The Day Trading Thread

volpri said:
Using your chart let me show you something you may be missing. A symmetrical triangle we know is just a channel with converging lines. The bears and bulls are about equal in the pressures they are exerting. That is why the pattern forms. However, the pressure is also BUILDING on both sides. Price will not stay in this pattern. There WILL be a BO. It is 50/50 in either direction. UNLESS you look at the context within which the triangle has formed and the triangles location within the larger context.

Usually the BO will be in the direction of the larger context. But, we must also remember any BO will be followed by an attempt by the other side to make the BO fail. And often, the BO WILL fail and the triangle just becomes the final flag in a bear trend (in this case) jbefore a reversal takes place.

Ok ... look at this chart of yours with these concepts in mind. We can’t see all the context but the immediate context is a bear channel (I drew in the bottom channel line).

In this case the apex is at the top of the bear channel. The expected BO attempt would likely be south (converging patterns here...channel and triangle). So, to short is the higher probability trade. What is a logical PT? Somewhere in the bottom third of the channel.

Then what? Cover and reverse and go long. If I did so and the long position goes against me I would just add to the losing position. Why? BO’s out of a channel fail most of the time and price will go back into the channel. So, if I averaged down on the long I would exit around the middle of the channel. Why not the top for the exit? Because it is a bear channel so pressure is down and I wouldn’t try to capture alot of profit. If I went long at the bottom of the channel and did not need to average down and price reverses up I might hold and exit in the top third of the channel.



View attachment 203706

So what happened?

Price broke south out of Apex and traded into the bottom third (dashed blue lines) of the bear channel then reversed back up on that green bull bar into the top third of the channel and (even though you don’t show it in your chart) I suspect it went on up into the top third of the channel and maybe even further as the bulls pushed back against the BO of the triangle (trying to make it fail).

As mentioned earlier this is how I would trade this. My opinion only.

View attachment 203712

BOTTOM LINE: any pattern I am considering trading I want to see where it is or has formed at within the larger pattern and what type of pattern the larger pattern is. In addition, at times I will look at a smaller TF and a larger TF than the one I am placing trades in and which contains the pattern i am attempting to trade. Converging patterns can give a better edge. NOT EVERY SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE IS EQUAL IN PRESSURES IN TERMS OF DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT ALTHOUGH THE VERY TRIANGLE ITSELF IS EQUAL IN PRESSURES AND THAT IS WHY IT IS SYMMETRICAL. Maybe this will make sense or could be it just muddies the waters for some traders?? Anyways it is my opinion and how I would trade this. But I am a scalper and a discretional one at that.
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volpri,

Thank you so much volpri,

Yesterday, I did not even identify the bear channel. Thanks
 
volpri said:
View attachment 203759 I ask because this is trading range behavior big up..big down..big up..big down..big up...probable another big down to follow. You are buying in the top 1/3 of the range. I just wanted to know your reasoning as I would be shorting and adding to my shorts. It is headed for a quadruple top too.

Of course, it could BO but odds favor if it does it will fail. But if it were to succeed with follow thru then I would exit my shorts (i.e. take my loss) double up and go long.

Post a chart showing what happens later.

Thanks
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Thanks for the chart,

The BO did happen, but I went to sleep. BO happened after a few tries.

You would have made money on the selling towards the resistance area, because you scalp when selling pressure occurred at resistance.


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Well, If I can talk about the wins, I should be able to talk about the losses. Took a -$400 loss today on one trade, 1 contract

-40 tick loss. I think I should start my own journal and get out of MarkBrown thread lol.

That is it for me for the week.

upload_2019-6-7_12-53-40.png
 

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I think you went short in no man's land. Market went up after bottoming out at $52.65 and when it retraced you read it as another short entry. But market was pretty choppy before then so no real direction.

One filter you might want to look into using is waiting for swing lows or highs to be taken out before determining something is an actual reversal v. pullback.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Well, If I can talk about the wins, I should be able to talk about the losses. Took a -$400 loss today on one trade, 1 contract

-40 tick loss. I think I should start my own journal and get out of MarkBrown thread lol.

That is it for me for the week.

View attachment 203817
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You seem like a good and decent fellow who works really hard trying to do well with trading. I can see you put a lot of efforts into it..

What I've in my mind is that if you are tired of trading CL and isn't able to figure a way out one day. I mean that you totally give up on it, then perhaps I can give you some guidance how to scalp ES with a much better winning rate. I can either give you a scalp setup to begin with or giving you trading ideas how to trade and ride along with intraday trend. My methods will be completely different than what you are doing now. Besides, you have to bare with me along the way because my english is terrible lol. Don't count on my words right now because it's just a friendly thought that I've in my mind while in a good mood.

Well, my taxi is about and I got to go. Will chat more later as my lady is giving me a look.
 
I'm blocking Pedotrader or whatever his name is, every time I click on a subject I see his useless posts cluttering up my screen and immediately attacking everybody who doesn't drink his cool-aid, why doesn't he just trades and act normal.

You have issues and I have no clue what you are trying to prove to yourself by posting useless replies.
 
traderslair said:
I'm blocking Pedotrader or whatever his name is, every time I click on a subject I see his useless posts cluttering up my screen and immediately attacking everybody who doesn't drink his cool-aid, why doesn't he just trades and act normal.

You have issues and I have no clue what you are trying to prove to yourself by posting useless replies.
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Are you talking bout Paducah?
 
volpri said:
Enjoy the beach humbletrader. I’m at the campground in the motorhome. Going to the beach maybe tomm and probably sunday. Have a good weekend.
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Actually, it's too hot to enjoy ocean view right now. Plus, we like Miami much better which we intend to live there for half year starting next September.

So, we are in Macau right now enjoying shopping around. No gambling though, but I take a pic from hotel lobby with casino.

Have a good one...
 
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