe there is - I believe that people are looking at Russian assets on the cheap and are trying to get in at a perceived "bottom". That, plus the fact that the supposed "sanctions" are a total joke, are isolated to a group of Western nations and no where near as biting as they were claimed to be.

We will see then and this isn’t exactly a static situation either. I do disagree with you. I think the Russians can hold on for some time with what they have but their well for much of their imports is capped and their ability to move in the global market is severely limited. Their exports are pretty well stuck in local currencies, ie rupees to rubles.

As I said in some earlier posts, the Russians can look to some one to one trade like with India and China for some food stuffs, medical goods and even low quality tech but there’s not too much other than that outside of the dollar/euro market. The Russians need to get dollars and euros moving in and out to stabilize their currency before they can take controls off. Otherwise they will end up piles of rupees and very little to spend it on.
 
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