The Darkest Storm is About to Descend - You Can't Imagine the Carnage

Quote from limitdown:

I agree with both you and BiLoSellHi!

What is frustrating to normal market demand corrections are the political winds that affect (before the fact) and effect (after the diaster) the economic markets, and the consuming public.

What has been raught against the American people by the Bush-II administration has really caused so much of these problems:

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5) defiently refusing to do anything positive for the American people to provide relief by and from the whitehouse. for example, constant and conflicting direct purchases into the SPR to fuel the rise in oil prices initially and then restricting importation of refined fuel, gas and diesel, thus allowing other countries to absorb world supplies, whereas they had not previously

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8) usage of L. Kudlow on CNBC to constantly barrage world opinion that the US was doing just fine, as a commentator on CNBC, knowing that the facts and reports did not justify the statements
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#5 == Ah yes. You noticed that too? I though it had to do with creating inflation to combat deflation. Looks like either the ruse worked and now its going to stabilize, or the cat's completely out of the bad and ruin is now inevitable. Only time will tell, I suppose, as it does seem that random events keep occuring more frequently these days despite the best of efforts. I have no doubt that was policy de facto, if not in fact.

#8 == C'mon. Who cares about him. He's no different than a maury povich or montel williams, except his subject matter is finance. Don't confuse entertainment with information. Not that others don't however.... Louis Ruskyer was never as entertaining in the old days....
 
Actually as part of my trading I'd like to get some opinions on historic market trends. Specifically, I'd like comments on the likely market volatility coming this October. Historically the big market falls have been in October - so what will this one deliver?
 
Quote from Trendytrader:

So is anyone looking at October as the day?

http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/2008/7/pages/07282008_6162ac88abfb483ea46eea2470a45f3c.aspx
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I think we'll have a nice sideways market for a long time. US assets are back in favor globally and we have GDP of 1.9%. India's CB is doing a nice job of trying to reign in inflation and will probably get it to around 7%. China is also making some effort and should get a nice shot in the arm from the Olympics. Mexico and Brazil, both very large economies, also have inflation largely in check:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={7F698389-F04B-4C93-A25C-9A8C8104FFEA}

While it's true that Russia was downgraded and Europe is struggling, there's little to suggest Black Anything unless maybe we have a larger than expected number of bank runs or $200 oil. Again, I'd start preparing for an oscillating market in an anemic but still living economy for quite awhile.

One more thing: we are seeing some signs of sector rotation working as well. This could indicate the big boys see signs of Spring...
 
Btw, the GDP number was probably on the low side: our growth was likely well above the 1.9% number reported:

You really need to subtract out inventories as this link points out:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/88365-gdp-data-stronger-than-financial-headlines-suggest

"Today’s GDP report, despite posting lower than expected results,shows a real economy that is functioning, and it’s managing to expand despite its troubles. If we exclude the massive decline in inventories, which we believe are overstated and likely to be subject to upward revisions, we get real final sales growth at a 3.9% annual rate.

As we have stated before and continue to reiterate - these numbers are not recessionary. Any aspiration of experiencing a U.S. economy engulfed by a severe recession, is plainly delusional. While the economy is not growing at its full potential, we can’t argue with the fact that no matter what - it's still growing."
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Btw, the GDP number was probably on the low side: our growth was likely well above the 1.9% number reported:

You really need to subtract out inventories as this link points out:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/88365-gdp-data-stronger-than-financial-headlines-suggest

"Today’s GDP report, despite posting lower than expected results,shows a real economy that is functioning, and it’s managing to expand despite its troubles. If we exclude the massive decline in inventories, which we believe are overstated and likely to be subject to upward revisions, we get real final sales growth at a 3.9% annual rate.

As we have stated before and continue to reiterate - these numbers are not recessionary. Any aspiration of experiencing a U.S. economy engulfed by a severe recession, is plainly delusional. While the economy is not growing at its full potential, we can’t argue with the fact that no matter what - it's still growing."
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What the hell... Am I not enlightened?
 
by the way (btw)

thanks for posting this thread...

this politicized pollyana is killing the American people and their dreams, while they are still standing....

WSJ article of Sat/Sun July 19, 2008
Why No Outrage

Through history, outrageous financial behaviour has been met wth outrage. But today Wall Stret's damaging recklessness has been met with near-silence, from a too-tolerant populace, argues Hames Grant.

the article is required reading where I work as a trader, and at a few other houses that my peers have told me about.

it took up 2 full pages of WSJ print, with numerous references to recent movies of wall street speculators, and books on the subjects....

if you can go to the library and read a copy, it might bring you up to speed with the so called "inteligencia", as there is outrage, its just being saved up until they can influence policy and the US elections....since everyone in the present administration seem just too complacent....



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Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Let me tell you something. You think you know that things will get bad with the banks, right?

I mean, there's been doom & gloom all over the news, and predictions of bank failures by the hundreds, right?

You are all prepared, right? Nothing will shock you?

Things are 100x worse than what anyone has publicly been saying.

How do I know this? It's not insider information. It's not a national secret. It's not privileged, nor confidential information.

I have two very friends that work for two different law firms, and they have been taken out of their regular practice areas and reassigned to the foreclosures department.

Most of you have ZERO clue as to how many PROPERTIES (not just residential homes, but commercial, retail, office and industrial) are being foreclosed upon.

They are both telling me that their firms can't hire paralegals or attorneys fast enough to handle the onslaught, and that the senior most partners at their firms view this as unprecedented.

It's so bad, and these people are anything but lazy, that they are considering quitting their jobs. They both refer to it as a black hole. They have told me stories of people just quitting on the spot, in the middle of the day, as a frequent occurrence.

If you have access to any database that lists foreclosed properties, you would be stunned at the broad array of properties - everything from single lots to factories to shopping malls - that are being foreclosed on right now.

Everything I'm telling you is public record. Once banks file foreclosure proceedings, it's all public record.

So, if you have any doubts that we are headed for an absolute crisis, or that properties from the tens of thousands to the hundreds of millions, from New York to Boston to Cleveland to California to the Hamptons to Mercer Island are being foreclosed upon in record numbers - just go check out the public records - whether in your immediate area, or on a national level.

No one can understand the size and scope of this crisis until they actually view the reams and reams of foreclosure listings, and see that no price point, location, category, size or shape is immune.

You will come back to this thread, if you do this, and be able to do nothing but say "wow, you're right."

A tidal wave is about to hit. It's 60 feet high, just off shore, and building in velocity and height at a rapid clip.
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