The Darkest Storm is About to Descend - You Can't Imagine the Carnage

[PohPoh]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I believe it. On one hand places are packed but on the other with soaring food costs and ect. one NEEDS to be packed if they're to survive. I still wonder how so many young people are able to pay for "bottle service" and $12 Cosmos......

All the items on his menu (and most other places I go) have gone up...

My people (that is, the YOUNG people) are financing their bottle service...used to be money was borrowed to invest, not to be barfed out 4 hours later...
Anyways...that will soon end...

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Impossible. It really is. I've poured over a couple of hundred sales histories in Sherman Oaks, Studio City, Encino and Woodland Hills. (only south of the blvd.) I've also checked out the Strip, WeHo, BH, Bel Air, Brentwood and the Palisades as well. Homes bought in the 89-92 break are up 300% right now.

I'll pick one randomly.

http://www.trulia.com/property/1063686507-4223-Costello-Ave-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91423#sold_data

http://www.trulia.com/property/1043060747-4124-Madelia-Ave-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91403#sold_data

Maybe it was 550, I'll ask her again to confirm, but this was also in West Hills, not SOB...
And not to say that her house isn't 'worth' over a million...but in foreclosure, the comp across the street did just sell for 700...

SOB is excellent stuff (where I live) and should be somewhat stable, but paying 800K for a 50 year old 3 bedroom 1700 sq ft home with a small yard, is just insane.

I'm happy to be renting. It's FAR cheaper to rent.
Over a year ago, I lowballed a bid on a house SOB in Sherman Oaks (they were asking 1.4 and I offered 1.1...)

Since I am a first time buyer, and susceptible to the emotion of this kind of investment, I was PETRIFIED that they were going to accept my offer and I was then SURE that it was the top of the market.

Needless to say they went to a higher offer, thank God.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

I remember you telling that story. I loved it! IMO L.A. is a place ONLY to rent. Who needs the risk of not just depreciation but also quakes, fires, mudslides, Villaraigosa....

Quote from PohPoh:

Maybe it was 550, I'll ask her again to confirm, but this was also in West Hills, not SOB...
And not to say that her house isn't 'worth' over a million...but in foreclosure, the comp across the street did just sell for 700...

SOB is excellent stuff (where I live) and should be somewhat stable, but paying 800K for a 50 year old 3 bedroom 1700 sq ft home with a small yard, is just insane.

I'm happy to be renting. It's FAR cheaper to rent.
Over a year ago, I lowballed a bid on a house SOB in Sherman Oaks (they were asking 1.4 and I offered 1.1...)

Since I am a first time buyer, and susceptible to the emotion of this kind of investment, I was PETRIFIED that they were going to accept my offer and I was then SURE that it was the top of the market.

Needless to say they went to a higher offer, thank God.

 

[Mvic]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Sounds about right bro and south of Ventura Blvd the shit keeps right on pumping higher.

Isn't the equity in the home more relevant than the home price? Doesn't really matter if the house that is now selling for 800K once sold for $150K if they refinanced and took out equity at the height of the bubble.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Mvic:

Isn't the equity in the home more relevant than the home price? Doesn't really matter if the house that is now selling for 800K once sold for $150K if they refinanced and took out equity at the height of the bubble.

Except the home is fungible for the cash they owe. As far as I know the hillside communities in L.A. aren't down an iota from their peak. If they are I can't even imagine how expensive they were in 05/06!

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from Mvic:

Isn't the equity in the home more relevant than the home price? Doesn't really matter if the house that is now selling for 800K once sold for $150K if they refinanced and took out equity at the height of the bubble.

Truth...
I heard a story about a woman who bought her house 30 years ago for 50K. At the peak, it was valued at almost 15 times that.
So, she refinanced...and refinanced...and consumed, and consumed...and now her house is worth about 400K, but she owes 500K...

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I remember you telling that story. I loved it! IMO L.A. is a place ONLY to rent. Who needs the risk of not just depreciation but also quakes, fires, mudslides, Villaraigosa....

No doubt..
I was looking at upstate NY..
6.5 acres, 425 ft of waterfront on the St. Lawrence, 5 bd house, for $599K

Here's a 3bd CONDO in my area for 785K
http://www.trulia.com/property/1062879862-14290-Dickens-St-103-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91423

 

[ByLoSellHi]

This thread deals not with the next month or so....

...rather, the next year or so.

If you can pound a profit trading around the cones until the music stops, go for it.

Earnings have been a gigantic mixed bag of everything and nothing, and who's high on the future?

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from PohPoh:

No doubt..
I was looking at upstate NY..
6.5 acres, 425 ft of waterfront on the St. Lawrence, 5 bd house, for $599K

Here's a 3bd CONDO in my area for 785K
http://www.trulia.com/property/1062879862-14290-Dickens-St-103-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91423

Nice place BUT Jeez.

The funny thing though is New York guys are reading this thinking
such a deal!!

 

[Illum]

I dont buy priced in. Market is wrong imo. They priced in second half recovery, now trying first half 09. Will fail again. Waiting to short again.