The "Delta" cycle system Wilder

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easymon1

nattybumppo said: "This looks like the "Delta" cycle system popularized (but not discovered) by Wilder."
"I have read Wilder's book, but I haven't tested it outside of the examples that he provides. It seems a bit time consuming, and I prefer charts that I can size up quickly. However,
...it might be worth the time if it really has phenomenal accuracy, but I tend to be skeptical of methods that claim high rates of accuracy. Everything seems to be mildly probablistic whether it is lagging or non-lagging.
Has anyone ever found an indicator that gives better than a small edge? I am open minded, but I doubt it, so I prefer to get my edge from simple but robust indicators, patterns, etc. that take very little time to assess or update.
nattybumppo

Sounds like a Thread To Me.

the "Delta" cycle system Wilder
J. Welles Wilder Jr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Welles_Wilder_Jr.

the "Delta" cycle system Wilder
https://yippy.com/search?query=the+"Delta"+cycle+system+Wilder

https://www.bing.com/search?q=the+"Delta"+cycle+system+Wilder&form=QBLH&sp=-1&pq=the+"delta"+cycle+system+wilder&sc=1-31&qs=n&sk=&cvid=D5E73F7A369047F4A082E9ABEA76CA32

Welles Wilder.jpg
Welles Wilder Delta Contents.jpg
 

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easymon1 said:
"I have read Wilder's book, but I haven't tested it outside of the examples that he provides. I Everything seems to be mildly probablistic whether it is lagging or non-lagging.
Has anyone ever found an indicator that gives better than a small edge? I am open minded, but I doubt it, so I prefer to get my edge from simple but robust indicators, patterns, etc. that take very little time to assess or update.
nattybumppo

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His PSAR can be helpful some.
Moving average$ with lots of work can work well...................................................................... But they really dont do the work ,we have to do that work.
NOT sure if anything works well with only ''a little time'' BUT for sure\ its NOT rocket science.......................................................................................................................
 
I don't feel like finding the extremely dusty box that contains my copy of this book, but I studied (Wilders) Delta Phenomenon in the mid 1990s.

At the time I was cobbling together a trading plan based on commodity cycles. Delta Phenom is based on LUNAR movements and corresponding financial market tendencies. It is not a financial cycle, but there is similarity to cycles, so it was part of my cobbling.

Delta Phenom is NOT a stand alone system. You will lose. It has since been shown that the LUNAR methodology in the book is wrong, and can be bettered with a different "rotation". There was an ETer a few years back that laid claim to that betterment. I don't remember his name, but he quit ET anyway. I'll search old posts later to see if I can find the thread.

Anyway, Delta Phenom is based on phases of the moon. Additionally, as presented in the book, it has a very important, but 100% subjective part called the inversion window. The betterment I mentioned "fixes" that subjective portion.

I removed Delta from my stuff many many years ago...I likened the subjectiveness to that found with usage of EW. The subjectiveness alone makes it a nevermind study for me.

FWIW, I do have an astrological component in my current trading methods and plans. Delta Phenom/Phases of the moon is not it. However I still do find it fun to know when the full and new moons are due to occur.
 
A theory similar to the Delta Phenomenon is in
Lars Von Thienen's hypothesis is averaging price waves (each created from a sum of sinusoids) from 8, 11, 19, 27, 30, and 38 years ago approximates waves for the future because that's when the Sun, Moon, and Earth are in about the same relative positions.

The book has an example of this for predicted turning points for the 2008 Dow Jones Industrial Average.
upload_2021-2-23_16-30-38.png
 
tiddlywinks said:
There was an ETer a few years back that laid claim to that betterment. I don't remember his name, but he quit ET anyway. I'll search old posts later to see if I can find the thread.
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Here are two of his threads.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/medium-term-trading-of-sp500-with-cycle-analysis.335321/
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/stock-market-up-move-for-december-2019.336552/page-7

And here is a post from a different alias with his improvement on the Delta Phenomenon.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ve-expected-in-july.98252/page-4#post-1535821
 
I have intraday version of Delta phenomenon for SP500. It works decent but I could not automate it hence had to sideline.
 
Regarding the guy who claimed to have the improvement, I actually met him personally and he shared his approach with me in more detail. It looked like it might have some value but there is some time involved and it is a process to make sure you have all the right cycles -- and even then some interpretation is involved. There were a few times when he thought something was going to play out but I interpreted HIS work differently. I also don't think he was naturally well-suited for the trading / putting on risk part of the game.

I do remember one time when there was a particular currency pair cycle that he shared with me which really jumped out at me (the cycles aligned really well) so I looked at my indicators and it looked like a good set-up and it turned out to be a really good trade for me. At some point, I may go back and spend more time with it to see if it at least offers a roadmap to prepare for trades but, at the same time, I have a pretty good approach now and because I'm using multiple time frames I may be getting the same information just from what I'm already doing.



ph1l said:
Here are two of his threads.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/medium-term-trading-of-sp500-with-cycle-analysis.335321/
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/stock-market-up-move-for-december-2019.336552/page-7

And here is a post from a different alias with his improvement on the Delta Phenomenon.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ve-expected-in-july.98252/page-4#post-1535821
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tiddlywinks said:
I don't feel like finding the extremely dusty box that contains my copy of this book, but I studied (Wilders) Delta Phenomenon in the mid 1990s.

There was an ETer a few years back that laid claim to that betterment. I don't remember his name, but he quit ET anyway. I'll search old posts later to see if I can find the thread.
More...
 
formikatrading said:
which really jumped out at me (the cycles aligned really well) so I looked at my indicators and it looked like a good set-up and it turned out to be a really good trade for me.
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1) which really jumped out at me (the cycles aligned really well)
2) so I looked at my indicators and it looked like a good set-up
...and likely the setup was simultaneous with some Price Action Triggers,

3) and it turned out to be a really good trade for me
 
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