Quote from southamerica:
Ogeima: Many factors come into play in the demise of a superpower. You say it yourself when you say that Afghanistan "had something to do" with the end of the USSR or that it "turned out to be its killer". It says that it was at least a symptom, but not necessarily a cause. If you die of the flue when you're 90 yo, did you die because of the flue, or because you were 90 yo? The USSR didn't survive its defeat in Afghanistan but the USA survived its defeat in Vietnam. I wouldn't jump to conclusions with Iraq, so far the US have been prompt to get back on their feet - whether or not they are nowadays made of clay, future will tell.
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July 30, 2006
SouthAmerica: The demise of a superpower happens over a long period of time â at least in the past for example the British Empire, the Soviet Empire, and so onâ¦.
The Afghanistan war debacle was one of the last nails in the coffin for the Soviets.
You said: âThe USSR didn't survive its defeat in Afghanistan but the USA survived its defeat in Vietnam.â
But if you look around; Russia still over there and they did not disappear from the map of the globe. You donât die completely â the Russians, and the British still around. You have a major decline in economic terms, and you lose your status as a superpower. You lose your clout, and prestige in the eyes of other people. It is a question of perception from where you are looking.
Indeed, when I say the USSR didn't survive this defeat, I mean "the USSR as a superpower didn't survive", not "the USSR as physical territories on Earth didn't survive".
Quote from southamerica:
Regarding the US it is clear to me that the United States is declining very fast. Iraq will be very costly for the United States in many ways.
In Afghanistan the Mujahideen armed with stinger missiles gave a very hard time to the Soviet army - Bin Laden became a stinger missile expert in this war earning the nom de guerre "The Archer." And people such as Bin Laden became a key in helping the Mujahideen win the war against the Soviet Union.
In Iraq there are many reasons for the eventual defeat of the United States â among them is the weather and the type of natural environment they have in Iraq. The US army is being destroyed by the very high and constant heat and by the sand storms. Sand and any type of machine donât work well together â sand destroys your engines â helicopters, trucks, tanks, airplanes, and so onâ¦.
All your mechanic stuff requires constant maintenance and replacement. Iraq has turned out to reduce the life span of all these war toys and replacing them is going to cost probably close to $ 1 trillion dollars.
Iraq is a very expensive war to fight regarding its maintenance and replacement of all things necessary to wage war.
On top of that the US has all the other costs related to war â in lives, wounded soldiers, reconstruction, and so onâ¦.
Today the US government has $ 8 trillion dollars in outstanding cumulative debt â the US states has another $ 2 trillion dollars in outstanding debt. And the US government has on top of that another $ 60 - $ 70 trillion dollars in outstanding liabilities â and they are all in the process of coming due.
I agree that the debt problem seems huge, but then i don't have the knowledge to say that it can lead only to one irremediable path.
Quote from southamerica:
It is clear to me that the US is losing its clout and prestige around the world â a sure sign of a declining superpower.
Yes and no. Players of its team don't stick to the US captain as much anymore, true. But then, it may be so because there's no other team left as opponents, only some people running naked across the field...
When there s only one superpower, it's natural for criticisms to polarize on it.
When China will be properly armed and developed and will claim its share of the throne, it will be easier for the US to gather coalitions of interests. Are you saying that by that time, the US won't be a superpower anymore? This I find plausible, but I won't bet my farm on it.
Quote from southamerica:
The British still think they are a superpower today even tough they have not been one since the end of WW I. It is hard to let goâ¦..
I'm not british nor have I ever lived there so I can't talk for them, but I don't feel that they think they're still a superpower, nor that their century lasted beyond WWI.
It's not that I disagree with you, it's just that I think you jump to conclusions too quickly, imo. The US, declining ot not, and despite the rise of other powers, still has ressources. I don't believe the captain will be naked soon...
But, which "time frame" are you speaking of?